Jump to content
The Weather Forums

November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I hope all goes well, sending positive vibes your way.  We are waiting for insurance to do their thing before scheduling my wife's surgery.  Hoping to get her in before Thanksgiving.

Thank you. It’s so frustrating waiting for one’s turn on the “conveyor belt” but I was very lucky that the cost of a house (in 2018 lol) was put into my head with 2 brain surgeries so I’m forever grateful to whatever oligarch approved my procedures. And my wife’s insurance plan thru her work is great.

I hope y’all’s gets set up soon!

  • Like 4

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If this cold snap comes to pass, this will be the weirdest Fall in PNW history by a decent margin.

Its already up there near the top... but a region-wide snowstorm in early November would be the icing on the cake.  Sort of feels like we should start expecting extremes now in a year of extreme weather.   

  • Like 6
  • Excited 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

I remember following that. There was more snow then forecasted. It was dumping snow and windy, it was crazy 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2010/11/humility.html?m=0

I was living in PDX at the time and remember reading Cliff's nowcast of that front and the low that developed off the Olympics if i recall which was what enhanced the precip rates. What a cool event. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I guess it's kind of similar to 2014. August September October were record warm then we had the cold snap in early November. Though this fall was warmer and smokier

The models are showing us getting more snow in the next 2 weeks then we had for the entire winter of 2014-2015! 

  • Like 3
  • Excited 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well. How convenient that the models are showing this for literally the week I move. On one hand, yay cold and snow! On the other, I have to drive 1000 miles that week.

  • Sad 4
  • scream 1

Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 90.7 (some data missing)

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 13

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 6

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.9''

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phil said:

This is pretty nuts for an ensemble mean.

06z GEFS 850mb temp anoms.

2D76F240-D783-44D1-8CDB-F627AA839BE7.gif

Hope you’re ok my man. We missed you!!

  • Like 7

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Thanks brother. Missed you all too. Have had a lot going on but I’m back now. 🍻 

Massive winter incoming!!

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its already up there near the top... but a region-wide snowstorm in early November would be the icing on the cake.  Sort of feels like we should start expecting extremes now in a year of extreme weather.   

Icee what you did there.....

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Massive winter incoming!!

The 2010/11 analog is an intriguing one.

Best QBO match, also quiet WPAC hurricane season, basin wide -ENSO w/ W-Hem rising cell during boreal autumn.

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The 2010/11 analog is an intriguing one.

Best QBO match, also quiet WPAC hurricane season, basin wide -ENSO w/ W-Hem rising cell during boreal autumn.

 

Hopefully can dig a little better.

  • Like 3

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Down to 32F. A freeze. Starting off November right. 
 

October will end up way warmer than 2014 here.  It’s almost 2F ahead, just waiting on the official numbers for yesterday at Shawnigan Lake. 

  • Like 4
  • Excited 2
  • Shivering 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer

We ended October with 4.43” of rain. About 70% of average. Began November with 0.70”.

  • Like 2
  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 2010/11 analog is an intriguing one.

Best QBO match, also quiet WPAC hurricane season, basin wide -ENSO w/ W-Hem rising cell during boreal autumn.

 

4th snowiest winter in Tahoe history. Yes please! 

Capture.JPG

  • Like 5
  • Excited 2
  • scream 2
  • Shivering 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer

Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up. 

1DE46E8A-E61C-4D52-9D49-F5376F5E4C44.jpeg

  • Confused 1
  • Sad 3
  • scream 2
  • Sick 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Totally dry here this morning... no rain overnight.    Looks like the next couple days are basically dry up here.   SE WA has been under that moisture band since yesterday and its still going strong.    Its been raining in Pullman for about 36 hours straight now.

  • Rain 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up. 

1DE46E8A-E61C-4D52-9D49-F5376F5E4C44.jpeg

You should move into that neighborhood... no more commute!

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 2010/11 analog is an intriguing one.

Best QBO match, also quiet WPAC hurricane season, basin wide -ENSO w/ W-Hem rising cell during boreal autumn.

 

I'm hoping this Novemember cold verifies too. I also remember you saying earlier that you were feeling November here.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up. 

1DE46E8A-E61C-4D52-9D49-F5376F5E4C44.jpeg

Hopefully the new gig treats you well my man!

  • Like 3

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You should move into that neighborhood... no more commute!

