2022 Election Results

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I swear the people who sit out in the cold at these "rallies" and listen to a 75 year old man just rant and rave and scream for hours are truly brainwashed.    I mean good God.   What is entertaining about that??

Same is true about the guys that listen to Ibram X. Kendi's speeches and believe that his ideas are actually helping to improve race relations in this country.

[Reg]

Duopoly versus duopoly. Which set of government-approved beneficiaries of the ruling class will win. I'm on the edge of my seat.

[roadtonowhere08]

Just now, Reg said:

Duopoly versus duopoly. Which set of government-approved beneficiaries of the ruling class will win. I'm on the edge of my seat.

"It's a big club, and you ain't in it!" - George Carlin

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Same is true about the guys that listen to Ibram X. Kendi's speeches and believe that his ideas are actually helping to improve race relations in this country.

Literally no idea who that is.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Literally no idea who that is.  

He's one of the main guys behind critical race theory, defund the police and the woke movement. He says things like capitalism is unavoidably racist and that we must fight past discrimination with present discrimination and present discrimination with future discrimination. He charges large amounts of money for his speeches while condemning the inequalities caused by capitalism. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looking more likely that both Masters and Lake could lose in AZ. Huge blow to Trump considering how much he and his allies propped Lake up to be the 'next big MAGA thing'. Add a Laxalt loss in there (most outstanding votes are in blue Washoe County) paired with a loss for Walker and losing the Senate might hopefully be the nail in the coffin.

The losses just keeping piling up for Trump and with each loss the GOP has slightly more ammo to finally try and move away from him. There's already been signs Murdoch is moving that direction. Obviously his cult-like followers will continue to back him and he definitely won't go into the night quietly but I think we will start to see a more concerted effort to push him out. It'll probably get ugly but it'll be start. 

All good signs for the Republicans for 2024.   Its probably better not to have full control right now.  They can blame the Dems for another 2 years... put Trump in the rear view mirror... and come in with a much better presidential candidate in 2024.

[TT-SEA]

Just checking the updates... and it does seem reasonably possible that the Dems will win the Senate races in AZ and NV.    They might actually increase a Senate majority.    In a mid-term year with a Democrat president and a bad economy.    

[snow_wizard]

34 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looking more likely that both Masters and Lake could lose in AZ. Huge blow to Trump considering how much he and his allies propped Lake up to be the 'next big MAGA thing'. Add a Laxalt loss in there (most outstanding votes are in blue Washoe County) paired with a loss for Walker and losing the Senate might hopefully be the nail in the coffin.

The losses just keeping piling up for Trump and with each loss the GOP has slightly more ammo to finally try and move away from him. There's already been signs Murdoch is moving that direction. Obviously his cult-like followers will continue to back him and he definitely won't go into the night quietly but I think we will start to see a more concerted effort to push him out. It'll probably get ugly but it'll be start. 

This seems like a pretty gloomy projection.  I heard an interview with Lake and she said she's confident the remaining ballots are a high percentage Republican, because many of them are absentee ballots that were hand delivered by people who were worried about something going wrong if they used a drop box for their ballots.  Likely those would be Republican.

I'm all in on the second part of your post.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

House could now go either way. It’s within the margin of error. Epic humiliation for the GOP if it happens.

Quote

On Wednesday, The Washington Post’s election model suggested Republicans were on course for around 225 seats — enough for a majority with some room to spare. But the latest data put that number closer to 220, right on the edge of the 218 seats required. That’s similar to NBC’s model, which says Republicans are favored to get a similar number — 221 seats — plus or minus seven seats. (The plus or minus essentially operates as a margin of error — and the magic number of 218 is within that margin.) [emphasis added]

https://wapo.st/3G7BloN

[snow_wizard]

Republicans up to 211 on called races now.  Gain of 8 seats on races that have been called.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

House could now go either way. It’s within the margin of error. Epic humiliation for the GOP if it happens.

https://wapo.st/3G7BloN

It would be a nightmare for me.  This is why I wasn't going to celebrate until the number reaches 218 on settled races.

[snow_wizard]

How ironic would it be if this comes down to Alaska's one Congressional seat.  Current counting shows the Democrat ahead, but she is well short of 50%.  Sarah Palin and Nick Begich are both Republican and have over 50% combined.  With AK's ranked elections this seat is probably going Republican once they count people's second (and if necessary third choices).

As an interesting aside I think this is the same Nick Begich that used to guest host for Art Bell back in the day.  Coast to Coast AM was very fun listening!

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It would be a nightmare for me.  This is why I wasn't going to celebrate until the number reaches 218 on settled races.

