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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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Temporary pullback right on schedule

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Temporary pullback right on schedule

Then the Nov 3rd 00z Euro will bring the arctic air all the way into southern Oregon with historic cold and snow for the region.

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That's tomorrow night. Sounds about right.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Nws disc. Finally giving its first hint of possible low snow levels Sunday/Monday. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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Back to the present it’s 50 and mostly sunny here. Some decent looking showers moving inland right now. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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.94 inches of rain since aprox noon yesterday. Still raining. Down to 37F outside here. Heat is now a 70 burger at our house. That was for you TWL.

IMG_20221101_153749207.jpg

IMG_20221101_154438784.jpg

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2022-2023 snowfall totals: 1.75 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 1 inch: Nov 1-2

Coldest low: 13F (11/29/2022)

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28BF8648-7307-45BC-AAA4-E78A9075247C.png

Still gets there!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Currently a chilly 44 IMBY.  No matter how you slice it the first third of the month is going to average way below normal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Nice squall line in the Willamette Valley about to cross I5.

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  • Storm 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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West Salem getting lightning out of this.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Fantastic forum signs!!! Blocks are always too far East, west, north, south…Reminds me of the week before the December 2021, February 2021, January 2020, February 2019, February 2018, December 2017, January 2012 events…Just to name a few (many other honorable mentions over the last decade) 

Its coming! 

Yeah, definitely too early to write this thing off. Pretty much every great snow/cold event has lots of swings on the models in the lead up. I’m definitely still on the skeptical side of this one but we will see where we’re at by this weekend. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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Wow!  I see the number of members online has soared today.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, definitely too early to write this thing off. Pretty much every great snow/cold event has lots of swings on the models in the lead up. I’m definitely still on the skeptical side of this one but we will see where we’re at by this weekend. 

Pretty much even the worse solutions now are still unseasonably chilly.  Nice to get things started early!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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It's becoming obvious that exactly how far east or west the trough digs is going to have huge implications.  Things like that can change quickly and without warning.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty much even the worse solutions now are still unseasonably chilly.  Nice to get things started early!

No doubt it’ll be fairly cold. Even in a worst case scenario I wouldn’t be surprised if SEA challenges or even puts up a couple new record Min/Maxes. Some people on the forum in favored locations will probably see some snow too (Randy, Tim, Shawnigan lake & snowmizer). Even if it doesn’t snow or we don’t manage any sub 40 highs for most places it’ll still be pretty impressive. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

 

This November is off to a pretty interesting start. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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24 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Friday still looks moist.

Major rain shadow here. 
 

 

 

AFA01D35-C5A4-456D-9B4D-9F46DE97AC69.jpeg

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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The GFS shows us going into a dry / cold night pattern after the cold trough relaxes.  The 1936 analog may still be alive.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

OR is the new tornado alley!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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18 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

GEFS is much colder than operational run, this is not over yet.

It is very nice.  Great looking pattern.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

I just looked at several mesoscale models and don't see this.  I have been paying attention to the LR.  Is this forecast?  It looks interesting and today is sort of boring.

A1.jpg

NAM3km has something 

nam3km_ref_frzn_nwus_6.png

 

Radar certainly looks more impressive than what the simulated NAM radar shows.

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1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

NAM3km has something 

nam3km_ref_frzn_nwus_6.png

 

Radar certainly looks more impressive than what the simulated NAM radar shows.

Yeah, thanks.  I saw that but it's not near as robust as the actual returns, which is a switch.

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2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Beautiful afternoon here in Central OR.  View from my dining room, sorry about the lights in the window :).

Here is what is left of snow on Gray Butte and the surrounding peaks.  Smith Rock is just below but obscured by the trees.

20221101_162132.jpg

20221101_162143.jpg

Surprised there’s so many leaves on the trees this late in the year. Could see a lot of tree damage if heavy snow falls next week.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Surprised there’s so many leaves on the trees this late in the year. Could see a lot of tree damage if heavy snow falls next week.

Haven't really had any big storms yet.  Overnight and today has been pretty much it.

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11 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Improvement in the 18z GEFS is much more important than a good 18z gfs run

We don't like this kind of reason and logic here. Banned.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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48/39 here today.  Nice chilly start to the month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Nice to see the ensemble mean actually improved. Once we get inside of a few days the ensembles start to mean less but at this range it’s a pretty good indicator. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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