November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

December 2008.

Only snowier!!!

[Jesse]

A little more in laymans terms please Phil.

I thought pants-tent was delightfully layman.

[Heavy Snow]

December 2008.

SCORE!

[Timmy Supercell]

The airport was still reporting rain at last hour. Good thing you are on a hill. 

 

And interestingly enough, I'd wager I'm slightly warmer than 36 with moderate flakes coming down here.

[Phil]

Only snowier!!!

Zing.

[MossMan]

Man, that's funny

Yeah I chuckled when I read that...my wife gave me her usual odd look.

In other news it's down to 41 degrees and still raining.

[Sometimesdylan]

I hope our friend up in Juneau can survive all the cold air coming his way.

Haha we will see...

My trucks heater died 2 winters ago... trying to graduate before I get it fixed/get a new trick...it's an old truck so I can't track the part down. time to keep the puffy coat in the truck.

 

Just said truck like a million times lmao

[SilverFallsAndrew]

D**n coastal snow event...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_45.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. Long lasting blast and several BC sliders too... could be amazing

[Phil]

Almost too much PV/+AO in the clown range, but otherwise the tropical/subtropical progression is absolutely perfect.

[Timmy]

D**n coastal snow event...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_45.png

If it were a fish I'd throw it back

[FroYoBro]

D**n coastal snow event...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_45.png

I think this low will be stronger than anticipated. Pdx gets 4 inches on 12/9. Lock it in now. 

[Sometimesdylan]

The mountains of SE AK are about to get plastered with snow!! Bring it on

[Gradient Keeper]

I expect Ensemble improvement

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The mountains of SE AK are about to get plastered with snow!! Bring it on

 

Glacier building!

[Deweydog]

I think this low will be stronger than anticipated. Pdx gets 4 inches on 12/9. Lock it in now.

I concur. My dad's birthday!

[HighlandExperience]

Glacier building!

 

Seattle after December 

 

http://seattlemammoth.org/img/seattle_ice.png

[snow_wizard]

Two very cold runs in a row.  Looks promising.  One thing I will say is Fraser River blasts usually bring snow for Seattle.  It will be quite some tie before we even need to worry about pinning down who will get snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah let's just pretend like the Candian didn't happen okay?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016112700/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_40.png

[Timmy]

Now onto the ensemble letdown! It was as hell of a run! Would be a lot of low snow levels leading up to an arctic blast.

[Bryant]

A little more in laymans terms please Phil.

A "wave break" is the blocking ridge in the pacific

[Heavy Snow]

Massive snowstorm at Day 13.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112700/336/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112700/336/prateptype_cat.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good run overall. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM block is too far west and cold air slower to spill southward.

[Deweydog]

Clearly the GFS is handling this the best.

 

This morning's post should be deleted.

[snow_wizard]

AMAZINGLY THE GFS SHOWS AN IMMINENT RELOAD AT THE VERY END.  THAT COMING AFTER WE'VE ALREADY BEEN COLD for a week.  Sorry about the caps.

[seattleweatherguy]

Two very cold runs in a row.  Looks promising.  One thing I will say is Fraser River blasts usually bring snow for Seattle.  It will be quite some tie before we even need to worry about pinning down who will get snow.

 

I will get studs on my car if we can confirm it

[snow_wizard]

Massive snowstorm at Day 13.

 

 

 

The positive anom center is in the absolute perfect spot.  Right where it was during the all time great events.

[seattleweatherguy]

AMAZINGLY THE GFS SHOWS AN IMMINENT RELOAD AT THE VERY END.  THAT COMING AFTER WE'VE ALREADY BEEN COLD for a week.  Sorry about the caps.

Its exciting. You got every right.

[snow_wizard]

I will get studs on my car if we can confirm it

 

Don't do it yet!!!!!

[Cold front]

I'll get a snow blower, if it helps

[Cold front]

Dec.9th, my birthday. My last great white birthday was 1972. Best cold snap and even about 3 inches of snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The superior Candanian gives me pause

 

Praying for an epic euro

[Gradient Keeper]

Whoops. Fell asleep..........

 

00z GFS Day 6-10/8-14 day Composite Analog

 

Yes please

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[James Jones]

AMAZINGLY THE GFS SHOWS AN IMMINENT RELOAD AT THE VERY END.  THAT COMING AFTER WE'VE ALREADY BEEN COLD for a week.  Sorry about the caps.

Would you still be bummed about a torchy January if this thing verified? 

[Timmy Supercell]

Now starting to stick. With more abundant flakes and they are larger, maybe the size of nickels/quarters now.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

Begins in.... 7 minutes

 

Want to see timing moved ahead. Don't want to see the block too far west(or east I suppose) Want to see arctic air moving into southern BC by day 8-9.

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112612&fh=24

[catnip]

^^^^^ LMAO

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles
Portland, Seattle, Vancouver BC

 

Well, I expected improvement, and we definitely have that. A few more steps in the right direction. Nice!

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Vancouver, BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[Bryant]

Whoops. Fell asleep..........

 

00z GFS Day 6-10/8-14 day Composite Analog

 

Yes please

 

Probably shouldn't post these, they're worthless according to some people