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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Interesting, I didn’t realize that! I know places south of Lynnwood had some icing with massive icing the further south (and east I think) you got. We stayed all snow at my old location west of Smokey Point. 

I was surprised he got ice rather than snow. Many areas got a decent snowfall with the storm. He is usually more likely to get snow. It was a strange storm.

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8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

wind kept us from bottoming out.  got down to 23 at the house.  was suppose to drop to 15.  Maybe tonight will be less windy and we can plummet

Felts Field dropped down to 18. The current dp is 21. The NWS has fog in the forecast. You'll likely be colder tomorrow morning.

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2 hours ago, MossMan said:

I remember one fairly quick icing event in my area and that might have been it! Couldn’t remember how regional it was. For some reason my weather memory between 2000 and 2005 is not there. 

Haha, you're not missing much!!

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hey all. Wow it’s been a ride. Long story short, last week I had a bad reaction to a medication and nearly died. I just got out of the hospital a few days ago. Not 100% back yet, but am grateful to still be here after a stretch of bad luck so prolific it almost has to be scripted by the cosmos. 😆

Love all u crazies. Grateful to be given another chance to track what should be an endless barrage of blizzards and arctic fronts this winter.

Sorry for the stretch of luck and glad to see you still kicking. You're back just in time for the Nov 1985's younger less potent brother to kick in.

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Doesn't look like we'll have a day at or above a high of 38-40 degrees in the next ten days.

I'm going to an Idaho Vandals game on Saturday. While I think football was meant to be played outside, I am so glad it will be inside this week. That's why we try to go to early season Cougars games.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 2 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 1 inch: Nov 1

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: .20 on 12/4/22

Days with any snow: 11/1/22, 11/28/22, 12/01/22 (trace), 12/02/22 (Trace)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 13F (11/29/2022)

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27 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Unlike the GFS and GEM, the 12z Euro is nowhere near a cold outcome for us. Just a big fat ridge.

And that's what will happen, I'd bet me left shoe, maybe my right one too

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1668859200-gRQt2fiLGd8.png

I don't know, there is potential here and all 3 models show basically the same strong ridge going into AK.  Lots to get down in the details but the overall pattern of strong ridge and almost a N S shot right from the Arctic to NW is present.  It could be but could also be amazing.

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Interesting, I didn’t realize that! I know places south of Lynnwood had some icing with massive icing the further south (and east I think) you got. We stayed all snow at my old location west of Smokey Point. 

I remember 2012 and 1996(?).

In 2012, I was living in Bellevue, just next to the Microsoft campus. We were just on ZR/GR/SN line, with a coworker in Seattle getting snow, DT Bellevue getting graupel, and Renton south getting freezing rain. Bonney Lake was hit hard with nearly every parking lot tree seeing some damage and some stands of cottonwoods getting shredded. My parents lost power for a day and all of the remaing snow had been glazed over.

1996 was the big one, but I can't find much (I'm not looking that hard, so that might be the problem), but I do remember that Bonney Lake had a couple inches of ice, with branches and power lines down everywhere. I think that was the same storm where the Everett marina collapsed.

As for the topography, on a macro scale it could work, at least Tacoma to Stanwood, where marine or continental influence isn't as direct. The valleys though, like the Snohomish, Green River, and Snoqualmie, would get wrecked, and with some of the new transmission lines up since 1996, I'd expect it'd be crippling.

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2012 was a fun one. Was living in West Seattle at the time. The forecast was for a shot of snow then a quick warm-up to mild rain. I woke to rain on the morning of the 12th, but oddly, things didn’t look like they were melting out there. Stepped out the front door and was greeted by still-frigid temperatures and the distinctive sound raindrops make as they freeze on impact.

North of about Downtown Seattle it stayed as snow basically throughout the whole event.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

2012 was a fun one. Was living in West Seattle at the time. The forecast was for a shot of snow then a quick warm-up to mild rain. I woke to rain on the morning of the 12th, but oddly, things didn’t look like they were melting out there. Stepped out the front door and was greeted by still-frigid temperatures and the distinctive sound raindrops make as they freeze on impact.

North of about Downtown Seattle it stayed as snow basically throughout the whole event.

