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November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Gradient Keeper

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Hey look. The Canadian is better than the GFS now!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016113000/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016113000/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_35.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Mind you their precip types are probably off by quite a bit.

 

Stop with the negativity!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Clown Range!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_51.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I will give the clown range GFS one thing: lately it has been fairly consistent in showing the possibility for snow/cold again around the 15th.

Early December was always a tease/warmup IMO. I like the Holidays (mid/late December into early January) more, before a hiatus thereafter followed by an even bigger event in February.

 

Gotta love -ENSO/+QBO climo.

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00z GEM - lock it in.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016113000/gem_asnow_nwus_40.png

Even though this is barely in the realm of possibility of believable range, I still think it holds a shred of validity considering current model trends. I'm optimistic. 

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Early December was always a tease/warmup IMO. I like the Holidays (mid/late December into early January) more, before a hiatus thereafter followed by an even bigger event in February.

 

Gotta love -ENSO/+QBO climo.

Let's get the sub-40 highs out of the system early so it can torch from mid Dec through mid Feb before the spring graupel shower season begins.

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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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00z GEFS 850mb temp anomaly a bit colder than 18z. Surface temp anomaly might be the slightest bit colder. 500mb anomaly shows our ridge breaking down and new Aleutian ridge as seen becomes a dominant block which is much healthier, stronger than previous runs.. Some hints that block might be further east towards 160 W.

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Looking like a theme of recurring cold showing up on the models now.  Could be a series of cold snaps which will ultimately culminate in the big one.  Very different progression than what we've seen in quite some time.

 

FWIW the CFS is going bananas with the cold lately.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Is February one of the strongest signals you have seen for the PNW in a while?

Strongest since at least 2013/14, yeah.

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Awwwww s***, snow wiz is in the mix! I'm genuinely curious as to what his synopsis is of the current model trends. 

 

I think we have a realistic shot at coldest winter of the century so far.  That's not saying all that much, but I'm really liking the progression.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Let's get the sub-40 highs out of the system early so it can torch from mid Dec through mid Feb before the spring graupel shower season begins.

Lol.

 

If that happens I bet Jim finally packs it up and moves east.

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