November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I hope all goes well, sending positive vibes your way.  We are waiting for insurance to do their thing before scheduling my wife's surgery.  Hoping to get her in before Thanksgiving.

Thank you. It’s so frustrating waiting for one’s turn on the “conveyor belt” but I was very lucky that the cost of a house (in 2018 lol) was put into my head with 2 brain surgeries so I’m forever grateful to whatever oligarch approved my procedures. And my wife’s insurance plan thru her work is great.

I hope y’all’s gets set up soon!

[TT-SEA]

52 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If this cold snap comes to pass, this will be the weirdest Fall in PNW history by a decent margin.

Its already up there near the top... but a region-wide snowstorm in early November would be the icing on the cake.  Sort of feels like we should start expecting extremes now in a year of extreme weather.   

[Snownerd3000]

6 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

I remember following that. There was more snow then forecasted. It was dumping snow and windy, it was crazy 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2010/11/humility.html?m=0

I was living in PDX at the time and remember reading Cliff's nowcast of that front and the low that developed off the Olympics if i recall which was what enhanced the precip rates. What a cool event. 

[AlTahoe]

54 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I guess it's kind of similar to 2014. August September October were record warm then we had the cold snap in early November. Though this fall was warmer and smokier

The models are showing us getting more snow in the next 2 weeks then we had for the entire winter of 2014-2015! 

[jakerepp]

Well. How convenient that the models are showing this for literally the week I move. On one hand, yay cold and snow! On the other, I have to drive 1000 miles that week.

[Phil]

This is pretty nuts for an ensemble mean.

06z GEFS 850mb temp anoms.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

This is pretty nuts for an ensemble mean.

06z GEFS 850mb temp anoms.

Hope you’re ok my man. We missed you!!

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Hope you’re ok my man. We missed you!!

Thanks brother. Missed you all too. Have had a lot going on but I’m back now.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Thanks brother. Missed you all too. Have had a lot going on but I’m back now.  

Massive winter incoming!!

[Mr Marine Layer]

  

7 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

Would he drink beer?

[Phil]

November’s where the blessings are.

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its already up there near the top... but a region-wide snowstorm in early November would be the icing on the cake.  Sort of feels like we should start expecting extremes now in a year of extreme weather.   

Icee what you did there.....

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Massive winter incoming!!

The 2010/11 analog is an intriguing one.

Best QBO match, also quiet WPAC hurricane season, basin wide -ENSO w/ W-Hem rising cell during boreal autumn.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The 2010/11 analog is an intriguing one.

Best QBO match, also quiet WPAC hurricane season, basin wide -ENSO w/ W-Hem rising cell during boreal autumn.

 

Hopefully can dig a little better.

[ShawniganLake]

Down to 32F. A freeze. Starting off November right. 
 

October will end up way warmer than 2014 here.  It’s almost 2F ahead, just waiting on the official numbers for yesterday at Shawnigan Lake. 

[The Blob]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We ended October with 4.43” of rain. About 70% of average. Began November with 0.70”.

[Terreboner]

Snowing gangbusters here.  Switched over about an hour ago, rooftops are just turning white.

[AlTahoe]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 2010/11 analog is an intriguing one.

Best QBO match, also quiet WPAC hurricane season, basin wide -ENSO w/ W-Hem rising cell during boreal autumn.

 

4th snowiest winter in Tahoe history. Yes please! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up. 

[TT-SEA]

Totally dry here this morning... no rain overnight.    Looks like the next couple days are basically dry up here.   SE WA has been under that moisture band since yesterday and its still going strong.    Its been raining in Pullman for about 36 hours straight now.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up. 

You should move into that neighborhood... no more commute!

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up. 

New job or did your office move?

[Doinko]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

The 2010/11 analog is an intriguing one.

Best QBO match, also quiet WPAC hurricane season, basin wide -ENSO w/ W-Hem rising cell during boreal autumn.

 

I'm hoping this Novemember cold verifies too. I also remember you saying earlier that you were feeling November here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gonna miss the view from the weather window. New view doesn’t quite measure up. 

Hopefully the new gig treats you well my man!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You should move into that neighborhood... no more commute!

For real, my commute just went from 40 minutes to an hour. 

 

7 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

New job or did your office move?

New job. A promotion of sorts. Will still be at the old office once a week. 

Edited November 1, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[LowerGarfield]

Still raining a bunch but we're somewhere past .6

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In other news I’m taking a wait and see approach in regards to next week. Could potentially see some flakes tomorrow morning. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I’m waiting for m’lady to come out of surgery. Y’all got QB for the morning GFS?

