November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A slight improvement through hour 210, but not much. 

[Jesse]

We really haven't descended into colder weather at all...This is going to be a top warm November with no real below average weather in the next 5-6 days. Today will be another day of significant warm anomalies.

Someone woke up on the realistic side of the bed this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well some good news...The 12z GFS is evolving much more favorably at hour 222...

[ShawniganLake]

Well some good news...The 12z GFS is evolving much more favorably at hour 222...

blocking looks much sharper.  Cutting well up into western Alaska.  looks good

[stuffradio]

I got over an inch of rain in my rain gauge right now since yesterday when I emptied the rain gauge. I have at least 12.41" of rain this month now.

[chopper 918]

Always at day 10 with the GFS. Smh.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 .... Block tilting nicely. Shortwave digging down BC Coast

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112612/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_41.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112612/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_41.png

[Heavy Snow]

The GFS was late to join the party but it finally has.

[snow_wizard]

We really haven't descended into colder weather at all...This is going to be a top warm November with no real below average weather in the next 5-6 days. Today will be another day of significant warm anomalies.

We actually have if you look at a graph of this month. I'm also referring to the cold front currently slowly dropping in from the NW. Pretty chilly just NW Bellingham.

 

You also have to look at what's been going on in the mountains as compared to earlier in the month.

[Timmy]

Always at day 10 with the GFS. Smh.

Only 10 days away!

[snow_wizard]

I continue to be intrigued by the log jam of surface high pressure systems being depicted by the models. Potential for a long lasting mega block.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z is decent, but the timing keeps getting pushed back and through hour 300 most of the real cold air slides well east. Massive improvement though. 

[Deweydog]

Jackprot!

[snow_wizard]

Holy mother of God. This is looking epic to me. I like how the block becomes even more robust after day 10 at the 500mb level.

[snow_wizard]

12z is decent, but the timing keeps getting pushed back and through hour 300 most of the real cold air slides well east. Massive improvement though.

I totally disagree...except for your last statement.

[Heavy Snow]

Holy mother of God. This is looking epic to me. I like how the block becomes even more robust after day 10 at the 500mb level.

January 1950 type Block setting up.

[ShawniganLake]

12Z Canadian looks acceptable to me. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Holy mother of God. This is looking epic to me. I like how the block becomes even more robust after day 10 at the 500mb level.

dry... 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM is awesome. Arctic air mass dropping south-southwest day 9-10

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016112612/gem_T850_nwus_41.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well that was disappointing. 

[snow_wizard]

dry...

Not even worth worrying about at this point.

[Timmy]

Well that was disappointing.

You will have to be more specific

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GEM is awesome. Arctic air mass dropping south-southwest day 9-10

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016112612/gem_T850_nwus_41.png

 

Yeah the GEM is really nice!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You will have to be more specific

 

The 12z GFS is REALLY close, but it just doesn't quite get there. Worlds better than the last couple runs though. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I continue to see the same differences with the GFS vs GEM/ECMWF. High pressure moving off Asia with the GFS is further south and amplification of the Aleutian ridge takes longer. 12z GEM is far more amplified and it occurs sooner. I think the GFS MIGHT be trending towards the GEM/ECMWF. Overall on the 12z GFS today the potential for a super-block long duration cold spell is tremendous.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z GFS is REALLY close, but it just doesn't quite get there. Worlds better than the last couple runs though.

Highly unlikely progression in the 11 to 15 day period. Almost impossible I would say.

[snow_wizard]

I continue to see the same differences with the GFS vs GEM/ECMWF. High pressure moving off Asia with the GFS is further south and amplification takes longer. 12z GEM is far more amplified and it occurs sooner. I think the GFS MIGHT be trending towards the GEM/ECMWF. Overall on the 12z GFS today the potential for a super-block long duration cold spell is tremendous.

I usually figure if two of the big three are on board the third is full of .

[luvssnow_spokane]

Not even worth worrying about at this point.

Agreed! But if we end up without snow OR only Oregon only gets hammered then I will fricken go absolutely ape and then start throwing my .... so watch out!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM Day 7 ..... Progression is exactly like previous runs/ECMWF. Look how much dramatically better this run is than the 12z GFS. High pressure moving off Asia is further north and amplifies much more quickly than the Flaming Turd aka GFS.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112612/168/500h_anom.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Highly unlikely progression in the 11 to 15 day period. Almost impossible I would say.

 

Any progression that screws us out of winter goodness is more likely than not. 

[catnip]

Agreed! But if we end up without snow OR only Oregon only gets hammered then I will fricken go absolutely ape s**t and then start throwing my s**t .... so watch out!

Didn't someone on here once try to build their own snow maker during a dry cold spell?

 

There is always that route!

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I usually figure if two of the big three are on board the third is full of s**t.

Kinda like our windstorm event? Where all the models agreed we would get hammered with major wind --  and they nailed it!  <_ not i actually like to see model consistency too but can even count how many times we have seen up days out less and then one changes its tune the rest follow end screwed. am saying this will happen necessarily... just keeping it real.>

[luvssnow_spokane]

Didn't someone on here once try to build their own snow maker during a dry cold spell?

 

There is always that route!

 

Hell no!!!   I am not that desperate

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM day 8 our offshore ridge backs off and merges with Aleutian ridge. What a thing of beauty.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112612/192/500h_anom.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like that the GEM isn't pushing the timing back either. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

 

12z GEM day 8 our offshore ridge backs off and merges with Aleutian ridge. What a thing of beauty.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112612/192/500h_anom.na.png

 

NICE!!

[ShawniganLake]

My wife woke me up, I thought she was just bugging me but nope. Currently sitting @ 33F

 

CyMeqv-UUAAbtr8.jpg large.jpg

Warning Shot...................Get your shovels ready

[Gradient Keeper]

By the way, and I'm sure you all knew this. The Canadian is superior to the GFS it consistency has a higher score skill level than it does and often rivals the ECMWF.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

By the way, and I'm sure you all knew this. The Canadian is superior to the GFS it consistency has a higher score skill level than it does and often rivals the ECMWF.

 

Why is America always last? Thank God we are going to start winning again. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM Day 9 ... Maybe nudge the block a bit further east, but not complaining. Timing has definitely moved ahead.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112612/216/500h_anom.na.png