Best case is House goes to Republicans and Senate goes to Dems... good enough to dump Trump while also giving Republicans oversight control.  

And Lake was way over-confident based on the actual data.  I saw that interview.  She was pulling a Trump move.  Vehemently accusing and blaming election officials in case she loses while at the same time prematurely declaring victory.    So transparent and so Trumpian.    

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

It's a gloomy projection because it was a gloomy election for Republicans (minus DeSantis). It's pretty apparent that a good chunk of Independents did not want to vote for so-called 'election deniers' and/or ultra mega MAGA Republicans or whatever stupid name Biden is calling them. Kari Lake was a huge one of those in the primary, from what I've read, and look what happened to Masters who was in that same vein. Not far-fetched Lake loses but we shall see.

I think even the Dems are pretty shocked at how bad the Republicans did.   No one expected this.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I think even the Dems are pretty shocked at how bad the Republicans did.   No one expected this.

I hope Trump is the reason.  The other option is the old guard is dying out and younger woke voters are going to rule who wins now.

[snow_wizard]

16 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Must have slowed down for the night for day 3 of counting. Really California?

They must be looking for more ballots in a trunk of an old car or something.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

There is some credence to this idea. I'm willing to sacrifice the Senate for that path forward but we have to gain control of the House. Contrary to how politics are played nowadays, I don't want to see the country do very poorly under full Democrat rule for another 2 years just so we have a bigger margin in '24. I'd rather have a divided government now that can limit each other's craziness. Assuming we don't run Trump, I still like our chances in two years. 

I can't imagine Trump winning the primary in 2024.  There are many like me who have soured on him.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I hope Trump is the reason.  The other option is the old guard is dying out and younger woke voters are going to rule who wins now.

My wife offered that theory the other day... and she is not political at all.    Just something she was thinking about and it made sense to me.

[TT-SEA]

The other thing to note with a very slim margin in the House is that extreme element of the Republicans are going to hold out to get their demands.   And then a majority turns into nothing.    Kevin McCarthy will be managing a nightmare.  

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My wife offered that theory the other day... and she is not political at all.    Just something she was thinking about and it made sense to me.

That prospect scares me.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That prospect scares me.

Just think about how many old people who voted in 2016 have died in the last 6 years and how many 13 and 14 year-olds in 2016 were voting this time around.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

57 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All good signs for the Republicans for 2024.   Its probably better not to have full control right now.  They can blame the Dems for another 2 years... put Trump in the rear view mirror... and come in with a much better presidential candidate in 2024.

I think 2028 is the earliest the Republicans can hope to win the White House. Trump (and his most fanatical core base) is going to do a lot of damage to the GOP on his way out. Assuming he is on his way out, of course.

[roadtonowhere08]

Based on my observations of statements made from my students, if the youth vote like they talk, the GOP is in big trouble in the near future if they keep up some of their overall unpopular positions.  And I am not in a terribly liberal part of Southern California either.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think 2028 is the earliest the Republicans can hope to win the White House. Trump (and his most fanatical core base) is going to do a lot of damage to the GOP on his way out. Assuming he is on his way out, of course.

After the train wreck known as Joe Biden?  People will want a Republican in 2024.  Obviously if we can't get Trump out of the way that could be a problem.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, roadtonowhere08 said:

Based on my observations of statements made from my students, if the youth vote like they talk, the GOP is in big trouble in the near future if they keep up some of their overall unpopular positions.  And I am not in a terribly liberal part of Southern California either.

The two things that keep me hopeful are Florida and Texas.  They have both taken big steps to the right.  Two huge prizes for the Democrats out of reach for now.    In Florida DeSantis has given them a taste of what conservatism can do if given a chance.

As for the youth....I doubt they like out of control crime and all of the other messes that left wing policies eventually lead to more than anyone else so their minds could change.

[roadtonowhere08]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The two things that keep me hopeful are Florida and Texas.  They have both taken big steps to the right.  Two huge prizes for the Democrats out of reach for now.    In Florida DeSantis has given them a taste of what conservatism can do if given a chance.

As for the youth....I doubt they like out of control crime and all of the other messes that left wing policies eventually lead to more than anyone else so their minds could change.

Time will tell for better or worse.  If TikTok is any indication, we are all screwed.

[snow_wizard]

OR-5 is looking pretty solid.  Most of the counting is done and the Republican is ahead by over 2%.  I still say 95% the Republicans will take the House.

[Deweydog]

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I can't imagine Trump winning the primary in 2024.  There are many like me who have soured on him.

