November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

51 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can you post the Eastern Washington map please 

Kuchera

 

[Perturbed Member]

2 hours ago, luterra said:

You didn't make it to my 1" bet, though it appears that most stations in the Eugene area did, e.g. 1.06" at the airport.

We only made it to 0.89" at my place in Corvallis.  The almost-straight-westerly, low-altitude AR created some powerful rain-shadow effects from coast range terrain - a smaller version of the Seattle donut hole.

Corvallis airport, in the rain shadow of Marys Peak (4100'), recorded only 0.60" in the last 24 hours.  Just five miles north of me the 24-hr totals increase to 1.5", and Monroe to the south of the rain shadow is at 1.22".

The local-scale variation and shadowing effects of this event were definitely on the extreme side, e.g. less than an inch across most of the Portland metro with areas of 6"+ in the adjacent coast range and Cascades.  Impressive lowland totals straight east of the Columbia River gap in the coast range: 4"+ around Longview.

At least as of 5 AM today HIO reported 1.88in and PDX 1.84in over the past 24 hours. Much less than what the GFS was modeling but the GFS was always on the high end compared to other models. HIO did escape the massive shadow that the WRF predicted for it. 

 

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

The snow maps didn't used to be like this. They must have changed something. They've always been far from perfect and always had biases, but this is ridiculous. The number of times they've shown literally 10+ inches of snow here within 48 hours while predicting temperatures well above freezing the last couple years has been extremely frustrating. 

The 12z GFS does think that heavy band will drop Everett to 33 degrees tonight around 4 AM though. Very little chance that comes close to happening though. 38 degree rain is much more reasonable.

The culprit is that this map interprets all precipitation with any dendritic presence as pure 10:1 snowfall. The new snow maps are annoying but not technically incorrect for their own screwed up parameters. All we have to do is put in some due diligence when looking at them... And it's fairly easy like you said to spot phantom snow.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

At least as of 5 AM today HIO reported 1.88in and PDX 1.84in over the past 24 hours. Much less than what the GFS was modeling but the GFS was always on the high end compared to other models. HIO did escape the massive shadow that the WRF predicted for it. 

 

Yeah I was surprised we escaped the shadow too. Around 2.4" of rain Thursday/Friday here. WRF only showed 1-1.25"

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

The snow maps didn't used to be like this. They must have changed something. They've always been far from perfect and always had biases, but this is ridiculous. The number of times they've shown literally 10+ inches of snow here within 48 hours while predicting temperatures well above freezing the last couple years has been extremely frustrating. 

The 12z GFS does think that heavy band will drop Everett to 33 degrees tonight around 4 AM though. Very little chance that comes close to happening though. 38 degree rain is much more reasonable.

Yeah in any marginal set up nowadays you’ve really got to check the temps and DPs. Seems like a simple fix to correct the error of models showing snow when it’s 38 degrees with a DP of 36 or 37 but I guess not. 

[bainbridgekid]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The culprit is that this map interprets all precipitation with any dendritic presence as pure 10:1 snowfall. The new snow maps are annoying but not technically incorrect for their own screwed up parameters. All we have to do is put in some due diligence when looking at them... And it's fairly easy like you said to spot phantom snow.

Even the Kuchera map is forecasting 6" here tonight. And those 10:1 maps used to be all we had access to and never showed nearly this much phantom snow. Something definitely changed.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Even the Kuchera map is forecasting 6" here tonight.

Still, interprets all of the precip as snow despite only a few flakes reaching the ground. Difference is, ratios are lower. 6" still piles up because a lot of precip is set to fall tonight.

[Meatyorologist]

I will say though, the Euro has some kind of stigmatism with its structures relating to snowfall accumulation, because holy hell. I've seen 4" in the midst of 42F rain, in situations where snow would never reach the ground.

[snow_wizard]

34 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Euro continues to show snow here but it’s falling at 37-38 degrees. Looking good for snow in places like BC…whatcom county…port angeles and possibly the kitsap peninsula though. It’s consistently showing precip in my area but just doesn’t seem likely it’ll be cold enough Sunday/Monday. 

Dry E to NE winds could help you there.  All in all though, the details just aren't going our way.  With the block we have right now what is modeled is about the worst possible outcome.  Even at that it will still end up well below normal on temps.  As of right now the details for week two are about as clear as mud other than low EPO and generally blocky.

[T-Town]

Still windy out there. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I will say though, the Euro has some kind of stigmatism with its structures relating to snowfall accumulation, because holy hell. I've seen 4" in the midst of 42F rain, in situations where snow would never reach the ground.

I'm really not impressed with the ECMWF surface temp and precip maps.  I've seen a lot of fails over the last couple of years.

[MossMan]

2 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Any trees "cut down" by the wind last night?

On my property I only lost a top portion of a cedar, otherwise just a mess of branches and leaves. 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Love it!

 

4th shade of blue! I like these colorful maps way better! 

[snow_wizard]

The GFS still insists Tuesday will be a really cold day.  I expect a compromise between it and the ECMWF is forthcoming.

[Deweydog]

In addition to telling me about the big warm blanket of clouds, my dad also told me as youngster that it needs to be cold enough to snow in order to snow. Pathetic.

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

4th shade of blue! I like these colorful maps way better! 

The 6-8” that it’s showing here would be kind of interesting considering a lot of trees are still nearly fully leafed out 

[Doinko]

Very heavy rain in SE Portland

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm really not impressed with the ECMWF surface temp and precip maps.  I've seen a lot of fails over the last couple of years.

Vast majority of the ECMWF fails are on the cool side.

[TacomaWx]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Dry E to NE winds could help you there.  All in all though, the details just aren't going our way.  With the block we have right now what is modeled is about the worst possible outcome.  Even at that it will still end up well below normal on temps.  As of right now the details for week two are about as clear as mud other than low EPO and generally blocky.

