luvssnow_spokane Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 00z is a nice reality check. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 http://www.sherv.net/cm/emoticons/fighting/setting-himself-on-fire.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Still probably a Columbia Basin cold pool and big east winds under this inversion ridge. I'm confident this is an outlier, and no, that isn't me just wishcasting...... GFS is the only model that has been showing the Aleutian ridge with less amplitude. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Who's this Hannah E. Attard??? Let's take her out back and beat the daylights out of her!!!Hey, don't shoot the messenger! Take your beef to the man upstairs. He's a cold, twisted fellow. In reality I think the PV was always bound to strengthen as the bihemispheric wavedrive reverses, which'll eventually shove the vortex onto our side of the pole. In the process we lose the WAFz fluxes which allows it to strengthen. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Could be a +PNA warning for the main shitty event in January. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 This'll be a solid run for Fred and myself, though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Backdoor cold shot/possible modified blast by day 10-11..... better than nothing. If the block retrogrades just slightly we'll be in the freezer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Crap. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png I dunno, the record low run wasn't doing us much good to this point. Let's mix it up! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 After viewing the 0Z turd I'll deflect your disappointment with the news that I've recorded 10.14" of precipitation so far this month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Boydo on Marks blog just posted a link about how the pv is going nowhere but to weaken. Maybe you should read that Phil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I dunno, the record low run wasn't doing us much good to this point. Let's mix it up!Yeah, the location of the vortex and best wave driving has been on the wrong side of the globe. Hopefully we'll get the PV onto our side of the pole, then blast it to pieces in January (the latter of which I think is more likely than not during the second half of winter). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It's 10 days away. I haven't jumped on neither the bandwagon, the wishcasting train, nor the winter cancel party. Like I said tonight, the trend we've been seeing is nice(in the 6-10 day period), but we have a long, long ways to go before this is a realistic possibility. Okay, maybe I've been on one of the smaller Fisher Price type trains(for toddlers), but not yet on the full blown grown up wishcasting train. 00z ECMWF in 52 minutes!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It's the GFS...when will we learn that the model to be trusted is the EURO?Looks nothing like the GEM/ECMWF, Ensembles, or Composite analogs.... Outlier. We shall bow to King EURO in 1 hour 8 minutesThe GFS is really struggling with this upcoming pattern change. It's a very slow learner but give it time and it will finally learn. Yeah, the EURO will show why it's the KING tonight! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It certainly turns D**n cold after day 10 Gorge east and very strong east winds into PDX...... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It certainly turns D**n cold after day 10 Gorge east and very strong east winds into PDX......Just 10 days away... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 WOW..... that amplitude on 00z GEM at day 8. If the offshore ridge retrogrades this is going to be a cold run! Edit: Block might be a tad too far west. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 WOW..... that amplitude on 00z GEM at day 8. If the offshore ridge retrogrades this is going to be a cold run!Ends pretty similar to the 12z. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 0z GEM day 9LOOK at this amplitude!!! http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112600/222/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 0z GEM Day 10 ... Perfect http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112600/240/500h_anom.na.png http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112600/240/850th_nb.na.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Ends pretty similar to the 12z.Yep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Day 8-14 composite analogs. Low correlation score, but hey 2008!!! Quite a few cold years http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 0z ECMWFBegins in.... 16 minutesHoping we see similar 500mb progression as previous runs/GEM solutions and timing moved ahead. We do not want to see any reverting or drifting towards the GFS. I want to see less amplitude of offshore ridge and a strongly amplified Aleutian ridge/with kona/anchor low H/L Rex. Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold front Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Dec. 1972 there again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Crossing my fingers for a good 0z ECMWF run, and toes, and the very rare, yet ever popular finger/toe crossing combo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Now we get to weed out the weenies. Anyone who didn't expect a few "bad" runs between now and the time-frame we are watching must not follow the models much in the winter months or doesn't want to focus on reality. The fact we have such good agreement among GFS, ECMWF, GEM, etc. should be even more of a clue that the other shoe has to drop at some point. Models always flip-flop before a major pattern change. Only time will tell which solution ends up right. Until then, expect more of the same roller-coaster for the next week or so. As well as more weenies saying, "I knew this would happen! Always does! #Wintercancel".Exactly. It's like I said the other night. We usually see far more flopping than flipping, or a combination of flopping, flipping compared to flippity, floppy, flopping, and definitely it's far more often to see flop, flopping, floppity flips, floppity, flopping where the cold air slides east than anything at all. Ultimately I want to see less flopping, flipping, floppity, flopping, than just straight up floppy, flopped, flopping. In 2008 we saw I believe flipping, flippity, flipping, flips, flippered, flippety consistently with maybe 1 or 2 runs featuring a mix of flip, flippity, floppity flops, then reverting back to pure flip, flippity, flipping which ended up just magical for all of us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 00z Ensembles notably worse. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 The operational is pretty much in line with the ensembles for the most part. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I'm having her take back the long johns.LOL ! :lol: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 00z Ensembles notably worse.Fairly similar to previous. Still plenty of -5c or colder members. Certainly nothing great. http://i.imgur.com/yEL9pl8.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Teleconnection Indices forecast -PNA, -EPO tanking as we head into December. Looks great. http://i.imgur.com/iNVfer3.pngThis not mean anything Phil? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Jeez. it's as quiet as a fart in church in here now....... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 0z ECMWF - 500mb Day 3 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_4.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Looks the same as the 12Z. Slightly further East. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 As of now the 0z GFS is an outlier showing the blocking so far east. Even at that it gets cold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It's amazing how much more consistent the Euro is than the GFS...it latched onto this idea 3-4 days ago for the Nov. 29 time period. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Jeez. it's as quiet as a fart in church in here now.......It's like watching a team that's had no recent success fumbling the ball within their own 40. There's still 3 min left on the clock but a big stop is needed to overcome the 7 point deficit. Can we win? The die hards say yes while the others are leaving the building. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It's like watching a team that's had no recent success fumbling the ball within their own 40. There's still 3 min left on the clock but a big stop is needed to overcome the 7 point deficitWhat the hell? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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