Jump to content
The Weather Forums

November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Staff
7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

East coast weenies started posting 1000+ hour maps. The desperation is real 

 

 

It will flip and they won't even be paying attention to west coast weenies.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks like an intense band drops this on Seattle early Sunday 

59FED304-ADD8-4D5B-9995-D57DAC8A4F86.jpeg

Needs to shift north a few miles. 

  • Snow 1
  • Weenie 6

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A 44/37 day at KSEA today. Not bad. December like.

  • Like 1
  • Shivering 3

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 4.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 20th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer

.92” so far on the day, 1.28” for the month, nearly 6.50” for the last 13 days. 
40.91” on the year. 
38 degrees, light rain, and windy. 
39/34 on the day. 

Edited by MossMan
  • Rain 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks like an intense band drops this on Seattle early Sunday 

59FED304-ADD8-4D5B-9995-D57DAC8A4F86.jpeg

With saturated air in the mid-30's F at the surface and a 925 mbar temp right at freezing? Maybe down to the higher hills given that the intensity is modeled to be high.

gfs-deterministic-washington-dew2m_f-7736000.thumb.png.19dc2ba1faef9c4fd63add3f383ed30b.pnggfs-deterministic-washington-t925-7736000.thumb.png.752e82f709c61941b008a9c27558eee8.pnggfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f-7736000.thumb.png.97a0642b892794b947c8f88d71d5c79e.png

  • Like 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's too bad the projected position of the trough is in such a tricky spot.  Just a tad east of what is projected would result in a far colder outcome.  Just tiny fluctuations in future runs would have big implications for snow and how cold it will get.  It does appear most places will have sub freezing mins early next week regardless, however.

  • Like 5

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's too bad the projected position of the trough is in such a tricky spot.  Just a tad east of what is projected would result in a far colder outcome.  Just tiny fluctuations in future runs would have big implications for snow and how cold it will get.  It does appear most places will have sub freezing mins early next week regardless, however.

That's the difference between the GFS Op and GEFS hr 72-84. Trough is several notches further east on the GEFS.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's too bad the projected position of the trough is in such a tricky spot.  Just a tad east of what is projected would result in a far colder outcome.  Just tiny fluctuations in future runs would have big implications for snow and how cold it will get.  It does appear most places will have sub freezing mins early next week regardless, however.

It’s modeled to be almost on the edge, temperature-wise. Wouldn’t take much of a discrepancy from what is modeled for there to be a snowy surprise.

  • Like 3
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:
GEFS - The Dalles. Big outlier. Mean temp -15.1c and note all of the members -15c to -17c. Interesting!
gfs-the-dalles-us-455n-1(9).png

The op is emerging as a really warm outlier.  Hard to imagine future runs not coming down a bit.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s modeled to be almost on the edge, temperature-wise. Wouldn’t take much of a discrepancy from what is modeled for there to be a snowy surprise.

On the other hand it could trend too far west but based on the GEFS I think and hope that it'll be slightly farther east than shown on the operationals.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A chilly / dry pattern sure looks possible in the longer range.

  • Like 4
  • Sick 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Doinko said:

On the other hand it could trend too far west but based on the GEFS I feel and hope that it'll be slightly farther east than shown on the operationals.

West looks really unlikely at this point given the ensemble means.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

West looks really unlikely at this point given the ensemble means.

Either way this November is already seeming much better than the past few years.  And hints that the block could reset in a favorable position

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer

Shame to see a dry pattern appearing on the horizon once again in the mid to long range. I guess the 2-3 weeks of active weather will have been nice while they lasted. Hopefully the next dry period won’t dig it’s heels like the last one did.

  • Like 1
  • Shivering 1

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Shame to see a dry pattern appearing on the horizon once again in the mid to long range. I guess the 2-3 weeks of active weather will have been nice while they lasted. Hopefully the next dry period won’t dig it’s heels like the last one did.

I’m hoping we get a good, foggy, cold inversion out of it.

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Mark Nelsen from his blog post:

That cool upper-level trough I mentioned earlier drops down along the West Coast and sits there Monday through Wednesday. 850mb temps bottom out around -4 to -6 C during that time; unusually cold for early November. Typically that’s around 1,500′ to 2,000′ snow levels. That’s with onshore flow. But during that time next week, we get a cool north or northeast wind as a cold arctic high pressure area will be sitting over SW Canada.
The low level airmass will also be unusually cold, including north of us. Here’s a Wednesday morning forecast temperature map; keep in mind anything under about -17 (C) on this map is 0 (F). Very unusual to have temps around zero degrees in early November just north of the U.S. border.

With that chilly air filtering south, snow levels COULD dip all the way to sea level. But at the same time it appears we’ll likely be dry from late Monday through at least Wednesday next week. So I’m thinking sticking snow down to sea level is unlikely Monday through Wednesday. It’s a bit too warm still Monday morning, but then when it WILL be cold enough Tuesday/Wednesday we’ll probably dry out. Now later next week, we could see moisture return. Each model is different with timing so we’ll see what happens. Remember that it IS possible to get snow or freezing rain as we head into mid-November. In 2014 freezing rain made it all the way into the central part of the metro area on the 13th!

That’s it for now. Our forecast looks like this…with high temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal Monday-Thursday next week. Stay Tuned!

Very interesting. Fun times ahead!

  • Like 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 16F (Jan 30, 2023)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 9, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 30, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Guest locked and unpinned this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...