Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It's like watching a team that's had no recent success fumbling the ball within their own 40. There's still 3 min left on the clock but a big stop is needed to overcome the 7 point deficitThe GFS is the Mark Sanchez of models. The "Butt Fumble" of models. http://cdn.inquisitr.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Mark-Sanchez-Jameis-Winston.jpg 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Its raining!!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Winter cancel? So quick to pull the winter cancel card, with a week left in November. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Day 5 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_6.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_6.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Looks like PDX snuck down into the 40's this evening. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 So quick to pull the winter cancel card, with a week left in November. Tim, you can never pull the winter cancel card to early. Mark Nelsen is somewhere this evening polishing his fork. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It is getting even quieter in here... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Day 7 offshore ridge suppressed a bit and Aleutian ridge stronger. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_8.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Looks loads better than the GFS. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Looks loads better than the GFS.Unquestionably Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Day 8 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Day 8 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112600/192/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Watch it pump up a huge ridge just inland with raging SW flow into the PNW. Black Friday beatings? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Black Friday beatings? Black and Blue Friday. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Day 8 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112600/192/500h_anom.na.png This is going to end well. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Of all the posts you respond to, you have to respond to that one, psychopath.: / Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 This is going to end well.We're definitely getting good at predicting prediction models. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Euro is looking okay. Everyone take one step back away from the winter cancel fork. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Don't we all wish the EURO went to 384 hours like the GFS! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Euro is looking okay. Everyone take one step back away from the winter cancel fork. My heart is pounding! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Dec. 1972 there again. Are you thinking of a Dec 1972 repeat? That was mighty cold, more so than 2013. More prolonged and a bit colder as well on a few of the days. Within a 3 year period it would be really surprising to have another super cold December. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 That is one strong, robust ridge at day 9. The GFS ridge is downright flaccid in comparison. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 6z in 2 hours 33 minutes!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Looking good... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Day 10 is beautiful. Guys and girls we still have the euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Wow. 1057mb Arctic High in Yukon. Major upper level support Day 9-10 Bitter air sliding south quickly into BC/AB http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_T850_ak_11.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Looking good... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primetime Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Days 9-10 on Euro looks like a money setup for lowland snow, right? Not my area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Nice to see timing moved ahead some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Raining pretty heavy here. WRF shows close to 1" by morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Nice to see timing moved ahead some. Now we just have to get the CFS back on board. How is that JMA looking. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_T850_nwus_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Now we just have to get the CFS back on board. How is that JMA looking. and the 4z Mongolian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Day 10 is beautiful. Guys and girls we still have the euro.We still have 10 days out too. Progressing nicely. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Tremendous set-up on the EURO. It can't get much better than this. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112600/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It's really interesting watching the Northern Hemisphere pattern unfold on the Euro. The PV briefly consolidates over the Arctic days 5-7, then gets split apart days 8-10, with large chunks of very cold air going into both Asia and western North America. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 To give you an idea how much progression we've see the past 24hrs which really proves nothing more than timing is moving ahead as it should. I would love to see that continue, and it should tomorrow. Day 10 last night's 00zhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112500/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_11.png Tonight's 00zhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I see even faster progression of the Aleutian ridge at days 6-7.. Really do not want to see timing slow down or things pushed back. At this time I have no reason to think that it will, but it's still possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Days 9-10 on Euro looks like a money setup for lowland snow, right? Not my area Yeah it doesn't get much better than this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It really is a thing of beauty when the forecast model progresses exactly how ya want it to. The emotional tides have begun! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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