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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance

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10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

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GFS is still steadfast on a snow event in the Puget Sound region Monday night. Subfreezing temps, weak Arctic front. Now within 2 and a half days.

Personally, I believe it's being too aggressive with that surface Arctic front, and we'll be left dry by the time it really gets here. But there's always a chance!

If it does indeed snow Monday night, temperatures will have a difficult time reaching freezing on Tuesday due to the snowcover. And the overnight mins could be extreme, even with small accumulations.

Guess we'll have to see with the surface details. Snow shows up Monday early evening and would be cold enough to support snowfall. 

I still think it's being a bit aggressive as well so we'll see how it plays out. 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Guess we'll have to see with the surface details. Snow shows up Monday early evening and would be cold enough to support snowfall. 

I still think it's being a bit aggressive as well so we'll see how it plays out. 

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I can tell you it will not be snowing in Hoquiam or  here at 1 PM on Monday.

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1 hour ago, Perturbed Member said:

At least as of 5 AM today HIO reported 1.88in and PDX 1.84in over the past 24 hours. Much less than what the GFS was modeling but the GFS was always on the high end compared to other models. HIO did escape the massive shadow that the WRF predicted for it. 

 

Yes, I was looking at 24-hour totals which missed the early part of the AR from Portland northward.  Most PDX stations over an inch but in the downtown area at river level mostly less than 1.5"

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This could be a long one. Fired up the fire as the house was starting to get a bit chilly. 
Currently 44 outside and up to 64 inside. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

12Z Euro has come on board with snow chances IMBY Monday morning. Surface temps are +1˚C with 925's of -1˚C during this time frame.

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But I’m in the white. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Once again my place did quite well with the big windstorm last night (knock on wood) this was the only thing I will need to take care of as it’s in my driveway turnaround by the main road. Otherwise we lost a few good sized alders but well into the woods where they will stay. Big tree is still across the main road to my north. We have had big winds each winter since moving here in spring of 2018. January 2021 we were without power for 4 days. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty amazing how heinous the mid range is trending. Not feeling too bad about my call for a near to slightly above average month temp wise. Probably a little drier than average too.

Glad we’re getting some really epic payback for the absolutely unprecedented run of heat mid July through October!

You would not like it here

 

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty amazing how heinous the mid range is trending. Not feeling too bad about my call for a near to slightly above average month temp wise. Probably a little drier than average too.

Glad we’re getting some really epic payback for the absolutely unprecedented run of heat mid July through October!

Going to be pretty hard to end up with a mild November after the first third is colder than the normal monthly average.  A lot of Gorge outflow being shown for week two.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

You would not like it here

 

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Few on here would.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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49 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

12Z Euro has come on board with snow chances IMBY Monday morning. Surface temps are +1˚C with 925's of -1˚C during this time frame.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_6hr-7844000.thumb.png.2d6f2ce07cf4cf7e126dfd8ecf228602.png

Good chance you will score something up there.  There is going to be some pretty cold Fraser outflow during this.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Here it comes! Here comes that unseasonably early November cold shot that was once looking very cold only to then look fairly cold only to be watered down to very chilly air mass! We've all said it at some point in our lives, but imagine if the trough was centered 200-300 miles further east.

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So why was Spokane NWS forecast discussion talking about Hugh winds back on Monday (and possibly earlier) while Seattle NWS didn't really take ot very seriously? At least until it was happening for areas outside of the Strait? Portland issued watches ahead of time. What's going on with Seattle? I really like them; it just seems weird to me. Gun shy? Ultra conservative? Something else? 

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(Also bringing this up to let my inner-weenie out and point out that I was having some thoughts about wind before hand...and remind everyone of my windstorm and snow predictions for December. You're welcome. 🤣)

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37 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Looks pretty good to me. 

Me too.   You can like pleasant weather destinations also like storms and snow.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, joelgombiner said:

Seems inevitable that this will flip at some point... 

 

 

It just flipped in favor of a cold west.  We were in the warmth a few weeks ago.  Pretty crazy how amplified things are remaining.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

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I have no expectations for snow from this and being so early I'm not that disappointed about it.  This one is going to be more about the cold mins.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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