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November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Gradient Keeper

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Who's this Hannah E. Attard???

 

Let's take her out back and beat the daylights out of her!!!

Hey, don't shoot the messenger! Take your beef to the man upstairs. He's a cold, twisted fellow.

 

In reality I think the PV was always bound to strengthen as the bihemispheric wavedrive reverses, which'll eventually shove the vortex onto our side of the pole. In the process we lose the WAFz fluxes which allows it to strengthen.

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I dunno, the record low run wasn't doing us much good to this point. Let's mix it up!

Yeah, the location of the vortex and best wave driving has been on the wrong side of the globe. Hopefully we'll get the PV onto our side of the pole, then blast it to pieces in January (the latter of which I think is more likely than not during the second half of winter).

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It's 10 days away. I haven't jumped on neither the bandwagon, the wishcasting train, nor the winter cancel party. Like I said tonight, the trend we've been seeing is nice(in the 6-10 day period), but we have a long, long ways to go before this is a realistic possibility.

 

Okay, maybe I've been on one of the smaller Fisher Price type trains(for toddlers), but not yet on the full blown grown up wishcasting train.

 

00z ECMWF in 52 minutes!!!!

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It's the GFS...when will we learn that the model to be trusted is the EURO?

Looks nothing like the GEM/ECMWF, Ensembles, or Composite analogs.... Outlier. We shall bow to King EURO in 1 hour 8 minutes

The GFS is really struggling with this upcoming pattern change. It's a very slow learner but give it time and it will finally learn. Yeah, the EURO will show why it's the KING tonight!

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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0z ECMWF

Begins in.... 16 minutes
Hoping we see similar 500mb progression as previous runs/GEM solutions and timing moved ahead. We do not want to see any reverting or drifting towards the GFS. I want to see less amplitude of offshore ridge and a strongly amplified Aleutian ridge/with kona/anchor low H/L Rex.
 
Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)
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Now we get to weed out the weenies. Anyone who didn't expect a few "bad" runs between now and the time-frame we are watching must not follow the models much in the winter months or doesn't want to focus on reality. The fact we have such good agreement among GFS, ECMWF, GEM, etc. should be even more of a clue that the other shoe has to drop at some point.

 

Models always flip-flop before a major pattern change. Only time will tell which solution ends up right. Until then, expect more of the same roller-coaster for the next week or so. As well as more weenies saying, "I knew this would happen! Always does! #Wintercancel".

Exactly. It's like I said the other night. We usually see far more flopping than flipping, or a combination of flopping, flipping compared to flippity, floppy, flopping, and definitely it's far more often to see flop, flopping, floppity flips, floppity, flopping where the cold air slides east than anything at all. Ultimately I want to see less flopping, flipping, floppity, flopping, than just straight up floppy, flopped, flopping. In 2008 we saw I believe flipping, flippity, flipping, flips, flippered, flippety consistently with maybe 1 or 2 runs featuring a mix of flip, flippity, floppity flops, then reverting back to pure flip, flippity, flipping which ended up just magical for all of us.

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00z Ensembles notably worse.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The operational is pretty much in line with the ensembles for the most part. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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As of now the 0z GFS is an outlier showing the blocking so far east. Even at that it gets cold.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Jeez. it's as quiet as a fart in church in here now.......

It's like watching a team that's had no recent success fumbling the ball within their own 40. There's still 3 min left on the clock but a big stop is needed to overcome the 7 point deficit.

 

Can we win? The die hards say yes while the others are leaving the building.

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