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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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This little event has been rather enjoyable. I'm put in mind of 1988, 2000, and 2017. I definitely hope we transition into more of a normal November zonal pattern rather than a massive ridge. It would be wonderful to build a nice snowpack in the mountains and get the ski season off to a great start. 

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53 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Have looked at housing prices there? It's insane. 

You can buy in our subdivision for 800-900k.  Probably not out of line with a lot of other places around the world.  We bought before housing prices jumped but our family of 4 live on an annual income of around 100k.  Average in our neighborhood is probably 130-140k annually. 

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3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

12z ECMWF, another EURO Op run featuring a significant backdoor cold shot/blast. Since it's so far out beyond Day 7 I'm not taking it too seriously. That is a bitter air mass we are dangerously close to tapping into though. C'MON!!!!

850th.us_nw.png

I was thinking of spending a day in Santiam Pass / Sisters area weekend before Thanksgiving. Hopefully it gets cold!

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So far the storm here has been a total bust. NWS forecast at 3am this morning said 10-20" for my area today. We have 2" currently with the back edge just now passing through. Storm total 8" Forecast was for 24-30" Pretty lame 

 

Edit. Looks like Mammoth will get dumped on as the strongest part of the storm went south

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7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

You can buy in our subdivision for 800-900k.  Probably not out of line with a lot of other places around the world.  We bought before housing prices jumped but our family of 4 live on an annual income of around 100k.  Average in our neighborhood is probably 130-140k annually. 

I bought my house for 185K USD in 2011, the market has calmed down a little, but the last I checked it was estimated around $600K, pretty standard older (1974) house, on about 3 acres. Probably always going to pay a little more living on an island, I would also assume BC has fairly strict zoning/building laws. That is one thing people don't realize that makes the West Coast so much more expensive than say the Midwest. In Texas or Oklahoma there is little regulation, and few zoning restrictions. On the west coast there is always very tight supply which leads to artificial shortages. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I bought my house for 185K USD in 2011, the market has calmed down a little, but the last I checked it was estimated around $600K, pretty standard older (1974) house, on about 3 acres. Probably always going to pay a little more living on an island, I would also assume BC has fairly strict zoning/building laws. That is one thing people don't realize that makes the West Coast so much more expensive than say the Midwest. In Texas or Oklahoma there is little regulation, and few zoning restrictions. On the west coast there is always very tight supply which leads to artificial shortages. 

We pay a premium to live here on the west coast. I much rather live here then Ohio 

Edited by SouthHillFrosty
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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

We pay a premium to live here on the west coast. I much rather live here than then Ohio 

Yeah, it makes sense. Personally, I am not opposed to some of the restrictive zoning laws we have, urban growth boundaries, etc... But we do pay for it. 

I also know my neighbor cannot put a strip mall or casino on the vacant land next to us. It is zoned for timber production, but since they have owned it since before 1974 they can divide it into 9 acre plots. They never have, but it would not be the worst thing in the world. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

610temp.new.gif

610prcp.new.gif

First step to a great winter is the cold being on our side of the pole. I like where we’re at with that. Plenty of time until winter primetime for it to shift back west, which it hopefully does.

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I bought my house for 185K USD in 2011, the market has calmed down a little, but the last I checked it was estimated around $600K, pretty standard older (1974) house, on about 3 acres. Probably always going to pay a little more living on an island, I would also assume BC has fairly strict zoning/building laws. That is one thing people don't realize that makes the West Coast so much more expensive than say the Midwest. In Texas or Oklahoma there is little regulation, and few zoning restrictions. On the west coast there is always very tight supply which leads to artificial shortages. 

In Tahoe they only allow around 115 building permits a year and they run out in 2035 from a rule drafted back in the 1960's. So after that if you want to build a new house in Tahoe you have to tear down a current one. 

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3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

In Tahoe they only allow around 115 building permits a year and they run out in 2035 from a rule drafted back in the 1960's. So after that if you want to build a new house in Tahoe you have to tear down a current one. 

We do not have the permit system like that up here that I am aware of, but a few years ago when my wife was working in Lake Oswego, it was pretty common for developers to come in and purchase perfectly nice smaller houses on big lots and tear them down and build big $2-3m homes. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

12z ECMWF, another EURO Op run featuring a significant backdoor cold shot/blast. Since it's so far out beyond Day 7 I'm not taking it too seriously. That is a bitter air mass we are dangerously close to tapping into though. C'MON!!!!

850th.us_nw.png

I'd would take it more seriously than a 5 day GFS map

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Worst case scenario is westerlies break through and we get screaming coast to coast zonal flow for 2-3 weeks starting around the 20th. Doesn't really seem like that kind of year though. 

That’s hardly a worst case scenario. Honestly sounds great to me! 👍 

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8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

broke freezing out, 33

 

gunna go put some deicer on the driveway (it sits in the shade in the winter, oof) and hopefully melt some ice.  Wind scoured out most of the snow off the drive

Felts Field is up to 36 after a low in the teens. The early November sun angle is still pretty high.

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Really hoping the upslope does it's thing over here this evening.  If only that low could've parked about a 100 miles further north.  Looks like Klamath Falls is going to do fairly well.

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Got down to 37 this morning 42 now. Feels much colder though very strong north winds are ripping here. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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Places getting a little warmer than expected has nothing to do with “high” early November sun angles. The airmass just isn’t that cold.

Most of February 2019 had higher sun angles than today.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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18 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

Felts Field is up to 36 after a low in the teens. The early November sun angle is still pretty high.

yeah we usually run 3-5 degrees lower than Felts for some reason back here near the Saltese 

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Places getting a little warmer than expected has nothing to do with “high” early November sun angles. The airmass just isn’t that cold.

