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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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2 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Yeah I live near Bethany as well. It sucks that I haven't got snow, have you?

I saw a few flakes last night but not anything much. Hoping for some more chances this winter!

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

 

 Yeah the swamp area (Puyallup, Sumner and Auburn) are terrible for snow chances. Even worse than here definitely the worst place to live if you like snow. I lived in auburn for a couple years and Tacoma had more snow almost every time. Atleast it’s not as bad here as it is in Eugene 😂

Federal Way  does just as bad right? I am north it now. Cracks me up that I moved from one end of the swamp to the other 😂

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Does the east wind dry them out reducing precip there?

Not really sure how well my area does for snow at around 250', seems to be about average for the Portland metro area.  Sometimes we do great (18" in 2016/2017) and other times not as well (5" in 2017/2018 compared to 7.6" at PDX and 4.5" in 2020/2021 compared to 10.1" at PDX since we had more sleet)

East wind usually isn’t a problem there unless it’s a very strong east wind event. Something like February 2021 for example we had 15” of snow since we were just a few miles far enough west to cancel out the drying winds. With totals being cut almost in half 10 miles east. The “Swamp”  is all very low elevation and some UHI makes it snow hell. There were quite a few times living down in auburn I could see Lea hill up at 400’ was getting sticking snow while it was a mix down at my house. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Federal Way  does just as bad right? I am north it now. Cracks me up that I moved from one end of the swamp to the other 😂

Federal way is about the same as here…they’ve got some elevation atleast which really helps. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

 

 Yeah the swamp area (Puyallup, Sumner and Auburn) are terrible for snow chances. Even worse than here definitely the worst place to live if you like snow. I lived in auburn for a couple years and Tacoma had more snow almost every time. Atleast it’s not as bad here as it is in Eugene 😂

Is there a reason for why that is? I thought those towns were a bit farther inland just enough so the moderation of water doesn't have a bigger effect on snow chances? Or it doesn't matter cause they're right at sea level anyway?

I commute a lot between Puyallup and South Hill, and during cold waves where the snow level is just at 500', it couldn't be more obvious how higher up South Hill is.

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All those moments will be lost in time. . .
like tears in snow.
 ❞

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Just now, HuskyMaestro said:

Is there a reason for why that is? I thought those towns were a bit farther inland just enough so the moderation of water doesn't have a bigger effect on snow chances? Or it doesn't matter cause they're right at sea level anyway?

I commute a lot between Puyallup and South Hill, and during cold waves where the snow level is just at 500', it couldn't be more obvious how higher up South Hill is.

Yeah it’s just the elevation being 0-100’ for the most part. Even though I’m less than a mile from the sound I’m at 300’ and will get more snow than puyallup/auburn in a marginal set up. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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Looks like some places up north might do pretty good tonight. Precip has wrapped up here and doesn’t look like we will get much more. 40 degrees outside. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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1 hour ago, Olive1010 said:

I've been looking at a couple of models and GFS says we could get some snow or freezing rain in the night of Friday-Morning on Saturday. What do you guys think?

Probably a little early to say still. From what I've seen, GFS tends to overdo cold in winter and heat in summer. So take it with a grain of salt. 

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33 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Federal Way  does just as bad right? I am north it now. Cracks me up that I moved from one end of the swamp to the other 😂

Had a coworker who lives in Federal Way. They can do well, but it has to set up just right. The Sound can screw up some things and it can get shadowed/donut holed but it doesn't seem to lose the cold air quite as fast as Puyallup and Auburn do. Not sure what makes their microclimate work, but occasionally they do better than other cities nearby.

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Trying to make an accurate, high resolution map of average annual snowfall of Western Washington would be a really interesting albeit very challenging project. There are definitely places that see 2-3 times as much as others within quite short distances.

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  • Snow 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Here's a thought. If we establish a good Columbia Basin cold pool we just need a suppressed jet into California with a system approaching from the southwest for us to score, specifically PDX metro/Gorge. Something to think about.

ECMWF was showing some systems undercutting that massive ridge after the backdoor blast! That cold pool building is great to see. First this cold wave and then potentially another backdoor event.

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3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Here's a thought. If we establish a good Columbia Basin cold pool we just need a suppressed jet into California with a system approaching from the southwest for us to score, specifically PDX metro/Gorge. Something to think about.

Weather! Atmospheric conditions

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Trying to make an accurate, high resolution map of average annual snowfall of Western Washington would be a really interesting albeit very challenging project. There are definitely places that see 2-3 times as much as others within quite short distances.

It would but I would definitely welcome the efforts. The WRF-GFS isn't getting the job done, nor the other GFS or ECMWF snow maps.

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Just now, Doinko said:

ECMWF was showing some systems undercutting that massive ridge after the backdoor blast! That cold pool building is great to see. First this cold wave and then potentially another backdoor event.

Giggity.

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My Weather Station:

https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/43c4820b756fd66b92bce42e064ad594

Located near Covington / Black Diamond. Elevation ~550 ft.

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Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

It would but I would definitely welcome the efforts. The WRF-GFS isn't getting the job done, nor the other GFS or ECMWF snow maps.

Mark Nelsen posted a real detailed map of the PDX metro area before that showed the microclimates.  I would almost bet that one exists for Seattle.

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Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

It would but I would definitely welcome the efforts. The WRF-GFS isn't getting the job done, nor the other GFS or ECMWF snow maps.

How did West Gresham do in 2016/2017 in terms of snowfall?

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Just now, Terreboner said:

Mark Nelsen posted a real detailed map of the PDX metro area before that showed the microclimates.  I would almost bet that one exists for Seattle.

That was for precip, I think snowfall would be more challenging. 
BQ7MX4YGKNDPROK7FOMFKPMIUI.png
J7JHIUKLOVADZCN5ZXXMSKA4TY.png

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28 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

How's this November stack up for you compared to years past now?

No comparison. We’ve had more snow this month than all 11 previous ones combined. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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These events just go to show that our climate is changing frequently and it’s really bad, it went from like highs of 80 degrees to highs of like 43 degrees like dang only in like 4 or 5 weeks and it almost snowing for Portland 

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Weather! Atmospheric conditions

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25 minutes ago, Doinko said:

ECMWF was showing some systems undercutting that massive ridge after the backdoor blast! That cold pool building is great to see. First this cold wave and then potentially another backdoor event.

I love backdoor events the simpsons GIF

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17 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS Day 1 (Past 4 runs) Sorry was watching the end of the Blazers game! WOW. The last guy I would expect to buy a 3 pt game winner! UNREAL!

trend-gfs-2022110800-f024.500h_anom.na(1).gif

Kevin Calabro is the best ever. I sure do miss him up here in Seattle. 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Trying to make an accurate, high resolution map of average annual snowfall of Western Washington would be a really interesting albeit very challenging project. There are definitely places that see 2-3 times as much as others within quite short distances.

This would be a RAD project. Wouldn’t be that hard just really time consuming going through every station’s records, and trying to fill in crucial missing data. 

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