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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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  • Longtimer

Troughing really starts to take over. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_64.png

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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This has been the Autumn of the rain shadow here in Seattle. Third system now with super overpowering shadowing.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer
8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

👍 

7718B2CE-92A4-4FFC-8E20-6341D84A8DD1.gif

I’m touching the blue! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

How many more weeks of winter do we get if your weenie sees its shadow?

A million. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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On the 12z GFS, this is probably the most realistic window to see some snow in the western lowlands. Monday night, any decent precip that is still around will probably be at least snow in the air. Airmass is cold enough by then and we have offshore flow as the trough continues to push south.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_16.png

Soundings around PDX look good

gfs_2022110412_096_45.5--123.0.png

 

GEM still dries us out by this point. Hopefully models trend towards throwing in a bit more precip.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_16.png

 

 

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

But look at that clear blue sky over Tims house!!!! 

In all fairness, I do think we see about a week of dryish weather coming up. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I definitely think we’re gonna see some snowflakes at some point Sunday or Monday. Really don’t think we see anything that sticks but that’s alright. Looks like high temps 39-42 degrees for a few days after we dry out with some lows in the upper 20s-freezing here not bad. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

They're having a fine Septvember on the east coast

 

 

Funn for Fill

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Still not raining here. The river is just barely holding off to the north.

Looks like Bellingham is already on the cold side of the AR and they are at 40°F.

42°F here in East Van and that is the warmest it’s been since this AR kicked in.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

42°F here in East Van and that is the warmest it’s been since this AR kicked in.

Looks like the airmass boundary is currently somewhere in Skagit County. Mt Vernon has switched to northerlies. About to reach Randy’s place!

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No rain here other than a few drops. A bit breezy but not windy yet. Hope to see a monsoon for the Beaver/Husky game tonight. Those are always entertaining. Probably will be rainshadowed though.

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33 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This has been the Autumn of the rain shadow here in Seattle. Third system now with super overpowering shadowing.

 Not a good trend for those of us in the shadow especially if this were snow :( 

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4 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

 Not a good trend for those of us in the shadow especially if this were snow :( 

We are getting all the shadowing out of the way now so that when the snow comes we will get buried. 

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14 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I seem to be on the fringe of the rain shadow based on radar and what I see out the window. Up to 56 here. 

On the edge of the shadow here too... just some sprinkles and 57.    Also dead calm for the last couple hours after moderate wind earlier this morning.    I was expecting way more rain out here today.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Looks like the airmass boundary is currently somewhere in Skagit County. Mt Vernon has switched to northerlies. About to reach Randy’s place!

I'm not sure we've seen the warm sector of the storm yet up here. The Euro still has 50s popping all the way up to Vancouver by the late afternoon. So far I haven't been above 44F.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: Tr (11/7: Tr, 11/29: Flakes, 11/30: Flakes, 12/1: Flakes, 12/2: Tr)

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1 hour ago, snow maniac said:

So far a dud of a storm, little rain and no wind to speak of.

rain shadow has been in full effect

It's a love/hate relationship with the Olympics.... It can help bring extraordinary stuff with the PSCZ and can also cause complete dryness if a  flow like this to occur. Pretty much anyone within the Seattle vicinity from Lynnwood to Renton is dry today. 

This was also very well modeled. 

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0.96inch of rain since midnight. Crazy! Wind is just...meh here so far. 21.7mph is the biggest gust I've recorded. 

 

We put in a french drain this summer and it seems to be working very well! Our crawl space flooded after all the snow/rain we got around Christmas last year, so installing the drainage and getting the craw re-done were summer projects. 

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48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

On the edge of the shadow here too... just some sprinkles and 57.    Also dead calm for the last couple hours after moderate wind earlier this morning.    I was expecting way more rain out here today.

It was pretty windy earlier but just breezy now. The fact that the shadow extends all the way to you is pretty amazing. How often does that happen?

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  • Longtimer
1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Still not raining here. The river is just barely holding off to the north.

Looks like Bellingham is already on the cold side of the AR and they are at 40°F.

Still on the cold side of the AR. Leftover from the last cool airmass. They will probably switch to warming SSE winds later this evening. Seems like even a quick glimpse at a weather.com hourly forecast could confirm this.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Still on the cold side of the AR. Leftover from the last cool airmass. They will probably switch to warming SSE winds later this evening. Seems like even a quick glimpse at a weather.com hourly forecast could confirm this.

Rawwwwrrrrrr

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Still on the cold side of the AR. Leftover from the last cool airmass. They will probably switch to warming SSE winds later this evening. Seems like even a quick glimpse at a weather.com hourly forecast could confirm this.

While there you could also learn what to do with leftover Halloween candy, how to dispose of pumpkins, and 50 places straight out of nightmares as well. Win, win, win. weather.com rocks.

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4 minutes ago, Dave said:

While there you could also learn what to do with leftover Halloween candy, how to dispose of pumpkins, and 50 places straight out of nightmares as well. Win, win, win. weather.com rocks.

Tim's basement.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Tim's basement.

Mark Nelsen's BDSM dungeon in Estacada. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

1.32" since midnight, 2.71" storm total. Currently 42.6˚F.

Looking forward to this making it down here.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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