Most of February 2019 had higher sun angles than today.

Sun angles are the same as they would be in late January/early February lol. Definitely not a sun angle problem. It’s fairly chilly here though pretty close to forecast atleast at my house should get up to 44-46. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Canada seems like a nice country. Is your society completely collapsing like the United States? 

I have also always been under the impression one needs to earn a tremendous amount of money to live well in Canada. Say a family with 5 children makes a combined $140k USD annually, could they live well on Vancouver Island? 

You are going to pay crazy taxes in Canada and things are just more expensive.  Living on the border, I can tell you that there is no shortage of Canadians coming down to Bellingham to shop eve now with a very weak CAD.  It's not as bad as when the USD was weaker, but still plenty of Canadians showing up Friday through Sunday.

I think gas in Vancouver is penciling out to about $7 USD per gallon.  @Rubus Leucodermis could probably speak better about the cost impacts of living in the US vs Canada since he moved there in the past year.

 

I would love to live on Vancouver Island, it has a nice vibe to it.  There was a time that I thought Vancouver would be a cool city if I had to live in a "big city" but I don't think I could do it any more.  I would also love to live up on the Sunshine Coast, but I would imagine home prices are insane there (I haven't looked, don't want to know)

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Sun angles are the same as they would be in late January/early February lol. Definitely not a sun angle problem. It’s fairly chilly here though pretty close to forecast atleast at my house should get up to 44-46. 

I'm supposed to hit 35, currently 33

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North wind is really ripping here…gusting 30-35mph. The waves down in commencement bay are big right now probably 3-4’. Always fun when the offshore winds start rolling and we get the huge waves hitting the waterfront. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

You are going to pay crazy taxes in Canada and things are just more expensive.  Living on the border, I can tell you that there is no shortage of Canadians coming down to Bellingham to shop eve now with a very weak CAD.  It's not as bad as when the USD was weaker, but still plenty of Canadians showing up Friday through Sunday.

I think gas in Vancouver is penciling out to about $7 USD per gallon.  @Rubus Leucodermis could probably speak better about the cost impacts of living in the US vs Canada since he moved there in the past year.

Taxes are higher on this side of the border, but not terribly so IMO, and it cuts both ways (health care costs A LOT less, in part due to those higher taxes). Gas is around $2 CAD / litre which if I do my math right works out to $5.67 USD / gallon. More expensive, but not $7/gallon expensive.

A big part of the reason why so many Canadians shop in Bellingham is simply the selection. A lot of US brands and chains are missing in Canada. The Bellingham Trader Joe's has the best sales per square foot of any Trader Joe's store, because there are no TJ's in Canada.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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23 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Really hoping the upslope does it's thing over here this evening.  If only that low could've parked about a 100 miles further north.  Looks like Klamath Falls is going to do fairly well.

Yup. This is the type of set up where we could be in for a surprise. I’m on the south edge of Bend so I can really benefit from the upslope flow here. 

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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19 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Places getting a little warmer than expected has nothing to do with “high” early November sun angles. The airmass just isn’t that cold.

Most of February 2019 had higher sun angles than today.

It's decently cold (especially for early November!) but also quite shallow.

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Most of February 2019 was cloudy, at least here. Cloudy and snowy. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The big question is how accessible is legal cannabis in BC? Very I would hope. 

Anyways, we melted a little snow today, but not much, it has clouded up now and we are sitting at 40. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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SLE hits 54. BARF. At least EUG is still reppin' the 40s. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Most of February 2019 was cloudy, at least here. Cloudy and snowy. 

February 2019 was better than December 2008 in my opinion Atleast at my location. Not as cold as a couple of the days but much snowier and had more sub freezing highs. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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16 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

Yup. This is the type of set up where we could be in for a surprise. I’m on the south edge of Bend so I can really benefit from the upslope flow here. 

DRW?

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The big question is how accessible is legal cannabis in BC? Very I would hope.

Totally legal! In the USA, “legal” cannabis is actually in a legal gray area, still illegal under Federal law. It’s just that some states have chosen not to enforce the Federal law, and in those states the Feds have chosen not to enforce it themselves. In Canada, there is no gray area, it is legal, period.

One upshot is that you don’t have to pay cash to buy pot in Canada. Most all pot shops take credit or debit, just like any other retail business. In the USA, banks are afraid to have close relationships with cannabis retailers because it is still illegal at the Federal level.

Still completely verboten to take it across the border. I think this is mostly due to the borders being under control of the Federal government, and cannabis still being illegal at the Federal level in the USA.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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17 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

Yup. This is the type of set up where we could be in for a surprise. I’m on the south edge of Bend so I can really benefit from the upslope flow here. 

Also, just noticed radar echoes being picked up in the foothills east of Salem, perhaps Andrew will see some more snow if it isn't downsloping too much.  Bodes well for us to see those radar echoes this far north.  We really need radar over here, it sickens me.

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The big question is how accessible is legal cannabis in BC? Very I would hope. 

Anyways, we melted a little snow today, but not much, it has clouded up now and we are sitting at 40. 

very accessible

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41 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Places getting a little warmer than expected has nothing to do with “high” early November sun angles. The airmass just isn’t that cold.

Most of February 2019 had higher sun angles than today.

I said sun angles are still pretty high. I should have included a preface to my statement, when compared to December and January. Our current sun angle is more like early February. So, please excuse me for the omission. I made no statement about the air mass itself. All things being equal, it would likely be colder in December and January.

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