November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Olive1010]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Here's a thought. If we establish a good Columbia Basin cold pool we just need a suppressed jet into California with a system approaching from the southwest for us to score, specifically PDX metro/Gorge. Something to think about.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Trying to make an accurate, high resolution map of average annual snowfall of Western Washington would be a really interesting albeit very challenging project. There are definitely places that see 2-3 times as much as others within quite short distances.

It would but I would definitely welcome the efforts. The WRF-GFS isn't getting the job done, nor the other GFS or ECMWF snow maps.

[The Winter Warlock]

Just now, Doinko said:

ECMWF was showing some systems undercutting that massive ridge after the backdoor blast! That cold pool building is great to see. First this cold wave and then potentially another backdoor event.

Giggity.

[Olive1010]

Yeah, that would be cool 

 

[Terreboner]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

It would but I would definitely welcome the efforts. The WRF-GFS isn't getting the job done, nor the other GFS or ECMWF snow maps.

Mark Nelsen posted a real detailed map of the PDX metro area before that showed the microclimates.  I would almost bet that one exists for Seattle.

[Doinko]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

It would but I would definitely welcome the efforts. The WRF-GFS isn't getting the job done, nor the other GFS or ECMWF snow maps.

How did West Gresham do in 2016/2017 in terms of snowfall?

[Doinko]

Just now, Terreboner said:

Mark Nelsen posted a real detailed map of the PDX metro area before that showed the microclimates.  I would almost bet that one exists for Seattle.

That was for precip, I think snowfall would be more challenging. 

[Olive1010]

Just now, Doinko said:

That was for precip, I think snowfall would be more challenging. 

Yeah on the 2nd pic that’s where I live. In the yellow space

[Doinko]

Just now, Olive1010 said:

Yeah on the 2nd pic that’s where I live. In the yellow space

Yeah our area is pretty dry compared to a lot of the area. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

That was for precip, I think snowfall would be more challenging. 

Bet it has somehting to do with how much harder it is to get enough trained weather spotters for accurate snowfall measurements compared to weather stations that can measure rainfall for people. 

[Kayla]

15 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Wow that's awesome, Andrew! All that's needed now are Christmas lights!

00z GFS in 19 minutes

You ask and you shall receive!

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

You ask and you shall receive!

OOhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh,........... I need this in my life. Immediately. That is amazing!!!!!!!!!!!!! Merry Christmas!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

28 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

How's this November stack up for you compared to years past now?

No comparison. We’ve had more snow this month than all 11 previous ones combined. 

[Olive1010]

These events just go to show that our climate is changing frequently and it’s really bad, it went from like highs of 80 degrees to highs of like 43 degrees like dang only in like 4 or 5 weeks and it almost snowing for Portland 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1 (Past 4 runs) Sorry was watching the end of the Blazers game! WOW. The last guy I would expect to buy a 3 pt game winner! UNREAL!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 2 (Past 4 runs) No need to post the 24, 48hr precip maps.

[Snownerd3000]

25 minutes ago, Doinko said:

ECMWF was showing some systems undercutting that massive ridge after the backdoor blast! That cold pool building is great to see. First this cold wave and then potentially another backdoor event.

I love backdoor events 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 3 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

Cold, gusty east wind!

[Kolk1604]

17 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS Day 1 (Past 4 runs) Sorry was watching the end of the Blazers game! WOW. The last guy I would expect to buy a 3 pt game winner! UNREAL!

Kevin Calabro is the best ever. I sure do miss him up here in Seattle. 

 

 

[Brennan]

39 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Trying to make an accurate, high resolution map of average annual snowfall of Western Washington would be a really interesting albeit very challenging project. There are definitely places that see 2-3 times as much as others within quite short distances.

This would be a RAD project. Wouldn’t be that hard just really time consuming going through every station’s records, and trying to fill in crucial missing data. 

[Brennan]

23 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

These events just go to show that our climate is changing frequently and it’s really bad, it went from like highs of 80 degrees to highs of like 43 degrees like dang only in like 4 or 5 weeks and it almost snowing for Portland 

Yeah, so bad.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs) No run-to-run consistency after Day 4 with handling the cut-off low that is. The other main players are fairly similar.

