November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Phishy Wx]

off Topic but wow

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Brrr!  Interestingly out of the 10 analogs listed for this pattern only one didn't lead to something really good later in the winter.

[High Desert Mat?]

6 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

This episode came to mind 

Great episode. 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Starting to look like we might have a prolonged cold snap coming up.  Surface gradients remain offshore or northerly pretty consistently right through day 10 after this rain ends.  There are also hints of a deep -EPO episode which usually means dry cold for us.

Signal for even more Alaska blocking mid-month too. Something is probably going to happen from the 18th to 27th when I'm not here...

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

off Topic but wow

 

 

That tree that is still standing shows the brute power of that thing.  Just tore it to shreds.  And of course the demolished structures.  Hopefully most people were gone at the time.

This is the one drawback of the meridional regime we are in.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS and GEFS agree on 850s bottoming out around -8 with this cold snap.  Impressive for this early.

[LowerGarfield]

11 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

off Topic but wow

 

Sad that half the comments are from media asking for this to be posted. TBF I would allow them if this were my video but still sad.

[Everleigh]

We've hit 2 inches of rain for the day! Had one 32mph gust a little after 5pm! 

[Cold Snap]

54 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Mossman year 2077.

With how much snow he normally gets this is probably accurate.

[Phishy Wx]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That tree that is still standing shows the brute power of that thing.  Just tore it to shreds.  And of course the demolished structures.  Hopefully most people were gone at the time.

This is the one drawback of the meridional regime we are in.

A shredded mature large oak tree.  that takes lots of power to do.  I bet at least EF4 damage in that video

[MossMan]

Up to 3” on the day! And the main drainage is doing great! 

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

With how much snow he normally gets this is probably accurate.

I’m conflicted…Will still have some leaves to mulch with the mower but I might need the plow on it by Monday…Can’t have both on…And it’s a bit of a pain to switch back and forth. OH THE DELEMA…In a good way! 

[Chowders]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is looking like a serious snow storm for north east WA.  Nws predicting 10-20 inches above 3k feet in Okanagan highlands.  Heavy duty.

Looks like 10 to 16 inches forecast for Winthrop at 1,900 feet elevation

[snow_wizard]

I've only had about 0.60" here today.  Very shadowed.  Interestingly rain shadows in the Central Puget Sound region during AR events are strongly associated with significant cold waves coming afterward.

[HuskyMaestro]

50 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Brrr!  Interestingly out of the 10 analogs listed for this pattern only one didn't lead to something really good later in the winter.

Northeast weenies seething right now

[Doinko]

Still raining very heavily

[Skagit Weather]

The heavy rain tapered off about 3 p.m. after picking up a little over 3" in a 24 hour period. Currently 2.30" on the day and 3.12" from the storm with some light mist coming down. Wettest day on my weather station I've ever recorded (15 years of record), although only by a couple hundredths at the moment.

It's not every day you pick up almost 10% of your annual precip in 24 hours.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z ECMWF shows an area of significant snowfall for Western Pierce County and extreme SW King County Monday night.  Looks like it is enhanced by some cold outflow from the passes.  Something to watch, although it would probably be too dry of air here if it verifies verbatim.  Tacoma could be a big winner if it's right.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Northeast weenies seething right now

Did they seriously believe the October pattern would hold?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

The heavy rain tapered off about 3 p.m. after picking up a little over 3" in a 24 hour period. Currently 2.30" on the day and 3.12" from the storm with some light mist coming down. Wettest day on my weather station I've ever recorded (15 years of record), although only by a couple hundredths at the moment.

It's not every day you pick up almost 10% of your annual precip in 24 hours.

What was the second wettest?

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  SEA was ridiculously shadowed today.  Only 0.21".  They could end up with a very dry November unless the coming blocky pattern abates later in the month.

[snow_wizard]

Another interesting thing is the fact SEA only ended up with a +1 temperature departure today.  Normally a plume like this would be a lot warmer.  Looks like CAA begins later this evening, so this was the warmest day.

[Skagit Weather]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

What was the second wettest?