I remember it started drizzling here during the afternoon with a temp in the upper teens and I told my wife this is going to be bad.   Woke up the next morning to no power and what sounded like gunshots outside every few minutes which was branches breaking off the trees in the forest behind our house.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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January 2012 was a really solid event…10.5” of snow that month but the snow depth only got to about 8” at its peak. Then we had 1” of freezing rain fall. This is the only ice storm I’ve seen in my life besides some minor ice accumulation in 2008 IIRC. It was crazy how much ice accumulated on everything and some of the damage to trees in my nieghboorhood is still visible today. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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  • Longtimer

I don’t have many pics from the 2012 event since that was right before I switched to the IPHONE. Had a Samsung that met it’s demise and everything in it. But I do have this pic of my old Jetta! That was a fun week! 

35A1F2AC-BC9C-4EA5-8AFD-8481B252F471.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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10 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I remember posting on The Western Weather Forums back in 2007. I think my screen name was Purcell Trench or something like that. You and I had a bit of a tussle in 2009. I didn't post much after that. I joined the new forum in 2016 as snow drift. I posted here and there. You and I, for whatever reason, have never gotten along. I can't figure out what your problem is. I don't have any problem with you. If I have wronged you in the past, please forgive me. I just want to live at peace with everyone. I think I may mostly lurk from now on. I'll view the site solely for information, because it is such a great resource. I hope you have a great winter and you get a healthy dose of snow and cold. ❄🌬⛄👍

snow drift

You were snow drift? Ah very cool. I hope you don't only lurk I enjoy your participation and model riding too much for that.

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Mostly all gone in the lowlands but the mountains have been spectacular against the blue sky.

Low clouds are blossoming again between Seattle and the coast now... and most of the lowlands will have low clouds tomorrow morning that will be slow to clear.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Low clouds are blossoming again between Seattle and the coast now... and most of the lowlands will have low clouds tomorrow morning that will be slow to clear.

Jim says no low clouds! Can’t mess up his min temps. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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  • Longtimer

Up to 37 degrees. Still lots of frost in the shade. .01” of melted frost on the day. 

3270DD31-CB77-457C-92F7-77619CF70205.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, administrator said:

I remember 2012 and 1996(?).

In 2012, I was living in Bellevue, just next to the Microsoft campus. We were just on ZR/GR/SN line, with a coworker in Seattle getting snow, DT Bellevue getting graupel, and Renton south getting freezing rain. Bonney Lake was hit hard with nearly every parking lot tree seeing some damage and some stands of cottonwoods getting shredded. My parents lost power for a day and all of the remaing snow had been glazed over.

1996 was the big one, but I can't find much (I'm not looking that hard, so that might be the problem), but I do remember that Bonney Lake had a couple inches of ice, with branches and power lines down everywhere. I think that was the same storm where the Everett marina collapsed.

As for the topography, on a macro scale it could work, at least Tacoma to Stanwood, where marine or continental influence isn't as direct. The valleys though, like the Snohomish, Green River, and Snoqualmie, would get wrecked, and with some of the new transmission lines up since 1996, I'd expect it'd be crippling.

Yeah, historically it's just very difficult for places more exposed to the Strait to maintain freezing rain in a warm air advection scenario. Much like with the coastline and Olympic Peninsula, any significant WAA aloft will usually result in a relatively uniform mixing in short enough order (<12 hours) to where significant icing is almost unheard of. So that area from about Mukilteo to Anacortes is usually pretty exempt, at least from I-5 west.

Seattle southward and of course further east of I-5, and obviously Whatcom County north of the Chuckanuts, has enough exposure to low level easterly outflow to where there's much more precedent for at least moderate icing in the right scenario. 

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

 

Like most of these long range models, it’s a cut and paste of what you expect given the ENSO state.  La Niña currently. Have stopped putting much faith in these at this point. 

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1 hour ago, umadbro said:

Anyone else notice weatherbell EURO stopped at hour 144 or is that just me? 12z that is.

No... it finished on time.    Are you looking at 3-hour precip because that only goes out to 144 hours.   1 hour precip goes to 90 hours, 3 hour to 144, and 6 hour to 240.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Up to 37 degrees. Still lots of frost in the shade. .01” of melted frost on the day. 

3270DD31-CB77-457C-92F7-77619CF70205.jpeg

Do you have power yet?

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 2 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 1 inch: Nov 1

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: .20 on 12/4/22

Days with any snow: 11/1/22, 11/28/22, 12/01/22 (trace), 12/02/22 (Trace)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 13F (11/29/2022)

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