Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I get it. The cold season equivalent of our July-October would be November 1985, December 1919, January 1930, February 2019. It is what a warming climate looks like. Not an entire absence of cold anomalies but warm anomalies dominating. 3 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Just reviewing the ENSO. Everyone keeps wanting to kill off this Nina, but here we are well into November and we still have the ENSO 3.4 region sporting a -1.1C departure. Looks like we stay below -0.5C through the end of January, and are in negative neutral conditions until about April. By summer 2023 a Nino is ramping up. Elephant in the room is that by then we will be coming off our best winter of the Century and due for a a bit of a DUD. Following up on this... the latest on Ag Weather Update yesterday. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said: It is what a warming climate looks like. Not an entire absence of cold anomalies but warm anomalies dominating. I agree. Folks from Seattle-north have been fairly lucky the past few years, the cold anomalies down here have pretty much been limited to February 2019, Fall 2019, and April/May 2022. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: Following up on this... the latest on Ag Weather Update yesterday. Straight from the 80s with their tech. But seriously a Nino next winter seems almost a lock. Only thing that could prevent it could potentially be a 2012-13 like head fake. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I get it. The cold season equivalent of our July-October would be November 1985, December 1919, January 1930, February 2019. Just gotta roll with it. And really things are as dynamic as they’ve ever been, just along an elevated baseline. Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Is blaming Tonga for stuff still a thing? Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Is blaming Tonga for stuff still a thing? ED issues? 4 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Honestly I feel like being exposed to the weather blogs and all the idealizing of past cold events at a young age kinda ruined me. Sometimes ignorance is bliss... 4 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 16 minutes ago, Olive1010 said: Ohh looks like the storm system for Saturday is dipping south Image please. Your comment is too vague. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Following up on this... the latest on Ag Weather Update yesterday. I vote for that one neutral member. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 East wind no joke been ripping for hours if it decouples we have a chance at some single digits tonight with clearing skies. doubt it though, too windy 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Just now, Cascadia_Wx said: Honestly I feel like being exposed to the weather blogs and all the idealizing of past cold events at a young age kinda ruined me. Sometimes ignorance is bliss... Okay now we are getting somewhere. This is a safe space today, let it all out... 1 2 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Honestly I feel like being exposed to the weather blogs and all the idealizing of past cold events at a young age kinda ruined me. Sometimes ignorance is bliss... My grandpa and his stories were 1000 times worse than any Internet poison. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Okay now we are getting somewhere. This is a safe space today, let it all out... You first Andrew. 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, Deweydog said: ED issues? I'm sorry baby, have you heard of Tonga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Following up on this... the latest on Ag Weather Update yesterday. Just watched this video. They do such an amazing job of explaining what is going on with the model data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Just now, Cascadia_Wx said: You first Andrew. I was traumatized by December 1996 and January 1998. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: All the models I have seen showed the Nina bottoming out in November... which seems to be what is happening. Ninas almost always bottom out in November IIRC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 MJO is forecast to go into phase 7 towards the end of the month and entering Dec. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I was traumatized by December 1996 and January 1998. I don't recall 98 but holy the snow that hit 12/26 was ******* epic. I was taking a break from playing N64 at my buddies watching one of the Tremors sequels when the snow started. I've never seen such huge flakes in my life before nor since and when going outside to celebrate the snow falling we were pelted by not soft fluffy flakes but almost loose snowballs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: My grandpa and his stories were 1000 times worse than any Internet poison. My grandpa is the same way but I always took it with more of a grain of salt. Actual dates, stats etc had a more profound affect on me at least. Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said: My grandpa is the same way but I always took it with more of a grain of salt. Actual dates, stats etc had a more profound affect on me at least. He was a pre-Internet weather junkie. He actually kept local weather stats out there for WSU for quite a while and did forecasts for the first cable TV company. The stories were fascinatingly detailed. 8 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: I don't recall 98 but holy the snow that hit 12/26 was ******* epic. I was taking a break from playing N64 at my buddies watching one of the Tremors sequels when the snow started. I've never seen such huge flakes in my life before nor since and when going outside to celebrate the snow falling we were pelted by not soft fluffy flakes but almost loose snowballs. Yeah the 50 degree rain was nice. No, we had like 1.5" with some overrunning on the 27th or 29th, it's been a couple decades, I don't remember the exact date. It was fun for a few hours, but pouring rain with temps in the mid-50s by late evening. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 My relatives on my mother's side actually moved from Buffalo, NY to Southern California in the early 1960s to escape the snow (And find better economic opportunities.). But escaping the snow was always part of family lore. A precursor to the Tim's of today. My mother did enjoy snow however, she always said the 2/19/93 event always took her back to her childhood. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 25 minutes ago, Randyc321 said: I vote for that one neutral member. Hate to see Nina go... I find myself cheering for Nina summers now. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Your location has a pretty ideal climate IMO. Extremely jealous of that August average high. Your winter time averages are a couple degrees warmer than here, but you also get arctic air much more frequently than us. I think it’s pretty good too. 50” of precip annually and average almost 30” of snow. Our snow generally sticks around longer than other places, it’s pretty common for it to stick around for 2-3 weeks at a time. And yes our summers are historically pretty sunny and cool. We get much fewer marine layer days than places further south but our temps still average out much cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Timmy Posted November 8, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 The gem is going places 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Just saw the forecast low tonight is 23F and I remembered I haven’t turned off the outside water taps. I should do that. 23F would be pretty impressive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seattle Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Looks like it only got down to 35 at KSEA. North wind has been blowing all morning. It's cold outside! It should get below freezing tonight, but maybe we'll pull a PDX and stumble at 33 or something silly like that. 2022-23 Winter: 11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25" 12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace 12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7 1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0" Total: 6.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RentonHill Posted November 8, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 There was 25” when we left Yesterday morning. It got above freezing briefly In the afternoon and probably had some decent compaction. Been lightly snowing all night and today and looks like maybe 6 more inches. Looks like mid February not second week of November. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 Already 48 degrees here which is warmer than its been the past two days. 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 PDX is 49. WTF. 42 at SLE, 39 at EUG 2 1 1 1 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: PDX is 49. WTF. 42 at SLE, 39 at EUG PDX gonna PDX. Crapshoot whether that station will even record a freeze with this event. 2 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: PDX is 49. WTF. 42 at SLE, 39 at EUG Downslope My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: PDX is 49. WTF. 42 at SLE, 39 at EUG Completely fogged in. I can't stand fog. Blech 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: PDX gonna PDX. Crapshoot whether that station will even record a freeze with this event. True. A sub-freezing low should be a slam dunk for most valley locales tonight if there is enough clearing. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Dave said: Completely fogged in. I can't stand fog. Blech Fake cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 8, 2022 Report Share Posted November 8, 2022 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Timmy said: Poor man's version of December 2005. The Alaska block is decent, that energy underneath messes up the base of the block and pushes the bulk of the cold east. Looks like eventually the block is going to be undercut by westerlies, Best case scenario is the anchor high re-establishes over the GOA and merges with the Alaska block and we are in business as a trough carves out down the coast. That won't happen until after Thanksgiving though. Worst case scenario is westerlies break through and we get screaming coast to coast zonal flow for 2-3 weeks starting around the 20th. Doesn't really seem like that kind of year though. Edited November 8, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew 4 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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