Seriously? He’s weathered way too many storms to be this myopic about his influence. In theory, Trump should have been rendered completely irrelevant and into strictly sideshow status in early 2021, if not late 2020. He ran an awful campaign and pissed away what should have been a chip shot if he'd been even a decent crisis President. Then he went completely off the rails, and yet here he is still the most relevant and feared person in the GOP. Politics are dumb.

 

[Andie]

They’re still counting out in Arizona.  
Why can’t they run an election?   
Kari Lake is still in the running. She’s only about 1000 votes off. 
There’s got to be that many in someone’s lost and found!  
 

Why can’t States count faster and accurately?

[Minny_Weather]

11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I can't imagine Trump winning the primary in 2024.  There are many like me who have soured on him.

I can see it. There are plenty of cultists who are still loyal to him. At this point, I think the only Republican who has any chance of beating him in a primary is DeSantis, simply because there are plenty of people out there like you and I who liked what Trump did as president but don't exactly want a senile loose cannon in charge anymore.

[Minny_Weather]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

They’re still counting out in Arizona.  
Why can’t they run an election?   
Kari Lake is still in the running. She’s only about 1000 votes off. 
There’s got to be that many in someone’s lost and found!  
 

Why can’t States count faster and accurately?

2nd straight election that Arizona and Nevada have sh!t the bed.

[SnarkyGoblin]

A lot of you seem to be minimizing the effects on the overturning of Roe.

Trump is an easy scapegoat but policies/opinions that actually affect voters matter.

Legislating is not all about tax cuts.

[snow_wizard]

56 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

A lot of you seem to be minimizing the effects on the overturning of Roe.

Trump is an easy scapegoat but policies/opinions that actually affect voters matter.

Legislating is not all about tax cuts.

It just blows my mind that killing babies is so important to so many people.  If you strip away all of the flowery language that's exactly what it is.  Sad.

[snow_wizard]

4 hours ago, Andie said:

They’re still counting out in Arizona.  
Why can’t they run an election?   
Kari Lake is still in the running. She’s only about 1000 votes off. 
There’s got to be that many in someone’s lost and found!  
 

Why can’t States count faster and accurately?

I was going to say the West is an absolute embarrassment.  Almost every district east of the Rockies was done long ago.

This is the kind of stuff that makes me worry the left is trying to find a way to cheat.  I'll never forget the governor's race in WA a while back where the Republican won the first count, then a recount, and then they magically found a box of ballots in a parking garage in Seattle.  Care to guess which party those ballots favored?  I have never trusted the Dems since.

[snow_wizard]

On the issue of abortion...I would be willing to go for some reasonable compromises.  I wish the left would feel the same way.  

[snow_wizard]

Just imagine how the rest of the world views us when we still don't have a decision on the balancer of power several days after an election.  Flat out embarrassing.

In better news for Republicans...OR-5 looks very likely to go R for another flipped seat.  There are also two races east of the Rockies that are almost done counting with Republicans ahead.  That will take us to 214 with several Republican leaning undecided races in the West.  In AK it looks Sarah Palin has a good chance of winning that seat when that state's convoluted process finally runs its course.  I'm not going to pop a champagne cork until the official number reaches 218.

[Iceresistance]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just imagine how the rest of the world views us when we still don't have a decision on the balancer of power several days after an election.  Flat out embarrassing.

In better news for Republicans...OR-5 looks very likely to go R for another flipped seat.  There are also two races east of the Rockies that are almost done counting with Republicans ahead.  That will take us to 214 with several Republican leaning undecided races in the West.  In AK it looks Sarah Palin has a good chance of winning that seat when that state's convoluted process finally runs its course.  I'm not going to pop a champagne cork until the official number reaches 218.

In AK-AL (At Large), Petola is likely sweating hard because she does not have 50% of the vote to dodge the runoff and win the election!

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

In AK-AL (At Large), Petola is likely sweating hard because she does not have 50% of the vote to dodge the runoff and win the election!

My understanding is they don't have a runoff.  In AK they vote for their first, choice, second choice, third choice, etc.  If the first count (which only counts people's number one choice) doesn't yield a winner with 50% then they add people's second choice on the next count.  Talk about convoluted and time consuming!

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Kelly officially beats Masters in AZ Senate race, per Cook Political Report.

I had given up on that one already.

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

My understanding is they don't have a runoff.  In AK they vote for their first, choice, second choice, third choice, etc.  If the first count (which only counts people's number one choice) doesn't yield a winner with 50% then they add people's second choice on the next count.  Talk about convoluted and time consuming!

Yep, I wished they do what Georgia did: If the highest voter does not get 50% in a three-way race or more, then the 1st and 2nd place candidate will advance into a runoff.