November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Requiem]

It cannot be denied that this is a pretty D**n strong mean 

[dolt]

 

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, Dave said:

 

Missed the memo. There was a rewrite to "November SNOW" 

[Gradient Keeper]

Welcome to November

11/1/22 6:22 AM 6z GEFS Re-cap

 

Wow! Just woke up to feed my cat. 6z GEFS were the coldest ensembles yet. The block over Alaska looks really good and if the trough digs just a bit more PDX even will see modified arctic air! 850mb ensemble mean for PDX now bottoms out near -5c with a large cluster of members colder yet to -10c. Seattle -6.5c with a cluster to -12c. More impressively Moses Lake mean temp dips to -11.5c with a large cluster of members pulling arctic air into the Columbia Basin/Gorge.

 

Surface Temps for PDX and Seattle even dip below freezing at times and the Gorge/Columbia Basin down into the teens! The 850mb and Surface Temp anomaly are several notches colder than 00z. Even the snowfall map paints widespread snow for the lowlands 2-4" for PDX metro and 3-5" for Puget Sound. This looks real good, but I do caution that the GFS is known for being both too fast and too aggressive with cold air. We shall see though! It's amazing to see this regardless on an ensemble mean for early November! C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

We really want to see the 12z EURO/EPS continue to trend colder too. GFS/GEFS is one thing, but if we can get the EURO on board and within Day 7 now it holds a lot more weight.

12z GFS in 2 hours 2 minutes
12z ECMWF in 4 hours 12 minutes

[Meatyorologist]

If this cold snap comes to pass, this will be the weirdest Fall in PNW history by a decent margin.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If this cold snap comes to pass, this will be the weirdest Fall in PNW history by a decent margin.

I guess it's kind of similar to 2014. August September October were record warm then we had the cold snap in early November. Though this fall was warmer and smokier

[MWG]

Looks like it didn't start raining till about 5am and right now it's just pouring! Currently 45F

[Cascadia_Wx]

Well at least October got close to catching up to average on precip. And it didn’t smash the warmest on record by that many degrees.

On to November! Cloudy and 45 currently.

[The Blob]

6 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

My husband's snoring

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, MWG said:

Looks like it didn't start raining till about 5am and right now it's just pouring! Currently 45F

It’s been fun here. Y’all are in for a treat. SW Oregon folks gotta stick together!! Big winter coming up!!

[Anti Marine Layer]

28 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Welcome to November

11/1/22 6:22 AM 6z GEFS Re-cap

 

Wow! Just woke up to feed my cat. 6z GEFS were the coldest ensembles yet. The block over Alaska looks really good and if the trough digs just a bit more PDX even will see modified arctic air! 850mb ensemble mean for PDX now bottoms out near -5c with a large cluster of members colder yet to -10c. Seattle -6.5c with a cluster to -12c. More impressively Moses Lake mean temp dips to -11.5c with a large cluster of members pulling arctic air into the Columbia Basin/Gorge.

 

Surface Temps for PDX and Seattle even dip below freezing at times and the Gorge/Columbia Basin down into the teens! The 850mb and Surface Temp anomaly are several notches colder than 00z. Even the snowfall map paints widespread snow for the lowlands 2-4" for PDX metro and 3-5" for Puget Sound. This looks real good, but I do caution that the GFS is known for being both too fast and too aggressive with cold air. We shall see though! It's amazing to see this regardless on an ensemble mean for early November! C'MON!!!!

Rex Block reigns supreme.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, The Blob said:

My husband's snoring

My wife is hopefully peacefully under the knife. 2nd time in a few months. Hopefully your husband likes the cold and snow like we do. M’lady is marginal on it unless she’s safe at home.

[Anti Marine Layer]

6 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

H20 and nothing. 

[The Blob]

Phone app on board 

[The Blob]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

My wife is hopefully peacefully under the knife. 2nd time in a few months. Hopefully your husband likes the cold and snow like we do. M’lady is marginal on it unless she’s safe at home.

