November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[T-Town]

Holding at 33 here. Some frost on the roofs.  Alpenglow on the Olympics this morning. 

[MossMan]

24.9

[Meatyorologist]

25 minutes ago, Dave said:

Looks like EUG may have hit 27. 30 at my location. Very frosty out. No fog this morning thankfully.

Sounds like really dry heir. Arctic autflow actually reached yoojeene!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Bottomed out at 26.4. Brrrrr... Heading for the low 40s today. 

[Skagit Weather]

24.6F here. Not too shabby for the second week of November.

[LowerGarfield]

A very cold feeling 28F outside.

[ChrisEl Elyon]

36° right now here in Belltown Seattle area which has also been the low. 30° at BFI 

[MossMan]

9 hours ago, administrator said:

I was just thinking today that it has been a long time since the Puget Sound had an Olympia to Bellingham icing event.

When was the last time? I don’t remember any in my (almost) 46yrs 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

When was the last time? I don’t remember any in my (almost) 46yrs 

I think that was his point and that he was being sarcastic about a clown range model map calling for it.

[FroYoBro]

Had a hard freeze with a low of 28 here. Looks wintery out there with some nice frost. 

[MossMan]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think that was his point and that he was being sarcastic about a clown range model map calling for it.

Would be interesting to know if it has ever happened though and why it is so rare! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, FroYoBro said:

Had a hard freeze with a low of 28 here. Looks wintery out there with some nice frost. 

Thankfully, PDX avoided such carnage and stayed a sane 34˚F overnight.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Would be interesting to know if it has ever happened though and why it is so rare! 

I don't think the local topography allows it. Any ZR event that happens (and they are not common in the Puget Sound Basin), encompasses a far smaller area.

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

When was the last time? I don’t remember any in my (almost) 46yrs 

Probably 1/6/2004 briefly. Although most of the Sound transitioned pretty quickly to rain from ZR outside of the gap wind exposed areas.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Beautiful sunny and frosty morning. Made it down to 28.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Probably 1/6/2004 briefly. Although most of the Sound transitioned pretty quickly to rain from ZR outside of the gap wind exposed areas.

I remember one fairly quick icing event in my area and that might have been it! Couldn’t remember how regional it was. For some reason my weather memory between 2000 and 2005 is not there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[TT-SEA]

Cool satellite image this morning... lots of clear skies and snow in the mountains and also a strip of low clouds pushed up against the foothills which kept it warmer out here.  Low clouds should evaporate quickly this morning.

[GHweatherChris]

23°

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS shows a Seattle snowstorm next Thursday morning...

 

[Doinko]

 

[Doinko]

Cold east wind

 

 

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS shows a Seattle snowstorm next Thursday morning...

 

Looks marginal but then very cold afterwards with arctic air surging through the Gorge and Fraser River valley

[Olive1010]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Cold east wind

 

 

Wtf 15 degrees In pirtland?!?!!!

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Wtf 15 degrees In pirtland?!?!!!

It's probably overdoing the cold air making it here

[Doinko]

GEM is very cold

 

[Olive1010]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

It's probably overdoing the cold air making it here

Yeah probably. But do you think we have a slim chance that might happen? We should probably just keep an eye on it 

[Doinko]

15 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Cold east wind

 

 

Snow down to the Valley too

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Wtf 15 degrees In pirtland?!?!!!

Sure, and on Halloween the GooFuS was saying it would be 17°F at my place this morning. Actual result: 23°F.

It’s the GooFuS modeling a cold spell. Adjust those numbers upwards.

[Olive1010]

Yeah I know.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Sure, and on Halloween the GooFuS was saying it would be 17°F at my place this morning. Actual result: 23°F.

It’s the GooFuS modeling a cold spell. Adjust those numbers upwards.

Or the Nov 1st 00Z run showing a temp of -4 degrees in Portland

[SnarkyGoblin]

Wasn't the new gfs model supposed to be up and running fully by now?  Does weatherbell have it?

It would be nice if these ridiculous snow and cold maps went away for good.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Wasn't the new gfs model supposed to be up and running fully by now?  Does weatherbell have it?

It would be nice if these ridiculous snow and cold maps went away for good.

I think it was supposed to happen in late November.   I don't see it on WB but maybe I missing something because someone said it was available there.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Wasn't the new gfs model supposed to be up and running fully by now?  Does weatherbell have it?

It would be nice if these ridiculous snow and cold maps went away for good.

Ridiculous cold: might get fixed to some degree (probably still will be an issue).

Ridiculous snow maps: little hope. All the models have apparently revised “snow” to mean “precipitation with any dendritic content whatsoever.” So 34°F chunky rain now models as “snow.”

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Ridiculous snow maps: little hope. All the models have apparently revised “snow” to mean “precipitation with any dendritic content whatsoever.” So 34°F chunky rain now models as “snow.”

Really??

Someone posted - don't remember who - a snippet of a professional meteorologist saying that the new model would handle borderline snow events better.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Really??

Someone posted - don't remember who - a snippet of a professional meteorologist saying that the new model would handle borderline snow events better.

Better, as only 2x the actual snow amount instead of 5x or ∞ x it?

[GoldenEars]

Got down to 25 with some thick frost on the blueberry plants.

[Sonny Summers]

58 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I remember one fairly quick icing event in my area and that might have been it! Couldn’t remember how regional it was. For some reason my weather memory between 2000 and 2005 is not there. 

My brother lives in Granite Falls. He had a pretty significant ice storm in January 2012. He had to remove some trees that were permanently damaged. I'm not sure how widespread the ice storm was that year.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Sonny Summers said:

My brother lives in Granite Falls. He had a pretty significant ice storm in January 2012. He had to remove some trees that were permanently damaged. I'm not sure how widespread the ice storm was that year.

That was one of the most widespread and severe ice storms on record in the Seattle area, and it still was of significantly lesser extent than what was on that map.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS shows basically no precipitation for the next 16 days for western WA except for a quick hitting snowstorm next Thursday.   Makes perfect sense... very typical November with lots of sun and an occasional snowfall.