Jesse Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Nice to see the improvement on the Euro! The 00z GFS was ok but comparatively uninspiring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Now we just have to get the CFS back on board. How is that JMA looking. I found a site that has the JMA to day 8 and it looks fine there. I thought somebody posted an image from that model 10 days out yesterday. Can't seem to find that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 One thing that gives me some confidence in this thing working out is the amount of anomalous surface high pressure being shown over an ENORMOUS area as we get into week two. A lot to work with to say the least. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I found a site that has the JMA to day 8 and it looks fine there. I thought somebody posted an image from that model 10 days out yesterday. Can't seem to find that. Only day 8, and only runs 12z updates, but looks good http://i.imgur.com/t1m8NCO.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Looks like a little storm pulling together off the coast. The GFS shows it splitting in an unusual way with an area of heavier precipitation hitting southern BC tonight and another darting down into California. It seems nearly the entirety of California will get in on this rain; this year has been a nice turn around from the last several years down there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I found a site that has the JMA to day 8 and it looks fine there. I thought somebody posted an image from that model 10 days out yesterday. Can't seem to find that. That was me. The 12z JMA runs out to Day 10, the 00z, 06z and 18z only run out to Day 3. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=jma 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I think there's a reasonable chance the trough around day 7 might dig back a little putting cold air in eastern Washington/Columbia Basin. The GEM suggested this possibility too. It would be nice to see a chilly/warning shot before the goods arrive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 6z through day 10 better than 00z, but not ideal. The ridge was amplified a bit more. There is a healthy Rex Block, but it's just a bit too far east. Timing did move forward. It did feature a nice backdoor cold shot/modified blast into eastern WA, Columbia Basin and it was very close to a massive blast. Studying the past few GFS runs from HR 102-144 I see the key differences compared to the GEM/ECMWF and thus why we're seeing disagreement, lack of continuity. The ridge moving off Asia with the GFS is further south, amplification takes longer to occur/delayed, and energy moving off Kamchatka into the Aleutians is stronger. Overall however the 500mb pattern is really not that different and offers incredible potential. The possibilities are there for a long duration cold spell. Onto the 12z !!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 CPC Northern Hemisphere Blocking Forecast Days 10-14 This looks pretty good. Might want the block just a tad further west, and the arctic trough to continue to dig further southwest, but not complaining. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/forecast_3_nh.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 6z GFS Day 8-14 Composite Analog JACKPOT! Now we're talking! The #1 Analog match is 2008! Correlation score is improving now just under 92%. A lot of cold years showing up. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs814.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 No changes or improvements on 6z Ensembles. Not surprised. 500mb positive anomaly remains where we want it though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 From Michael Ventrice: Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 12 hours ago East Patchogue, NY Does this count as a strong stratospheric polar vortex even though it's displaced off the North Pole? -80 degree temps http://i.imgur.com/1DU5z4d.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 6z GFS Day 8-14 Composite Analog JACKPOT! Now we're talking! The #1 Analog match is 2008! Correlation score is improving now just under 92%. A lot of cold years showing up. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs814.gifWow! That definitely means the GFS should trend better and look more like the EURO/GEM/JMA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Continue to be uninspired by the GFS Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Wet snow falling down to sea level along east Vancouver island this morning. Nanaimo and north right now. Looks like I may see a change over as cool air is moving south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Hour 384 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 You've got agreement from pretty much every model right now on a major arctic wave for the second and possibly third weeks of December. At least there's a clear signal for a complete reversal. Finally. And at the perfect time Looking more and more like December may be our month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Continue to be uninspired by the GFS 06Z is very decent in the fantasy range. It does seem to have a very complicated pattern around hour 200 or so. The model seems to have issues resolving the complexity of the pattern in the north Pacific, hence its flip flopping. A lot going on there and fairly typical during such a dramatic polar transition. I wouldn't count the GFS out though, it's not a bad model and I've seen it lead the way many times on a pattern I was rooting against. But, given the Euro is showing a pattern that seems more typical, I'd put more weight in it. I just wish the Canadian model wasn't in its camp... it has been terrible this year. It was doing so well after the upgrade in 2013... such a shame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Wet snow falling down to sea level along east Vancouver island this morning. Nanaimo and north right now. Looks like I may see a change over as cool air is moving south. My wife woke me up, I thought she was just bugging me but nope. Currently sitting @ 33F 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Jim, January could still be good, even following a great December. January analogs following cold Decembers: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 My wife woke me up, I thought she was just bugging me but nope. Currently sitting @ 33F CyMeqv-UUAAbtr8.jpg large.jpg Wow! That is amazing. Not even close here... its 49 now. And its not raining either. