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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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It's a soaker across Western Washington and NW Oregon.  Snow in the mountains and east of the Cascade's in areas, otherwise rain there too. 

Northwest_Composite_RadarAnim-640x480.gif.84df8816155c04a600082da08862100c.gifK5-340mileAnim-640x480.gif.ee5b2ff4fd96c3899a5783d7415e287a.gif

Also check out these wind maps!  Powerful gusts predicted by the models with the strongest times for gusts early Friday morning and late Friday night.  60mph gusts expected through inland waterways of the Puget Sound and 70+ in the foothills and Cascades.

1814275174_ScreenShot2022-11-03at5_00_48PM.thumb.png.3eada88f923f500b71498751cc9bdcb4.png367227180_ScreenShot2022-11-03at5_01_37PM.thumb.png.4a471e17e8e364bbf4d518df14e142a1.png

 

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image.png.94afe9332673810bb282fc7d4fece326.png


NWS is forecasting gusts up to 44mph with this, and 1.75-3" of rain too. I doubt I'm going to reach those higher numbers being in a pretty shadowed location compared to the rest of the metro area but still a lot of rain.

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3 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

5 pm: 38.9°, 0.34 in rain today, 0.120 rain rate. It feels like fall. 😍

Actually feels like winter.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

Just started raining. The 2006 AR event was ridiculously warm. Much warmer than this one will be. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Temp at the moment down to 40.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

A curtain of gray. 

338E8BA6-113C-4B3C-A615-0A0116A3B0CF.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very warm, dry winter followed.     There was a developing Nino in 2014-15... but it happened faster than it will this year.

Nino is a long ways off.  Waters beneath the surface are still anomalously cold, and warmer sub surface waters have not advanced eastward since at least late August.  Also, the SOI is still positive, and in fact was stronger in October than the previous 2 months.   

Even by March most models have it as negative-neutral and none at El Nino

image.png

 

image.png

 

image.png

Edited by Brian_in_Leavenworth
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3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

GFS and EURO in a familiar stand off. GEFS isn't budging at all. Which model blinks tonight? or do they yet? You'd have to think the GFS/GEFS will. We shall see!

00z GFS in 2 hours 57 minutes
00z ECMWF in 5 hours 7 minutes

Usually they split the difference in the end. But I've seen GFS spit out rain maps as the latest run comes in for right now, when actually it was snowing with 2" accumulation at that right now moment... Too much booze will do that, can't see straight even 0 hours out. 😁

 

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12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Nino is a long ways off.  Waters beneath the surface are still anomalously cold, and warmer sub surface waters have not advanced eastward since at least late August.  Also, the SOI is still positive, and in fact was stronger in October than the previous 2 months.   

Even by March most models have it as negative-neutral and none at El Nino

image.png

 

image.png

 

image.png

Yeah... the Nina will be weakening this winter but it will likely take until late in the spring to get even close to Nino threshold.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

image.thumb.png.3ac0727e57e6aa0835fae974f0577cec.pngimage.thumb.png.ddff85a74a8ca53aba2c75830c397618.png

That's a really nice pattern for here. Storms coming in to the south around Cape Blanco.

We've been super fortunate with snow since 2012. We've had like 8 or more events that have dropped at least a couple inches. Did great last December with 3 straight nights with solid snowfall that totaled 10".

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

That's a really nice pattern for here. Storms coming in to the south around Cape Blanco.

We've been super fortunate with snow since 2012. We've had like 8 or more events that have dropped at least a couple inches. Did great last December with 3 straight nights with solid snowfall that totaled 10".

How much snow total have you had since then? Here we've done decent but not as good probably since 2011/2012, probably around 50-55" total.

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4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How much snow total have you had since then? Here we've done decent but not as good probably since 2011/2012, probably around 50-55" total.

At least 50" total if not more. Tremendous past decade.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

At least 50" total if not more. Tremendous past decade.

I can tally up at least 60 here on the valley floor on the top of my head since 2012. EUG snow records have been garbage since the beginning of time though, including the last decade although it has gotten a bit better.

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3 minutes ago, Dave said:

I can tally up at least 60 here on the valley floor on the top of my head since 2012. EUG snow records have been garbage since the beginning of time though, including the last decade although it has gotten a bit better.

Yeah it's absolute bush league and everything from 1996-2011 or so wasn't even measured in the snow dept. So whatever we had in like 03-04, 06-07, 07-08 and 08-09 isn't recorded, but all had decent events at some point in the snow or Arctic cold dept.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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  • Longtimer

Down to 38 now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Currently 35.2 and I might be crazy but I believe I was having positive splats along with the heavy rain and wind when cleaning my gutters about 40min ago. 
.67” so far on the day. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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It is going to be gusty and with some snow across the Columbia Basin.  Anyone driving out there, be careful.  These are courtesy of NWS Spokane.  Wind gusts into the 60s with snowy conditions is a recipe for bad things if people don't pay attention.

FgqKoODVIAA7qj8.thumb.jpeg.d578215696ae3004c41e3c9e4527c5ee.jpegFgqKeg6UoAU8dDf.thumb.jpeg.e6332514dfe4be2df70c9d416e639289.jpeg

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

81.8” of snowfall here since January 2012. 

Yeah you've done much better farther north. We had 18" or slightly more in 2016/2017 and 9-10" in 2013/2014, not as much recently though still decent.

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  • Longtimer

I like where the 18z was going at the end. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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20 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Where are we looking at?

My dads organic fruit orchard in Twisp at 2500’. that cam looks at the house northward up the methow valley towards downtown Twisp and Winthrop. Here is what it looked like an hour or two ago and a month ago

8626CE2C-AE8D-41E6-A74F-4FAE94DA13C8.jpeg

8EE23B07-53F9-4E8C-8F0C-29D02710ADCF.jpeg

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17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 35.2 and I might be crazy but I believe I was having positive splats along with the heavy rain and wind when cleaning my gutters about 40min ago. 
.67” so far on the day. 

You’re not crazy. I am getting about the same. The heavy precip rates are temporarily dragging the snow level down.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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47F and cloudy. Nice night on the porch.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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The 18z GFS shows heavy snow falling here with temps below zero on Tuesday and Wednesday. 40:1 snow ratios would be something for early November but I think it is off its rocker. 

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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  • Longtimer
13 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

My dads organic fruit orchard in Twisp at 2500’. that cam looks at the house northward up the methow valley towards downtown Twisp and Winthrop. Here is what it looked like an hour or two ago and a month ago

8626CE2C-AE8D-41E6-A74F-4FAE94DA13C8.jpeg

8EE23B07-53F9-4E8C-8F0C-29D02710ADCF.jpeg

I've always wondered if they grow METH in the Methow valley?

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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