November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Had a bit of a lull from 1-4 but dumping again. Up to ~15

We are at about 14 inches here near chesaw. Really starting to rip again. This will go in the record books for one of the largest early November snows in this area. Still a bunch to come tonight. Another 5-10 looks doable.  24 degrees currently.  Also just got a report from home that it's snowing very wet flakes  

[MossMan]

Currently 37.4 degrees outside, 69.3 inside. Still on generator power. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

We are at about 14 inches here near chesaw. Really starting to rip again. This will go in the record books for one of the largest early November snows in this area. Still a bunch to come tonight. Another 5-10 looks doable.  24 degrees currently.  Also just got a report from home that it's snowing very wet flakes  

Not surprising it’s snowing out near your house. Just doesn’t look like it’ll get cold enough here tonight think tomorrow might be a better chance but still not high odds. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Not surprising it’s snowing out near your house. Just doesn’t look like it’ll get cold enough here tonight think tomorrow might be a better chance but still not high odds. 

The odds are better than you might think.  NEVER underestimate what can happen when there's any Frazer outflow. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The odds are better than you might think.  NEVER underestimate what can happen when there's any Frazer outflow. 

That’s why I’ve been paying attention sometimes there’s surprises…but as currently forecasted not very high odds. 

[Doinko]

Weather app says it's snowing right now but it looks like rain maybe mixed with some flakes, not sure though

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Weather app says it's snowing right now but it looks like rain maybe mixed with some flakes, not sure though

sounds like it’s time for a streetlight/positive splat test. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1 (Past 4 runs)

24hr Rainfall, Snowfall totals (Snow for PDX metro?)

[Cold Snap]

Just got into Sea-Tac where it’s currently 39 and raining with a dew point of 37

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (Past 4 runs)

48hr Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

sounds like it’s time for a streetlight/positive splat test. 

Definitely close to snow it seems but it's very light and I don't see any flakes yet

[Chewbacca Defense]

Awesome to see the snow for parts of the Willamette Valley.  Up here in Bellingham we hit 45 and actually had a few sun breaks, but otherwise lots of dark clouds all around.  Never saw anything more than cold rain.  Curious to see what tonight will bring.  Currently down to 35.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs) C'mon big ridge at ~145 W!

72hr Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs) Look at that dumb little cut-off low!

[Snownerd3000]

Not bad 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Not bad 

Not bad? You got that right. There's the retrogression I was thinking we might see! Thanks for posting it!

[smerfylicious]

Temps have been stuck at 37 at my house for the last several hours. Starting to drop finally...just need a few degrees to get some mix. Had rain/snow mix this morning and my mountains are absolutely caked. Gonna grab some pictures once the system clears up tomorrow. Absolutely gorgeous.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

That was a major eastside cold pool and gorge event and was very impressive here despite the lack of snow. We had 8 highs below freezing and 6 lows in the single digits at Vancouver. 

Nice.  Looking at the Landsburg records there 9 consecutive days with mins in the 11 to 20 range.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

Temps have been stuck at 37 at my house for the last several hours. Starting to drop finally...just need a few degrees to get some mix. Had rain/snow mix this morning and my mountains are absolutely caked. Gonna grab some pictures once the system clears up tomorrow. Absolutely gorgeous.

36 here. Looks like snow mixing in. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Nice.  Looking at the Landsburg records there 9 consecutive days with mins in the 11 to 20 range.

I live 10 mins from landsburg. Snow starting to mix here. 

[snow_wizard]

Down to 38 here with rain now.  Models show the best chance of snow here will be in the early morning.  Looking really good for some unseasonably cold lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

36 here. Looks like snow mixing in. 

Figured you’d see some snow for sure. Hanging tough at 39 degrees here. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

I live 10 mins from landsburg. Snow starting to mix here. 

That post was regarding January 1974 if you were wondering.  That season had an early November cold snap very much like this one.

[Gradient Keeper]

Down to 36.7 with moderate rain and sloppy flakes mixing in!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 ugly lol

[SouthHillFrosty]

38 and very cold rain. No mixing yet

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 7 ugly lol

Huge potential for retrogression though. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

38 and very cold rain. No mixing yet

Looks like the de-formation band is right over you…it is slowly lifting north but there’s precipitation starting to move north out of SW WA as well. Has had a hard time moving north all evening but seems to be intensifying a bit now. 

[snow_wizard]

BTW.  The ECMWF shows a lot of low level cold even with that enormous ridge so close later in the run.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8

Wow!  That is an eye popping block.

[snow_wizard]

This November is starting to look like it has 1936 potential.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er trying to go somewhere with retrogression potential and I spy a favorable cut-off low/Kona.

[Sonny Summers]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er trying to go somewhere with retrogression potential and I spy a favorable cut-off low/Kona.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Doinko]

Wow

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW.  The ECMWF shows a lot of low level cold even with that enormous ridge so close later in the run.

Quite a bit warmer than the 12Z run for next weekend and beyond.    Not exactly cold.