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primetime Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Euro Ensemble 5 day avg for days 10-15. For a 5 day average, this is a strong signal for the big Bering Sea ridge http://i64.tinypic.com/2mg5nx2.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 From Michael Ventrice: Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 12 hours ago East Patchogue, NY Does this count as a strong stratospheric polar vortex even though it's displaced off the North Pole? -80 degree temps http://i.imgur.com/1DU5z4d.jpg Yup, also per Michael Ventrice. GARGANTUAN BLOCK is going to set up shop in the North Pacific at the 11-15 day time frame! Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice"Big N Pacific block setting up in 11-15d. This is the start of something new and is reason why w Canada goes cold" http://i.imgur.com/pzV35jP.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/o45yLmI.jpg https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/802500491510837248 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Winter Storm watch posted for the Oregon Cascades. 4-9" of snow tonight. 8-16" tomorrow night into Monday! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Good to see some of our Canadian friends getting a little snow. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 The forum is about to get quite busy I have a feeling...weenies and all!!! Oh and we are slowly drowning up here again. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 12z GFS running! Similar to previous runs. Looking for less amplitude of offshore ridge, improved amplification of Aleutian ridge with kona/anchor low for H/L Rex block. We definitely want to see timing moved ahead too. Remember, just because we've seen a really good trend with models/ensembles(Especially GEM/ECMWF) we still have a very long ways to go before this starts look like a real possibility. Think SNOW!!!! Keep the dream alive!Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=471North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 The forum is about to get quite busy I have a feeling...weenies and all!!! Oh and we are slowly drowning up here again. It's so bizarre how little rain we have had compared to you the last few days. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 No changes or improvements on 6z Ensembles. Not surprised. 500mb positive anomaly remains where we want it though. The 6z ensemble was colder than the 0z for Seattle at least. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It's so bizarre how little rain we have had compared to you the last few days.1.57" overnight here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Very impressive cold front draped across extreme SW BC this morning. Currently 54 in Bellingham and mid to upper 30s just NW of there. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 1.57" overnight here. Wow. What are you up to on the month. I had over 17" in October. 9.66" here in November, average for November here is about 10.5" Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Day 5 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112612/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_21.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112612/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Day 5 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112612/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_21.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112612/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_21.png I noticed on the better GFS runs those Aluetian lows were a lot weaker. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I love how gradual the decent into colder weather has been. Normally things that take their time end up being better in the long run. It will be interesting to see whether the GFS or ECMWF end up being right about the pattern progression in early December. Both get very good, but the GFS just takes longer. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 To hour 144, it looks....SLIGHTLY better than the 06z. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I love how gradual the decent into colder weather has been. Normally things that take their time end up being better in the long run. It will be interesting to see whether the GFS or ECMWF end up being right about the pattern progression in early December. Both get very good, but the GFS just takes longer. We really haven't descended into colder weather at all...This is going to be a top warm November with no real below average weather in the next 5-6 days. Today will be another day of significant warm anomalies. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Day 7 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112612/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_29.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112612/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_29.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 We really haven't descended into colder weather at all...This is going to be a top warm November with no real below average weather in the next 5-6 days. Today will be another day of significant warm anomalies.Yup Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Wow. What are you up to on the month. I had over 17" in October. 9.66" here in November, average for November here is about 10.5"9.5" for November which is pretty close to average, maybe just slightly above. Nearly 13" in October was almost 3x the normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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