November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US

[SouthHillFrosty]

17 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Looks like the de-formation band is right over you…it is slowly lifting north but there’s precipitation starting to move north out of SW WA as well. Has had a hard time moving north all evening but seems to be intensifying a bit now. 

I was hoping for a mix from the heavier shower but nope

[The Blob]

It's showing snow but definitely rain falling 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US

[The Blob]

Those 30s on the map is Mt. Scott

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

00z ECMWF 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US

Most of the precip for western WA over the next 10 days is falling tonight... pretty crazy for November.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

925s just cooled to 0c over PDX metro and Puget Sound/EPSL. Hmmm....

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

925s just cooled to 0c over PDX metro and Puget Sound/EPSL. Hmmm....

Surprise snowstorm please!

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Doinko said:

Surprise snowstorm please!

Snowstorm probably unlikely, but a surprise slush event could occur.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

925s just cooled to 0c over PDX metro and Puget Sound/EPSL. Hmmm....

I was just thinking about asking what the 925s were actually lol

[Gradient Keeper]

Temp: 35.7(Falling) and now quite a bit of sloppiness mixing in the rain!

[Doinko]

Definitely some snowflakes mixing in

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

I was just thinking about asking what the 925s were actually lol

ECMWF has been doing really well in terms of 925 temps... shows the current situation quite well.

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I was hoping for a mix from the heavier shower but nope

Wouldn’t count on it tonight but I wouldn’t be surprised if something happened sometime tomorrow morning. Should cool down a couple degrees by then. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF has been doing really well in terms of 925 temps... shows the current situation quite well.

Way to ruin the phantom snow party TIM

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF has been doing really well in terms of 925 temps... shows the current situation quite well.

Not bad, might be trying to moderate a tad too much. I do like seeing the colder low level air moving down into eastern Washington. That should continue and spill towards the eastern Gorge.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Snow flakes mixing in with the rain here. Down to 36.8F

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Way to ruin the phantom snow party TIM

Yeah, jeez c'mon man.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Way to ruin the phantom snow party TIM

Actually good timing with the precip overnight.   Tomorrow is sort of irrelevant since there won't be much precip then.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Snow flakes mixing in with the rain here. Down to 36.8F

Ya gotta believeeeeeeeeeee!!!!! Ya gotta believe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[The Blob]

7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Ya gotta believeeeeeeeeeee!!!!! Ya gotta believe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[snow_wizard]

Positive splat test here already.  The precip intensity seems to be heavier than modeled.  37 degrees.

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

Just a little bit of potential there.

[Omegaraptor]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Most of the precip for western WA over the next 10 days is falling tonight... pretty crazy for November.

 

Idk. I pretty much expect a couple decently long (a week-ish) dry spells in Nov-Jan. It’s the western PNW and we think of rain as the default this time of year, but dry stretches here and there aren’t exactly a super abnormal thing.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Idk. I pretty much expect a couple decently long (a week-ish) dry spells in Nov-Jan. Not exactly a super abnormal thing.

This might be something pretty exceptional though.  Incredibly amplified regime.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEM

That's an amazing block. GFS doesn't seem fully onboard though

[RentonHill]

18 inches…plz stop now need to go home in the morning

[TT-SEA]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

18 inches…plz stop now need to go home in the morning

Might go until late morning out there based on ECMWF.

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This might be something pretty exceptional though.  Incredibly amplified regime.

True. Excellent indication that the cold is on our side of the pole. The fact that nearly every rain-bringing system up to this point has been accompanied with a cold airmass is a very good sign as well. We haven’t gotten any extended warm/stagnant SW flow rain. Usually don’t see that this early in the season.

[Kolk1604]

I'm not an expert, but it looks like the EPS is going places starring at Day 10.

Here's day 12, cold air starting to move west. 

[Requiem]

Heh, dumping snow and foggy-- nothing sticking of course.

[TacomaWx]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Positive splat test here already.  The precip intensity seems to be heavier than modeled.  37 degrees.

I’d imagine you’ll probably see some snow mix in within the next hour or so. 

[Cold Snap]

Back home now. Currently 37 with chunky rain falling. This is kinda giving me 11/5/2017 vibes but with a colder airmass following. I would definitely be satisfied with a repeat of that I was still able to get an inch and it even stuck to the pavement on side roads despite the temp not going below 32.

[The Blob]

Rain has lightened up, still says snow but doesn't really feel like it.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

Back home now. Currently 37 with chunky rain falling. This is kinda giving me 11/5/2017 vibes but with a colder airmass following. I would definitely be satisfied with a repeat of that I was still able to get an inch and it even stuck to the pavement on side roads despite the temp not going below 32.

2017 will likely end up better overall in terms of snowfall over this one…but the low temps look like they’ll be more impressive this week. Coldest low with the 2017 event was just 32…although we pulled off a sub 40 high which probably won’t happen with this one. 

[RentonHill]

It’s like that parks n Rec scene where he’s like “stop pooping” but it’s “stop snowing”

[snow_wizard]

The EPS agrees with a block blowing up around day 10.  Certainly a window of opportunity there.

[Requiem]

So where does that magic two inches or so of snow on the EURO come from for PDX? 

[TacomaWx]

The webcam for enumclaw looks kinda grainy but based on the temps being 32-33 looks like it’s snowing there. Looks like snow on under the streetlights.