May 28, 2010 had 2.24", but November 27, 2016 (2.22") and October 21, 2019 (2.20") were right behind it.

[TT-SEA]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Did they seriously believe the October pattern would hold?

Do you seriously believe this pattern will hold and they won't have their fun?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another interesting thing is the fact SEA only ended up with a +1 temperature departure today.  Normally a plume like this would be a lot warmer.  Looks like CAA begins later this evening, so this was the warmest day.

They forecasted a high here of 52 and we only got somewhere in the upper 30s.  Which is still a bit below normal for this time of year. 

Still an inch or so of snow, but the cold rain didn't melt all of it.  We will get snow overnight Saturday and also overnight Sunday, big question for us is whether or not it switches to rain or mixed rain and snow during the day Sunday 

[Omegaraptor]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Do you seriously believe this pattern will hold and they won't have their fun?

Well seeing cold dump into the lower 48 somewhere at this point is probably a better sign for winter than having a weak southwesterly zonal pattern with every state painted orange.

[Ellsworb]

1.1" and a high of 55 on the east shore of Lake Tapps.

 

[The Blob]

Still windy here in Troutdale, but the winds are going down.

[TacomaWx]

47 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z ECMWF shows an area of significant snowfall for Western Pierce County and extreme SW King County Monday night.  Looks like it is enhanced by some cold outflow from the passes.  Something to watch, although it would probably be too dry of air here if it verifies verbatim.  TACOMA could be a big winner if it's right.

Don’t get my hopes up jim 

[TacomaWx]

We might get a couple hundredths more of rain…but it looks like it’s mostly done here. 0.81” today and 1.06” MTD. We’ve had 2.93” of rain since 10/20 definitely not as much as many places so far since we finally turned on the faucet. Lots of W/NW flow has shadowed us. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GFS and GEFS agree on 850s bottoming out around -8 with this cold snap.  Impressive for this early.

Interesting that it continues to run colder than the other models by a few degrees.   It’ll probably end up running too cold. 
 

 

[TT-SEA]

Completely dry and pleasantly warm at the Huskies game... ECMWF nailed it.

[ShawniganLake]

I had to pull over on my way to Victoria late this morning when the SW wind kicked in.  It warmed up so quickly that my side view mirrors fogged up instantly 

[The Cats Meow]

Looking forward to the next ten days.  Cold crisp nights with the outside chance we may see a dusting of snow or snow in the air.

[TacomaWx]

Wind has really picked up here in the last hour. Earlier today it was kinda breezy but we’ve had some gusts around 40mph this evening. 

[Skagit Weather]

18 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Just 0.05" of rain here so far, but I have high hopes of scoring at least 0.5", or around 1/10 of what the models were showing a few days ago.

Is the rain really even supposed to have arrived in Eugene yet? It still looks to me that 2-3" is expected in the next couple days.

[Iceresistance]

Unrelated here, but there has been a horrible outbreak of tornadoes in NE Texas, SE Oklahoma, and SW to Western Arkansas in the past several hours  (11.4.2022)

[Doinko]

18z Euro seems slightly cooler I think, not as cool as the GFS though

[Skagit Weather]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We might get a couple hundredths more of rain…but it looks like it’s mostly done here. 0.81” today and 1.06” MTD. We’ve had 2.93” of rain since 10/20 definitely not as much as many places so far since we finally turned on the faucet. Lots of W/NW flow has shadowed us. 

7.58" since 10/20 here. Surprisingly, the ground still seems to be sucking up most of the water. At the very end of the day some of the farm fields had standing water, but even the creeks and drainage ditches were not nearly as full as they'd usually be on a wet day. I imagine this will change if it keeps raining though.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

7.58" since 10/20 here. Surprisingly, the ground still seems to be sucking up most of the water. At the very end of the day some of the farm fields had standing water, but even the creeks and drainage ditches were not nearly as full as they'd usually be on a wet day. I imagine this will change if it keeps raining though.

Usually your area is drier than mine. 2.93” of rain in 2 weeks during the near peak wet season is pretty mediocre lol. It’s been decently wet for most people besides our friends down in Eugene and some parts of the central Puget sound.