November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting.   Mine is perfectly accurate based on topography maps and our house plans from 20 years ago.    And it follows me closely... it shows 996 feet on the main level of the house and then drops to 980 feet when I go downstairs.   

I thought you were 1,100 feet?

[Kolk1604]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm fully prepared to be screwed here tomorrow.  I've seen it too many times.  East wind keeps things too dry, and low precip rates fail to get the job done.  Meanwhile the dry east wind flooding through here provides the dry air necessary for point NW of here to score big time.  At least with this one it looks like I won't have to wait long for my turn.

I'm not even worried about it tbh. Maybe I'll be surprised. 

My focus is on next week and that polar lobe that might head our way. The block looks to reset, and with all the arctic air in Canada, the potential is Huge imo. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

DP's around 17-23F in the city, most other models had them around 24-30F.

Yeah this is really looking good for you guys. DPs are everything with this... SW flow won't be able to warm you up fast enough.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I thought you were 1,100 feet?

I did too... until a few years ago when we had the house plans out and plot of our property and noticed that back side of our property is at 1,100 but where the house is built is actually around 1,000.     Our lower garage is around 940.      Our property is right at the start of the flat plateau that includes Rattlesnake Lake.

[Terreboner]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I thought you were 1,100 feet?

16' drop just walking downstairs.  Man, that guy has a nice house, lol.

[Dave]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting.   Mine is perfectly accurate based on topography maps and our house plans from 20 years ago.    And it follows me closely... it shows 996 feet on the main level of the house and then drops to 980 feet when I go downstairs.   

That is pretty cool, but I'm still skeptical that it is accurate. I just downloaded My Elevation and it was right on the money.

[SouthHillFrosty]

SeaTac wow

[Snownerd3000]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

https://whatismyelevation.com/

I think phone is best since it has a GPS built in.   

 

Oh neat. I usually use the terrain maps on Google maps. This is faster but deleted about 75 ft from what I thought I was at lol

[Cold Snap]

Nice to see the models trending in a good direction this afternoon. Wednesday night into Thursday is looking a lot better for the south sounders getting in on the fun. There will probably be a ton of surprises over the next week. The Wednesday night into Thursday thing kinda just came out of nowhere today.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

16' drop just walking downstairs.  Man, that guy has a nice house, lol.

I was thinking that also

[Dave]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Terreboner said:

16' drop just walking downstairs.  Man, that guy has a nice house, lol.

I have 16' of brick foundation width wise.

[Terreboner]

Just now, Dave said:

I tried lots of them.  It is by far the best one.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

GPS apps like GAIA gps are much more accurate. Mine shows a 50 foot difference. 

The actual government topo maps are dead on accurate.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I have 16' of brick foundation width wise.

Knowing Tim, he probably holds his phone up as high as he can upstairs and then puts it on the floor downstairs.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, gusky said:

Someone ban me from messaging in this forum for a while, I need to stop procrastinating this essay IMMEDIATELY.

Tempbanned until midnight. Get that homework done!

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

SeaTac wow

Dare I ask for a PDX meteogram

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I was thinking that also

I don't think it's that precisely accurate... just funny that I can watch it drop as I walk down the stairs.   

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting.   Mine is perfectly accurate based on topography maps and our house plans from 20 years ago.    And it follows me closely... it shows 996 feet on the main level of the house and then drops to 980 feet when I go downstairs.   

Seems like this is fairly accurate as well vs my phone app. 

[Cold Snap]

Already down to 31 here with a DP of 20. Probably going to see my coldest min of the season so far tonight.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Knowing Tim, he probably holds his phone up as high as he can upstairs and then puts it on the floor downstairs.

I didn't think of it but that would be a difference of about 8 feet just doing that.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Dare I ask for a PDX meteogram

[Dave]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think it's that precisely accurate... just funny that I can watch it drop as I walk down the stairs.   

What does My Elevation say for your location?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Nice to see the models trending in a good direction this afternoon. Wednesday night into Thursday is looking a lot better for the south sounders getting in on the fun. There will probably be a ton of surprises over the next week. The Wednesday night into Thursday thing kinda just came out of nowhere today.

Just a little bit less of a flop out over the ocean on recent runs.  Makes a big difference in a number of ways.  The really exciting thing to me is how long it stays cold.  Any snow we get will be around fora while.  Normally warm ups end up getting kicked down the road repeatedly in these situations too.

[Dave]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Give me the bad news, please. Mahlon Sweet.

[SouthHillFrosty]

This comes down to precip… they are way different just 90 hours out 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Dave said:

What does My Elevation say for your location?

980

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not horrible by any means! Thank you

[Dave]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

980

That sucks. It's like being 5'11 and 3/4 inches.

[Cloud]

As already mentioned. Current DP is way lower than forecast. By about 5F. 

[snow_wizard]

I would gladly go for a compromise between the ECMWF suite and GFS suite of models.  The ECMWF is going for about 5 inches for the Seattle area.  GFS is about 3 to 4 times that.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

That sucks. It's like being 5'11 and 3/4 inches.

At least it isnt 999'.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This comes down to precip… they are way different just 90 hours out 

Insane difference 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Terreboner said:

At least it isnt 999'.  

Technically I would be at around 1005 feet at eye level... if 999 is at the bottom of my feet. 

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would gladly go for a compromise between the ECMWF suite and GFS suite of models.  The ECMWF is going for about 5 inches for the Seattle area.  GFS is about 3 to 4 times that.

If we can manage 1-2” of snow out of this event with it sticking around for a few days afterwards that’s a big win. A string of 35/25 temp spread days after some snow would be solid. We will see though good trends for now! 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, North_County said:

Eyeballing about a -22 gradient through the Fraser. Could see some monster drifts out of this locally if it verifies. Or, more likely, that pretty blue over my house disappears and I end up with a dry blast.

The way the models have been depicting a screw zone going from the Frasier valley to Belligham Bay, probably a dry blast. 

[snow_wizard]

SEA notched their first high below 40 today.  Not too shabby!  Current dp is 17 there.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

SEA notched their first high below 40 today.  Not too shabby!  Current dp is 17 there.

PDX got up to 48

[Chewbacca Defense]

temp 28, dewpoint 12.  It was a very brisk evening walk with the doggo this evening!

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA notched their first high below 40 today.  Not too shabby!  Current dp is 17 there.

Did it? I posted this earlier. There was a 40F obs at the 4am update this morning for the 6-hr forecast.