He does, I hope all is well with your wife 

[ShawniganLake]

32.5F. Just missed a freeze here.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, The Blob said:

He does, I hope all is well with your wife 

Thank you. I haven’t told her about the impending hammer drop so all is well on that front so far.

[MWG]

19 minutes ago, The Blob said:

My husband's snoring

Mine woke me up at 2am. He had a whole orchestra going on. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

22 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

My wife is hopefully peacefully under the knife. 2nd time in a few months. Hopefully your husband likes the cold and snow like we do. M’lady is marginal on it unless she’s safe at home.

I hope all goes well, sending positive vibes your way.  We are waiting for insurance to do their thing before scheduling my wife's surgery.  Hoping to get her in before Thanksgiving.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I hope all goes well, sending positive vibes your way.  We are waiting for insurance to do their thing before scheduling my wife's surgery.  Hoping to get her in before Thanksgiving.

Thank you. It’s so frustrating waiting for one’s turn on the “conveyor belt” but I was very lucky that the cost of a house (in 2018 lol) was put into my head with 2 brain surgeries so I’m forever grateful to whatever oligarch approved my procedures. And my wife’s insurance plan thru her work is great.

I hope y’all’s gets set up soon!

[TT-SEA]

52 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If this cold snap comes to pass, this will be the weirdest Fall in PNW history by a decent margin.

Its already up there near the top... but a region-wide snowstorm in early November would be the icing on the cake.  Sort of feels like we should start expecting extremes now in a year of extreme weather.   

[Snownerd3000]

6 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

I remember following that. There was more snow then forecasted. It was dumping snow and windy, it was crazy 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2010/11/humility.html?m=0

I was living in PDX at the time and remember reading Cliff's nowcast of that front and the low that developed off the Olympics if i recall which was what enhanced the precip rates. What a cool event. 

[AlTahoe]

54 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I guess it's kind of similar to 2014. August September October were record warm then we had the cold snap in early November. Though this fall was warmer and smokier

The models are showing us getting more snow in the next 2 weeks then we had for the entire winter of 2014-2015! 

[jakerepp]

Well. How convenient that the models are showing this for literally the week I move. On one hand, yay cold and snow! On the other, I have to drive 1000 miles that week.

[Phil]

This is pretty nuts for an ensemble mean.

06z GEFS 850mb temp anoms.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

This is pretty nuts for an ensemble mean.

06z GEFS 850mb temp anoms.

Hope you’re ok my man. We missed you!!

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Hope you’re ok my man. We missed you!!

Thanks brother. Missed you all too. Have had a lot going on but I’m back now.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Thanks brother. Missed you all too. Have had a lot going on but I’m back now.  

Massive winter incoming!!

[Anti Marine Layer]

  

7 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

Would he drink beer?

[Phil]

November’s where the blessings are.

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its already up there near the top... but a region-wide snowstorm in early November would be the icing on the cake.  Sort of feels like we should start expecting extremes now in a year of extreme weather.   

Icee what you did there.....

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Massive winter incoming!!

The 2010/11 analog is an intriguing one.

Best QBO match, also quiet WPAC hurricane season, basin wide -ENSO w/ W-Hem rising cell during boreal autumn.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The 2010/11 analog is an intriguing one.

Best QBO match, also quiet WPAC hurricane season, basin wide -ENSO w/ W-Hem rising cell during boreal autumn.

 

Hopefully can dig a little better.

[ShawniganLake]

Down to 32F. A freeze. Starting off November right. 
 

October will end up way warmer than 2014 here.  It’s almost 2F ahead, just waiting on the official numbers for yesterday at Shawnigan Lake. 

[The Blob]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We ended October with 4.43” of rain. About 70% of average. Began November with 0.70”.

[Terreboner]

Snowing gangbusters here.  Switched over about an hour ago, rooftops are just turning white.

[AlTahoe]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 2010/11 analog is an intriguing one.

Best QBO match, also quiet WPAC hurricane season, basin wide -ENSO w/ W-Hem rising cell during boreal autumn.

 

4th snowiest winter in Tahoe history. Yes please! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up.