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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Cora is upset because she wanted another freeze and nobody mentioned anything about clouds last night messing it up. image.thumb.jpg.63a05e3c0e855520e3dc8902fd075ddd.jpg

Nights like last night make me miss the town in the Rockies where I lived as a teen. Clouds during the cold season would hold lows in the 20’s F, instead of letting them drop into the teens or single digits.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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  • Longtimer
11 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

48/28 day here. Crystal clear all day but low clouds sure rushed in right around sunset. PDX probably won’t even fall below 40 tonight. 

PDX overachieved on the cold side for once and fell to 33. Clouds cleared a bit after midnight. There was more clearing to the west so they actually got colder than me for the first time in recent memory. Low of 34 here, currently 37 and mostly cloudy.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Overall the weather looks kinda splitty and boring the next 7-10 days. Could pull off some modest cold anoms if things line up right. Hopefully the storm train decides to start up the last 1/3 of the month.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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24 degrees outside.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 2 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 1 inch: Nov 1

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: .20 on 12/4/22

Days with any snow: 11/1/22, 11/28/22, 12/01/22 (trace), 12/02/22 (Trace)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 13F (11/29/2022)

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38 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Nights like last night make me miss the town in the Rockies where I lived as a teen. Clouds during the cold season would hold lows in the 20’s F, instead of letting them drop into the teens or single digits.

I sometimes wish that was true here! We still regularly drop below zero even with clouds (like this morning)!

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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54 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Overall the weather looks kinda splitty and boring the next 7-10 days. Could pull off some modest cold anoms if things line up right. Hopefully the storm train decides to start up the last 1/3 of the month.

Hope we don’t go 70 days with no precip. 

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3 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Cora is upset because she wanted another freeze and nobody mentioned anything about clouds last night messing it up. image.thumb.jpg.63a05e3c0e855520e3dc8902fd075ddd.jpg

Hey my daughter is named Cora too. Looks a little older than my girl. 

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 12:58 a.m. PST Thursday 10 November 2022.

Discussion.

The following areas set a daily minimum temperature record on 
November 9, 2022 

Abbotsford Area (Abbotsford A) 
New record of -4.6 
Old record of -4.4 set in 1948 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Blue River Area (Blue River CS) 
New record of -21.0 
Old record of -15.3 set in 1986 
Records in this area have been kept since 1946 

Burns Lake Area (Burns Lake Decker Lake) 
New record of -19.2 
Old record of -19.0 set in 1986 
Records in this area have been kept since 1949 

Clearwater Area (Clearwater Auto) 
New record of -13.6 
Old record of -13.5 set in 1986 
Records in this area have been kept since 1913 

Dawson Creek Area (Dawson Creek A) 
New record of -29.7 
Old record of -28.9 set in 1986 
Records in this area have been kept since 1926 

Mackenzie Area (Mackenzie Airport Auto) 
New record of -26.6 
Old record of -23.0 set in 1986 
Records in this area have been kept since 1971 

Port Hardy Area (Port Hardy A) 
New record of -6.4 
Old record of -3.9 set in 1973 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Puntzi Mountain Area (Puntzi Mountain (AUT)) 
New record of -27.7 
Old record of -20.2 set in 2003 
Records in this area have been kept since 1959 

Salmon Arm Area (Salmon Arm CS) 
New record of -12.0 
Old record of -10.6 set in 1911 
Records in this area have been kept since 1893 

Sechelt Area (Sechelt Aut) 
New record of -3.0 
Old record of -1.8 set in 2012 
Records in this area have been kept since 1956 

Sparwood Area (Sparwood CS) 
New record of -21.4 
Old record of -20.3 set in 1986 
Records in this area have been kept since 1969 

Squamish Area (Squamish Airport) 
New record of -3.8 
Old record of -2.5 set in 1986 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

Whistler Area (Whistler - Nesters) 
New record of -11.3 
Old record of -10.5 set in 1986 
Records in this area have been kept since 1950 
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There has been enough fluctuation at the end of the run, I'll leave it in the realm of possible.  This next week is going to be interesting as all models recently have hinted at a similar solution around day 10.  We'll just have to wait and see

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  • Longtimer

GEM was not bad. 

Looks like EUG hit 26 this morning, 29 at SLE, 33 at PDX. 

It is currently 46 at SLE, but only 38 in the fog here on the south side of town. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

There has been enough fluctuation at the end of the run, I'll leave it in the realm of possible.  This next week is going to be interesting as all models recently have hinted at a similar solution around day 10.  We'll just have to wait and see

Euro just shows the giant ridge drifting east over us with all the Arctic stuff staying the Midwest. Maybe we can at least score some low level cold 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Good news is PDX is running a -3.6 departure month to date. EUG -3.8, SLE -4.4

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Burns, OR hit 1 this morning. Looks like Spokane made it into the teens. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Euro just shows the giant ridge drifting east over us with all the Arctic stuff staying the Midwest. Maybe we can at least score some low level cold 

That def could be the solution.  hoping we see a little more retrograding of that ridge but we'll just have to wait and see.

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  • Longtimer

Euro looks to be deamplifying by day 9. My bet is that once this blocking pattern breaks down we will go into a mild and wet and at times pattern for awhile. Could be enough to offset the cool first half of the month. It’s been about three weeks since we’ve seen any major torching so we’re probably due.

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Euro looks to be deamplifying by day 9. My bet is that once this blocking pattern breaks down we will go into a mild and wet and at times pattern for awhile. Could be enough to offset the cool first half of the month. It’s been about three weeks since we’ve seen any major torching so we’re probably due.

You seem to be really stressed out about all this. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You seem to be really stressed out about all this. 

Nah. Just making predictions. I’ve actually had a surprisingly good track record this year 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nah. Just making predictions. I’ve actually had a surprisingly good track record this year 

Predicting one worst case scenario nightmare after another? :(

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

That def could be the solution.  hoping we see a little more retrograding of that ridge but we'll just have to wait and see.

Whenever there is a ridge over us between November and February there is always retrogression talk 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nah. Just making predictions. I’ve actually had a surprisingly good track record this year 

Embracing the WUFACD method has served you well. You’re welcome.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Predicting one worst case scenario nightmare after another? :(

Mild and wet wouldn’t be all bad. As has been stated, we need the rain. Also, a month that came out close to normal overall would seem pretty chilly compared to July-Oct!

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Embracing the WUFACD method has served you well. You’re welcome.

There were literally no meaningful cool downs between mid July and mid October, so no.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Whenever there is a ridge over us between November and February there is always retrogression talk 

Most of the speculation on this forum in the winter is not realistic. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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We should really make an effort to keep the mood positive as we go into boring phases like this. Painting a bleak picture for real winter wx over the next couple weeks isn't an absurd thing to do right now. I enjoy the optimism and pessimism personally. 

I'm just here hoping the cold air mass bottles up close enough to get one of those big model swings with around 3 days notice. The best winter wx always seems to come with late model shifts triggering outflow. There's a chance! 

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We will be fine.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Winter hasn’t even begun yet. The COLD and SNOW will come!

Yep. I've been all-in since the summer.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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It’s November 10th. We know we won’t see meaningful cold or snow through about Thanksgiving. But that’s true in 90% of Winters.
 

No reason to be worried at this point about much other than the fact we won’t see any more mountain snow through the 20th at least which only leaves a couple weeks to get the bases built up and the ski areas opened up. But they also have more snow than usual from the last couple weeks.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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