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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Too far south! Dump it! 

You have no right to complain. 😀

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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I assume (no Weatherbell... yet) that the relative silence regarding southern snow maps means King EURO wasn't too nice to us... 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

The Euro continues to think it is snowing here despite it being 40F and still predicts 4" falling overnight. I just don't understand how it can be so wrong. I'd sleep a lot better tonight if I knew there wasn't a chance for snow.

It's impossible to say for sure.  Your area is cut off from the cold easterlies that are making snow to the south of you.  On the other hand, mid levels are going to be cooling shortly.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8

500h_anom.na.png

Blocking, blocking, and more blocking.  Looking more likely every day this is going to last for a long time.  Can we pull off January though?

  • Like 5

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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1 minute ago, bishbish777 said:

I'm not too familiar with the weather dynamics in this area...would you guys say that for tomorrow nights system, that the precip is usually modeled too far south? Or, another way to say, that the bands usually set up farther north than modeled? 

Tomorrow is a different setup. It will focus on the south puget sound more. 

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Just now, bishbish777 said:

I'm not too familiar with the weather dynamics in this area...would you guys say that for tomorrow nights system, that the precip is usually modeled too far south? Or, another way to say, that the bands usually set up farther north than modeled? 

With a band like that, they often push a bit further north than modeled.

  • Like 6

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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1 minute ago, bishbish777 said:

I'm not too familiar with the weather dynamics in this area...would you guys say that for tomorrow nights system, that the precip is usually modeled too far south? Or, another way to say, that the bands usually set up farther north than modeled? 

Generally if they move it’s north, but not a sure thing. 

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Tomorrow is a different setup. It will focus on the south puget sound more. 

Thank God.  One more night like this would kill me.  I know I should just walk away from the forum tonight.  You know how that goes though.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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3 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

I'm not too familiar with the weather dynamics in this area...would you guys say that for tomorrow nights system, that the precip is usually modeled too far south? Or, another way to say, that the bands usually set up farther north than modeled? 

It will trend north. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Generally if they move it’s north, but not a sure thing. 

The precip shield tends to extend farther north than anticipated. The bulk of the precip will be south most likely. This could easily change lol

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Roads are covered and everything. Getting heavier. Unbelievable turn of events! I had no expectation of a changeover, let alone stickage!

Evaporative cooling is crazy sometimes!

I think the warmest sector has already moved through.  The next two days should be pretty much all snow for whatever falls.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I assume (no Weatherbell... yet) that the relative silence regarding southern snow maps means King EURO wasn't too nice to us... 

It was not nice to us. 

Total nonevent

sn10_024h.us_nw.png

 

The big difference between this and the GFS is just how much drier the euro is. Most of the precip never makes it inland. 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

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What a f*cking roller coaster of a storm. Just when we gave up hope, pointed out where models went wrong, and then temps drop and WSW issued. Best start to winter ever.

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The precip shield tends to extend farther north than anticipated. The bulk of the precip will be south most likely. This could easily change lol

A tad north extension would probably help us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The snow has been very light here for the last hour despite the radar showing much heavier precip over us.    I think the warm nose aloft might be moving into my area now.  

Disregard this update... dumping snow again.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

It was not nice to us. 

Total nonevent

sn10_024h.us_nw.png

 

The big difference between this and the GFS is just how much drier the euro is. Most of the precip never makes it inland. 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

Just beyond frustrating. I'm definitely trying to be as optimistic as possible to not rain on our northern neighbors' parade but this is a pretty aggravating start to the season. 

  • Like 4

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Somehow made it through the Kraken game without losing power (and boy, that was certainly... a game...) and it looks like, in the meantime, the precip turned over to a mix. Looks like maybe there may have even been some sleet at one point, my deck is covered in chonky pellets.

Nothing really seems to be accumulating at all in the lower elevations in Redmond, though a quick look at the traffic cams shows you only have to go up a couple hundred feet, tops, to see a lot more piling up.

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  • Staff

To clarify the situation... that band tomorrow night is not really a different feature.   Its just the current band lifting a little north again but with colder air aloft coming back in late tomorrow afternoon.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Not feeling great about tomorrow when I see how weird tonight turned out.

Way colder air mass tomorrow night.  Moisture is pointed at us too.  WSW flow aloft with cold enough air aloft is golden for us.

Tonight went as I expected it would.  The thing that kills me is it's colder here than places getting snow.  When the 925mb temps fall a bit more we could catch something late tonight.  In short though...I hate it here in this pattern.  Tomorrow night is way different.

  • Like 5

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Just beyond frustrating. I'm definitely trying to be as optimistic as possible to not rain on our northern neighbors' parade but this is a pretty aggravating start to the season. 

Frustrating indeed but you know the drill. Snow is never a slam dunk around here. 

If it is any consolation, the euro seems to be the only model that is that dry right now. The GEM, GFS and even UKMET are much wetter. A 60-70 mile shift eastward and there would be a lot more juice to work with on the euro. Wouldn't take a dramatic change. 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Way colder air mass tomorrow night.  Moisture is pointed at us too.  WSW flow aloft with cold enough air aloft is golden for us.

Tonight went as I expected it would.  The thing that kills me is it's colder here than places getting snow.  When the 925mb temps fall a bit more we could catch something late tonight.  In short though...I hate it here in this pattern.  Tomorrow night is way different.

Agreed it’s frustrating. Sitting at 32.5 degrees and just freezing rain/slush. 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the warmest sector has already moved through.  The next two days should be pretty much all snow for whatever falls.

Nope, the sector is sitting in my front yard and he says he's not leaving until tomorrow night

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Just now, joelgombiner said:

Under a winter storm warning for heavy snow, while the overnight point forecast calls for rain with a steady temperature around 41. image.thumb.png.2c5125b820fa4fc309d56aa8e29a6023.png

Haha, I noticed this too. Perhaps the night shift hasn’t gotten around to updating the forecast portion. I seem to be currently under one of the heavy bands - absolutely dumping. Looking forward to some of those returns in the Olympia area working their way north. What a ride!

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