For real, my commute just went from 40 minutes to an hour. 

 

7 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

New job or did your office move?

New job. A promotion of sorts. Will still be at the old office once a week. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
  • Like 8

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer

In other news I’m taking a wait and see approach in regards to next week. Could potentially see some flakes tomorrow morning. 

  • Like 2
  • Excited 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m waiting for m’lady to come out of surgery. Y’all got QB for the morning GFS?

  • Like 6

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Terreboner said:

Expecting a NowCast pretty soon.  Looks like this band is overperforming here considering NWS had us as a rain/snow mix at best.

If events regularly overperform then this winter will become even more memorable.

  • Like 2
  • Snow 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37F here this morning. Looks like the next couple mornings could approach freezing so I might have to do a final collection of the remaining summer crops in the garden.

  • Like 2
  • Shivering 2

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: 0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For an event that's still a week out, I have amazingly high confidence we are about to see some significantly colder weather, complete with lowland snow chances. What is unfolding in the models is just so much like most other recent arctic blasts for me to think otherwise.

The GFS often picks up on arctic blast signals first, to be followed by other models coming on board later. Just like we are seeing now. The GFS also typically ridiculously overdoes the lowland cold and snow. It almost always calls for record or near-record temperatures in this sort of situation. If we are lucky, we just might see Olympia or Arlington drop into the single digits… and we probably won't be that lucky. No way is SEA or PDX going to see temperatures like that. Even BLI is almost certain to not see single digits on this one. Most of us won’t see temperatures colder than about 25˚F. And that is still impressively cold for early November.

  • Like 7
  • Excited 2
  • scream 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

For an event that's still a week out, I have amazingly high confidence we are about to see some significantly colder weather, complete with lowland snow chances. What is unfolding in the models is just so much like most other recent arctic blasts for me to think otherwise.

The GFS often picks up on arctic blast signals first, to be followed by other models coming on board later. Just like we are seeing now. The GFS also typically ridiculously overdoes the lowland cold and snow. It almost always calls for record or near-record temperatures in this sort of situation. If we are lucky, we just might see Olympia or Arlington drop into the single digits… and we probably won't be that lucky. No way is SEA or PDX going to see temperatures like that. Even BLI is almost certain to not see single digits on this one. Most of us won’t see temperatures colder than about 25˚F. And that is still impressively cold for early November.

Kind of sad to see that you drank the kool aid. Even Tim has left his perch of sanity.

Highs in the upper 30s are more likely than any of the nonsense modeled.

  • Like 1
  • lol 1
  • Popcorn 1
  • Sad 1
  • Sick 1
  • Downvote 2
  • Weenie 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

12z ICON is still showing a decidedly more climo look.

True, but it is the icon, I’d rather have the gfs and euro onboard. Also the 12z icon is better than the 00z icon

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, administrator said:

Kind of sad to see that you drank the kool aid. Even Tim has left his perch of sanity.

Highs in the upper 30s are more likely than any of the nonsense modeled.

The first snow maps of the year are always the easiest to get excited about. Then around 4 or 5 days out we remember what we learned the previous year. We spend the rest of the winter a bit wiser as we watch the cold air delay and delay until February.  We'll do it again next November because that's what we do. 🤪

  • Like 3
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Hopefully November doesn't blow the load and there is nothing the rest of the Winter.  It can, and has happened before.

It was cold for two straight months after the initial cold wave in mid-April. I’m not worried.

Based on how the weather has worked this year I highly doubt this will be some “one hit wonder and then back to business as usual” event.

The first storm of the season was NW flow and we’ve seen more NW than SW flow to this point, too.

  • Like 6
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Uh oh...is it time to put this thing on life support?? 850s are weak so far

Trend over the last few runs has been to shift everything westward early next week which increases SW flow.  

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Temps down to 39F  I'm very surprised the temps have gone down. Still raining! Bad that today I'm not in my office so no windows for me today! 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MWG said:

Temps down to 39F  I'm very surprised the temps have gone down. Still raining! Bad that today I'm not in my office so no windows for me today! 

Pretty sure you’re gonna have a sneaky good winter there.

  • Like 3

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kinda like Dec 2021 in which the really cold stuff doesn’t make it past Wenatchee but we still get extended maritime polar air and the mountains get absolutely buried in the type of powder Colorado resorts boast about.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...