[MossMan]

Very sloppy snow and 36 currently. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Kind of ugly

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Kind of ugly

Probably not a warm pattern though. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably not a warm pattern though. 

Nope, definitely not. I hope your snow NEVER melts. *Hint: how are those Christmas lights coming along?

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 25 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (Past 4 runs) Pivotttttt!!!!!!!!!!! Pivotttt!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Doinko]

This could be going somewhere

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Olive1010]

Yeah rod hills is saying we could have some snow in the morning hours of Saturday 

[Canadian guy]

Snowing quite heavily at the moment in Victoria with strong outflow winds! Grass and roofs are covered and starting to stick to pavement. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

I can barely contain my excitement, but I'm trying for your sake!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[bainbridgekid]

34 minutes ago, Brennan said:

This would be a RAD project. Wouldn’t be that hard just really time consuming going through every station’s records, and trying to fill in crucial missing data. 

Accurate snowfall data is so sparse and inconsistent that you’d have to lean almost entirely on personal knowledge and expertise of our microclimates.

Easiest way would probably be to start with a topographic map and make adjustments for latitude, outflow, shadowing, convergence, cold air damming, orographic lift, and proximity to the water.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

8 minutes ago, Canadian guy said:

Snowing quite heavily at the moment in Victoria with strong outflow winds! Grass and roofs are covered and starting to stick to pavement. 

Looks pretty good back in Saanich. I wasn't expecting to miss something like this coming back Nov 11th. I wonder if there will still be any around at the end of the week

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The web came in Saanich look quite wintery

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US.

[Gradient Keeper]

Be back for the 00z EURO in 1 hour.

[Canadian guy]

30 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Looks pretty good back in Saanich. I wasn't expecting to miss something like this coming back Nov 11th. I wonder if there will still be any around at the end of the week

I assume we will only get a couple of inches at most so likely will be gone by then…however this week will be cool with low dew points so it might be a slow melt. 

[Skagit Weather]

Had about 5-10 minutes of heavy snow-rain mix. At its peak it was probably 90% snow and started accumulating on the cars as the temp dropped down to 34F. I was able to make a very small slush ball before it disappeared. Looks like that's the end of the precipitation, but it's the first snow of the year!

[Brennan]

12 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Accurate snowfall data is so sparse and inconsistent that you’d have to lean almost entirely on personal knowledge and expertise of our microclimates.

Easiest way would probably be to start with a topographic map and make adjustments for latitude, outflow, shadowing, convergence, cold air damming, orographic lift, and proximity to the water.

Set aside a week next summer and hit the books? We can get Scott Sistek and some other PNW experts to join in on the project… who in??? Show of hands!!! Lol

[bainbridgekid]

This would be about as dry an 8 day stretch as we ever get in mid November around here. Most of this already fell this evening.

 

[Olive1010]

Yeah guys there may be a 2% chance we get some mixed precip on saturday in portland.  I mean, the models are fluctuating, so its close to zero. We have to see as we get closer to saturday.  IDK

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Yeah guys there may be a 2% chance we get some mixed precip on saturday in portland.  I mean, the models are fluctuating, so its close to zero. We have to see as we get closer to saturday.  IDK

 

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, HuskyMaestro said:

I feel this so hard, the immediate Tacoma area just feels like it gets snubbed a lot from snow over the years. And if we get snow, other areas get 4 inches more. Maybe cause it’s surrounded by more water on three sides? Probably why it’s addicting for me to look at new houses in North Bend or even Omak/Colville on Redfin lol.

Besides being shadowed a lot of the times the south winds sneak in down here as well and end a snow event.  It is a sad area for snow.  It’s also been my experience driving from Federal away to the Tacoma Costco for work we can have 3 inches of snow here and when I get down to the flats of Fife theirs dusting then as I reach the building back up to 3 inches.  Fife definitely the worst  

[ShawniganLake]

There’s about 1” of snow here. Starting to stick to the roads. 33F.