November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 180

 

Block much stronger than previous runs. Not even close far more organized too.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112700/180/500h_anom.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All eyes on the Canadian. 

[FroYoBro]

I hope our friend up in Juneau can survive all the cold air coming his way.

 

What's the temperature at your house? 

[Phil]

What does that mean Phil?

Stronger upstream blocking, deeper western trough..risk is that everything ends up too far west but if not..boom.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What's the temperature at your house? 

 

38

[Gradient Keeper]

Timing has sped up this run. 516 thickness approaching southern BC day 8. Got 2 of my predictions right so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through hour 186 the timing has moved up a bit too...Never a bad thing. 

[Phil]

Oh boy. Break out the vodka for this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

#Just2008Thingsseattlesnow.png

 

Fun

[seattleweatherguy]

Oh boy. Break out the vodka for this run.

That only for sore throats

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8-9

SNOW PDX SCORE!!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.png

[Heavy Snow]

GFS Alert! The trend is our friend!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice to see the timing move up. A lot of 18z ensembles were a little quicker. 

[HighlandExperience]

That only for sore throats

 

Whiskey mixed with southern comfort. 

[Phil]

Nearly perfect synchronization between waves. This run is a pants tent.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Day 8-9

SNOW PDX SCORE!!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.png

 

The snow starts about hour 195 on the 00z vs. Hour 228 on the 18z. So about a day sooner. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8-9 510 thickness moving into southern BC

[Heavy Snow]

Day 8-9

SNOW PDX SCORE!!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Day 8-9

SNOW PDX SCORE!!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.png

 

Compare to 18z

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_35.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

As usual I am in the no snow screw zone on that ... LOL thank god at this point it is meaningless... 

[Phil]

Now a third anticyclonic breaker following in perfect sequence after the first two cycled beautifully. Hard to get much better than this.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 Ridge tilts PERFECTLY

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112700/216/500h_anom.na.png

[Timmy Supercell]

This is the slowest case of cooling I've seen in a snow event in Klamath. When it started 4 hours ago, 39 degrees. Still feels "warm" outside now and it just doesn't feel like it should be snowing. If this was Portland it'd definitely be rain.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The snow starts about hour 195 on the 00z vs. Hour 228 on the 18z. So about a day sooner. 

Not for the swamp....  LOL!!  

[Heavy Snow]

As usual I am in the no snow screw zone on that ... LOL thank god at this point it is meaningless...

Yeah the key right now is getting the Arctic Front across the Canada-US border through Washington and Oregon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is the slowest case of cooling I've seen in a snow event in Klamath. When it started 4 hours ago, 39 degrees. Still feels "warm" outside now and it just doesn't feel like it should be snowing. If this was Portland it'd definitely be rain.

 

The airport was still reporting rain at last hour. Good thing you are on a hill. 

[Timmy]

Now a third anticyclonic breaker following in perfect sequence after the first two cycled beautifully. Hard to get much better than this.

I don't know what you are saying, but it sounds good!

[Gradient Keeper]

As soon as I saw the ridge was a bit more amplified at HR 108.... then became a strong block at day 7 I knew this was going to be great. Timing moved ahead around 36 hours this run !!!!

[Phil]

Where the heck is Jim?

[Deweydog]

Where the heck is Jim?

He's in January.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 way ahead of previous runs that showed a blast

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_T850_nwus_41.png

[seattleweatherguy]

That snow map shows snow for seattle area too

[van city]

Where the heck is Jim?

Doing the snow dance outside.

[Trainwreck]

I don't know what you are saying, but it sounds good!

A little more in laymans terms please Phil.

[FroYoBro]

I like snow. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Where the heck is Jim?

Dancing outside in pure exuberance! I got a pic of him... The Man is going ape crazy!!

 

 

[FroYoBro]

That snow map shows snow for seattle area too

It shows everywhere getting snow with the arctic front. Pretty epic run. 

[Phil]

A little more in laymans terms please Phil.

December 2008.

[Trainwreck]

He's in January.

 

Man, that's funny

[MossMan]

I like snow.

Snow good!!