I’m pretty confident this won’t be our only chance for snow/cold this year. Next opportunity should surface in a few weeks or January by then it takes a few less things going right for something good to happen. This was never a solid opportunity so early in the season and takes everything going perfectly for something good to happen. Feel pretty confident about this winter overall. 

[bainbridgekid]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Vast majority of the ECMWF fails are on the cool side.

That seems like mainly a warm season issue. It seems like it overestimates the cooling effect of the Sound. Lots of days it’ll predict upper 60’s for Seattle and like 85 around Chehalis and in reality it’ll be more like mid-upper 70’s around Seattle.

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Also could be 2020-2022…

Me and my friends have come to just say, "everything is " 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We will be fine. The keyword is patience.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m pretty confident this won’t be our only chance for snow/cold this year. Next opportunity should surface in a few weeks or January by then it takes a few less things going right for something good to happen. This was never a solid opportunity so early in the season and takes everything going perfectly for something good to happen. Feel pretty confident about this winter overall. 

Well said.  Even a decent cold snap now is a bonus.  Kind of like it was in early Nov 1936.

[smerfylicious]

Running ~3 degrees cooler than forecast today. Need that to keep up if I'm scoring powder on Sunday. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

32 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

In addition to telling me about the big warm blanket of clouds, my dad also told me as youngster that it needs to be cold enough to snow in order to snow. Pathetic.

The apple seed doesn't fall far from the tree.

[Snownerd3000]

Anyone have a good mjo reference and it's affect month by month? I have a reference for a 3 month period but was curious if there is a good site showing how various phases effect specific months. 

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

That seems like mainly a warm season issue. It seems like it overestimates the cooling effect of the Sound. Lots of days it’ll predict upper 60’s for Seattle and like 85 around Chehalis and in reality it’ll be more like mid-upper 70’s around Seattle.

It usually seems conservative on low temps on clear nights during the cold season also.  On the precip side it is often too wet...at least for my area.  Then of course the issue of showing snow when the air mass isn't cold enough.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Running ~3 degrees cooler than forecast today. Need that to keep up if I'm scoring powder on Sunday. 

You might have powder if the freezing point of water was 40F.  If only...!

[smerfylicious]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You might have powder if the freezing point of water was 40F.  If only...!

My forecast says it's getting to ~35 on Sunday, so thatd be the miss to bring it to freezing.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Anyone have a good mjo reference and it's affect month by month? I have a reference for a 3 month period but was curious if there is a good site showing how various phases effect specific months. 

7 is almost always cold during the winter months.  5 is the biggest wild card.  I've seen many major blasts during that phase.  Normally with a strong wave that moves through the phases before 5 also.

[MossMan]

Windy day…Still! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Long night shift tonight!!!!

[Meatyorologist]

GFS is still steadfast on a snow event in the Puget Sound region Monday night. Subfreezing temps, weak Arctic front. Now within 2 and a half days.

Personally, I believe it's being too aggressive with that surface Arctic front, and we'll be left dry by the time it really gets here. But there's always a chance!

If it does indeed snow Monday night, temperatures will have a difficult time reaching freezing on Tuesday due to the snowcover. And the overnight mins could be extreme, even with small accumulations.

[Meatyorologist]

The GFS may remain persistent with this erroneous Arctic front progression until the very end, given that the bias is related to too little sfc friction. Errors may not show up until 24-48 hours out, as the Arctic front progresses through BC.

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

GFS is still steadfast on a snow event in the Puget Sound region Monday night. Subfreezing temps, weak Arctic front. Now within 2 and a half days.

Personally, I believe it's being too aggressive with that surface Arctic front, and we'll be left dry by the time it really gets here. But there's always a chance!

If it does indeed snow Monday night, temperatures will have a difficult time reaching freezing on Tuesday due to the snowcover. And the overnight mins could be extreme, even with small accumulations.

Not going to lie, the stalled Arctic front right over Bozeman has me . 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

GFS is still steadfast on a snow event in the Puget Sound region Monday night. Subfreezing temps, weak Arctic front. Now within 2 and a half days.

Personally, I believe it's being too aggressive with that surface Arctic front, and we'll be left dry by the time it really gets here. But there's always a chance!

If it does indeed snow Monday night, temperatures will have a difficult time reaching freezing on Tuesday due to the snowcover. And the overnight mins could be extreme, even with small accumulations.

Hoping for a surprise shower that brings a quick inch of snow here! That happened last year on December 13th, a shower brought some heavy snow, an inch in around 30 minutes. Very isolated too.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

37 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

My forecast says it's getting to ~35 on Sunday, so thatd be the miss to bring it to freezing.

I'm within 50 m of the forecast snow level tonight. Any negative departures in the temperature and I score.

[Randyc321]

1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

The snow maps didn't used to be like this. They must have changed something. They've always been far from perfect and always had biases, but this is ridiculous. The number of times they've shown literally 10+ inches of snow here within 48 hours while predicting temperatures well above freezing the last couple years has been extremely frustrating. 

The 12z GFS does think that heavy band will drop Everett to 33 degrees tonight around 4 AM though. Very little chance that comes close to happening though. 38 degree rain is much more reasonable.

They’re just trolling people for posting all the pepto maps on social media without knowing what they mean besides the pretty colors  . 

[selkirks]

Just dropping in to say "ugh" to the lack of precip in the midrange. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pretty amazing how heinous the mid range is trending. Not feeling too bad about my call for a near to slightly above average month temp wise. Probably a little drier than average too.

Glad we’re getting some really epic payback for the absolutely unprecedented run of heat mid July through October!