[Terreboner]

Expecting a NowCast pretty soon.  Looks like this band is overperforming here considering NWS had us as a rain/snow mix at best.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Terreboner said:

Expecting a NowCast pretty soon.  Looks like this band is overperforming here considering NWS had us as a rain/snow mix at best.

If events regularly overperform then this winter will become even more memorable.

[Skagit Weather]

37F here this morning. Looks like the next couple mornings could approach freezing so I might have to do a final collection of the remaining summer crops in the garden.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

For an event that's still a week out, I have amazingly high confidence we are about to see some significantly colder weather, complete with lowland snow chances. What is unfolding in the models is just so much like most other recent arctic blasts for me to think otherwise.

The GFS often picks up on arctic blast signals first, to be followed by other models coming on board later. Just like we are seeing now. The GFS also typically ridiculously overdoes the lowland cold and snow. It almost always calls for record or near-record temperatures in this sort of situation. If we are lucky, we just might see Olympia or Arlington drop into the single digits… and we probably won't be that lucky. No way is SEA or PDX going to see temperatures like that. Even BLI is almost certain to not see single digits on this one. Most of us won’t see temperatures colder than about 25˚F. And that is still impressively cold for early November.

[BLI snowman]

12z ICON is still showing a decidedly more climo look.

[Guest administrator]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

For an event that's still a week out, I have amazingly high confidence we are about to see some significantly colder weather, complete with lowland snow chances. What is unfolding in the models is just so much like most other recent arctic blasts for me to think otherwise.

The GFS often picks up on arctic blast signals first, to be followed by other models coming on board later. Just like we are seeing now. The GFS also typically ridiculously overdoes the lowland cold and snow. It almost always calls for record or near-record temperatures in this sort of situation. If we are lucky, we just might see Olympia or Arlington drop into the single digits… and we probably won't be that lucky. No way is SEA or PDX going to see temperatures like that. Even BLI is almost certain to not see single digits on this one. Most of us won’t see temperatures colder than about 25˚F. And that is still impressively cold for early November.

Kind of sad to see that you drank the kool aid. Even Tim has left his perch of sanity.

Highs in the upper 30s are more likely than any of the nonsense modeled.

[Guest administrator]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

12z ICON is still showing a decidedly more climo look.

Nice

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

12z ICON is still showing a decidedly more climo look.

True, but it is the icon, I’d rather have the gfs and euro onboard. Also the 12z icon is better than the 00z icon

[Nov1985]

2 minutes ago, administrator said:

Kind of sad to see that you drank the kool aid. Even Tim has left his perch of sanity.

Highs in the upper 30s are more likely than any of the nonsense modeled.

The first snow maps of the year are always the easiest to get excited about. Then around 4 or 5 days out we remember what we learned the previous year. We spend the rest of the winter a bit wiser as we watch the cold air delay and delay until February.  We'll do it again next November because that's what we do. 

[Terreboner]

Hopefully November doesn't blow the load and there is nothing the rest of the Winter.  It can, and has happened before.

[Doinko]

 

[Omegaraptor]

16 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Hopefully November doesn't blow the load and there is nothing the rest of the Winter.  It can, and has happened before.

It was cold for two straight months after the initial cold wave in mid-April. I’m not worried.

Based on how the weather has worked this year I highly doubt this will be some “one hit wonder and then back to business as usual” event.

The first storm of the season was NW flow and we’ve seen more NW than SW flow to this point, too.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

Uh oh...is it time to put this thing on life support?? 850s are weak so far

[hawkstwelve]

Already snowier than 06z for just about everyone besides spots in SW WA...

 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Uh oh...is it time to put this thing on life support?? 850s are weak so far

Trend over the last few runs has been to shift everything westward early next week which increases SW flow.  

[DareDuck]

About 2.5” of snow on the south side of Bend. Rain started around 3am and transitioned to snow around 5-6am. More precip in the first 9 hours of November than all of October. 

[hawkstwelve]

Definitely a bit less cold air to work with vs 00z but still not bad for early November.

[FroYoBro]

The 12z GFS looks much more realistic with how much cold air pushes south compared to last nights run. 

[MWG]

Temps down to 39F  I'm very surprised the temps have gone down. Still raining! Bad that today I'm not in my office so no windows for me today! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, MWG said:

Temps down to 39F  I'm very surprised the temps have gone down. Still raining! Bad that today I'm not in my office so no windows for me today! 

Pretty sure you’re gonna have a sneaky good winter there.

[Omegaraptor]

Kinda like Dec 2021 in which the really cold stuff doesn’t make it past Wenatchee but we still get extended maritime polar air and the mountains get absolutely buried in the type of powder Colorado resorts boast about.