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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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1 minute ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

So GFS is at 9 tonight and Euro at 10? I can never keep the schedule straight.

GFS starts at 7:30... ECMWF at 9:50

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Getting some 39 degree rain right now. Very chilly day for November! Stayed around 40 degrees all day after the front moved through. 

I wonder if we can get some surprise snow

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2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Getting some 39 degree rain right now. Very chilly day for November! Stayed around 40 degrees all day after the front moved through. 

Chilly day here too. Afternoon high of just 41 after a midnight high of 47 and late morning low of 37. Sounds like no snow for either of us though, so I’m thinking everyone should make us a gofundme 😔 

Just to reiterate again, I did not get snow today 😞 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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4 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3 (Past 8 runs) Shows even better here the trough holding over us.

trend-gfs-2022110618-f072.500h_anom_na.gif

Great November so far. Atmospheric river with windstorm up north, rain/snow around the lowlands, and probably some cold mins and east wind. Now we just need a massive arctic blast in the second half of the month

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Down to 41 here…precip has held off so far which may bode well for us if it does finally move inland. We’re gonna need some decently heavy rates to get any snow tonight though it looks like.

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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Man it’s reaaally close to snow in a lot of the southern willamette valley but it’s just not quite there yet. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

Man it’s reaaally close to snow in a lot of the southern willamette valley but it’s just not quite there yet. 

Yup, 35 with some moderate rain.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yup, 35 with some moderate rain.

DPs are not far off of the temp so it might just need to get down to 33-34 to start seeing some flakes. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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Looking at the radar, it seems a deformation band may be starting to form centered on King County.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

HRRR saying no to Spokane snow tonight/tomorrow

 

yet the NWS has us under a WWA for 2-5"

00z NBM has snow. I know they use a blend of the models for their forecast. 

and I don't think the HRRR is that great 

nbm-conus-washington-total_snow_10to1-7894400.png

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1 hour ago, Perturbance said:

270'.  As of 5:20 pm there's still flakes coming down, sticking to the grass with slush on the roadways with about 0.5" accumulation.  32.5° and 1.59" total precip on the day so far, with the bulk of that falling between 4:30 am and 10:30 am before it started changing over to snow.  

I think this would be the earliest accumulating snow for the Corvallis area since 11/5/1973 when similar amounts generally fell.

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Sorry for my absence last night. Went out to Applebee's last night and it wrecked my stomach. Anyhow. Back at it tonight!

I think some of you must have been thinking Cold and SNOW!!!! as it led to a fun surprise for quite a few of you. There may be some lowland snow chances through Monday night before the upper low digs further south and drier, continental air spills southward from Canada. After that point it will be drying out turning sunny and crispy with a bit of a Winter chill! Well, somewhat. A bit later this week it appears we will be seeing a pattern conducive for cold pool development in the Columbia Basin and central/eastern Gorge. That will lead to chilly east winds for the Western Gorge and PDX east of I-205 mostly. Long range perhaps another block develops over Alaska, but it could be too far east to put us into another cold pattern. We shall see....

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬

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3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:
Sorry for my absence last night. Went out to Applebee's last night and it wrecked my stomach. Anyhow. Back at it tonight!

I think some of you must have been thinking Cold and SNOW!!!! as it led to a fun surprise for quite a few of you. There may be some lowland snow chances through Monday night before the upper low digs further south and drier, continental air spills southward from Canada. After that point it will be drying out turning sunny and crispy with a bit of a Winter chill! Well, somewhat. A bit later this week it appears we will be seeing a pattern conducive for cold pool development in the Columbia Basin and central/eastern Gorge. That will lead to chilly east winds for the Western Gorge and PDX east of I-205 mostly. Long range perhaps another block develops over Alaska, but it could be too far east to put us into another cold pattern. We shall see....

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬

Do you think any east winds will make it over the west hills and accelerate down to here? We get some really strong east wind in certain situations but not all the time. Downslope east winds from the cascades also don't seem to be that strong here. I think just gap winds are stronger

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6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:
Sorry for my absence last night. Went out to Applebee's last night and it wrecked my stomach. Anyhow. Back at it tonight!

I think some of you must have been thinking Cold and SNOW!!!! as it led to a fun surprise for quite a few of you. There may be some lowland snow chances through Monday night before the upper low digs further south and drier, continental air spills southward from Canada. After that point it will be drying out turning sunny and crispy with a bit of a Winter chill! Well, somewhat. A bit later this week it appears we will be seeing a pattern conducive for cold pool development in the Columbia Basin and central/eastern Gorge. That will lead to chilly east winds for the Western Gorge and PDX east of I-205 mostly. Long range perhaps another block develops over Alaska, but it could be too far east to put us into another cold pattern. We shall see....

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬

Crapplebee’s will do that to you! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Do you think any east winds will make it over the west hills and accelerate down to here? We get some really strong east wind in certain situations but not all the time. Downslope east winds from the cascades also don't seem to be that strong here. I think just gap winds are stronger

If I remember the WRF sounding looked like a relatively shallow cold layer especially late, so no downslope expected.

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

I think this would be the earliest accumulating snow for the Corvallis area since 11/5/1973 when similar amounts generally fell.

Interesting to note that was a Nina also and came dangerously close to a major January cold wave.  As it was it got chilly for a good period of time in January 1974.  I'm glad this cold snap is so early....it bodes better for January than a big cold wave mid to late month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The GFS is really smoking the good stuff on Wednesday night.  Low clouds make to Seattle with offshore pressure gradients! 🤣

Assuming that is in error Wednesday night looks really cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8 #NoRidgeNovember! LOL

500h_anom.na.png

Looks like an inversion pattern.  The GFS shows lows in the teens in the Basin.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Light rain and 40 degrees…gonna need much better precip rates then these to make things interesting. Overall the models seemed to look better overnight tomorrow than tonight but something could still happen by tomorrow morning. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

500h_anom.na.png

I'm liking how this amplification shows no signs of going anywhere.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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