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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I get it. The cold season equivalent of our July-October would be November 1985, December 1919, January 1930, February 2019. 

It is what a warming climate looks like. Not an entire absence of cold anomalies but warm anomalies dominating.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just reviewing the ENSO. Everyone keeps wanting to kill off this Nina, but here we are well into November and we still have the ENSO 3.4 region sporting a -1.1C departure. Looks like we stay below -0.5C through the end of January, and are in negative neutral conditions until about April. By summer 2023 a Nino is ramping up. Elephant in the room is that by then we will be coming off our best winter of the Century and due for a a bit of a DUD. 

 

Following up on this... the latest on Ag Weather Update yesterday.

 

 

enso23.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It is what a warming climate looks like. Not an entire absence of cold anomalies but warm anomalies dominating.

I agree. Folks from Seattle-north have been fairly lucky the past few years, the cold anomalies down here have pretty much been limited to February 2019, Fall 2019, and April/May 2022. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Following up on this... the latest on Ag Weather Update yesterday.

 

enso23.png

Straight from the 80s with their tech. But seriously a Nino next winter seems almost a lock. Only thing that could prevent it could potentially be a 2012-13 like head fake. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I get it. The cold season equivalent of our July-October would be November 1985, December 1919, January 1930, February 2019. 

Just gotta roll with it. And really things are as dynamic as they’ve ever been, just along an elevated baseline.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Honestly I feel like being exposed to the weather blogs and all the idealizing of past cold events at a young age kinda ruined me. Sometimes ignorance is bliss...

Okay now we are getting somewhere. This is a safe space today, let it all out...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Honestly I feel like being exposed to the weather blogs and all the idealizing of past cold events at a young age kinda ruined me. Sometimes ignorance is bliss...

My grandpa and his stories were 1000 times worse than any Internet poison.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

You first Andrew.

I was traumatized by December 1996 and January 1998. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was traumatized by December 1996 and January 1998. 

I don't recall 98 but holy the snow that hit 12/26 was ******* epic.  I was taking a break from playing N64 at my buddies watching one of the Tremors sequels when the snow started.  I've never seen such huge flakes in my life before nor since and when going outside to celebrate the snow falling we were pelted by not soft fluffy flakes but almost loose snowballs.  

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

My grandpa and his stories were 1000 times worse than any Internet poison.

My grandpa is the same way but I always took it with more of a grain of salt. Actual dates, stats etc had a more profound affect on me at least. 

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

My grandpa is the same way but I always took it with more of a grain of salt. Actual dates, stats etc had a more profound affect on me at least. 

He was a pre-Internet weather junkie. He actually kept local weather stats out there for WSU for quite a while and did forecasts for the first cable TV company. The stories were fascinatingly detailed.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I don't recall 98 but holy the snow that hit 12/26 was ******* epic.  I was taking a break from playing N64 at my buddies watching one of the Tremors sequels when the snow started.  I've never seen such huge flakes in my life before nor since and when going outside to celebrate the snow falling we were pelted by not soft fluffy flakes but almost loose snowballs.  

Yeah the 50 degree rain was nice. No, we had like 1.5" with some overrunning on the 27th or 29th, it's been a couple decades, I don't remember the exact date. It was fun for a few hours, but pouring rain with temps in the mid-50s by late evening. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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My relatives on my mother's side actually moved from Buffalo, NY to Southern California in the early 1960s to escape the snow (And find better economic opportunities.). But escaping the snow was always part of family lore. A precursor to the Tim's of today. My mother did enjoy snow however, she always said the 2/19/93 event always took her back to her childhood. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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25 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

I vote for that one neutral member.

Hate to see Nina go... I find myself cheering for Nina summers now.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Your location has a pretty ideal climate IMO. 

Extremely jealous of that August average high. Your winter time averages are a couple degrees warmer than here, but you also get arctic air much more frequently than us. 

I think it’s pretty good too. 50” of precip annually and average almost 30” of snow.  Our snow generally sticks around longer than other places, it’s pretty common for it to stick around for 2-3 weeks at a time.  And yes our summers are historically pretty sunny and cool.  We get much fewer marine layer days than places further south but our temps still average out much cooler.  

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Looks like it only got down to 35 at KSEA. North wind has been blowing all morning. It's cold outside!

It should get below freezing tonight, but maybe we'll pull a PDX and stumble at 33 or something silly like that.

2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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PDX is 49. WTF. 42 at SLE, 39 at EUG

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

PDX gonna PDX. Crapshoot whether that station will even record a freeze with this event.

True. A sub-freezing low should be a slam dunk for most valley locales tonight if there is enough clearing. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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24 minutes ago, Timmy said:

gem_z500a_namer_fh210-240.gif

Poor man's version of December 2005. The Alaska block is decent, that energy underneath messes up the base of the block and pushes the bulk of the cold east. Looks like eventually the block is going to be undercut by westerlies, Best case scenario is the anchor high re-establishes over the GOA and merges with the Alaska block and we are in business as a trough carves out down the coast. That won't happen until after Thanksgiving though. 

Worst case scenario is westerlies break through and we get screaming coast to coast zonal flow for 2-3 weeks starting around the 20th. Doesn't really seem like that kind of year though. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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