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November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Gradient Keeper

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I didn't see anyone create a topic thread for November, so I took it upon myself.

A cold, snowy, bitter, icy, freezing, numbing November on the way!

..or just ridgy with building inversions.
....maybe some rain.
......maybe a few clouds.
........wind storm?
..........maybe an AR event or two.
............flooding?

 

One thing is for sure, a lot of excitement, enthusiasm, and possible disappointments are on the way!

 

Here we go!

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Looks like it is going to be (ANOTHER) warm month!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I'm sure the models will be dangling some at points. :)

 

Goodness I hope so. Maybe we can get a nice DJF streak of cold months going. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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If the massive warmth the models have been advertising materializes a short cold snap wouldn't surprise me later in the month.  A strong MJO wave is about to emerge and that could easily throw up a quick block over the GOA.  Overall the month should be warm though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Some would say we are due for massive torching after just a modest torch in October!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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For the record I think it is way to early to be worried

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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For the record I think it is way to early to be worried

 

 

I agree with this... many years in our history were warm well into November and even December and showed no sign of crashing but they did.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some would say we are due for massive torching after just a modest torch in October!

 

To be fair October wasn't really a torch.  The extreme cloudiness of the month is the main reason it ended up above normal due to lack of radiational cooling.  The 850mb temps were actually below normal.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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For the record I think it is way to early to be worried

 

Why should be worried?  Warm Novembers are historically a good sign for winter.  A short cold snap would be nice to see though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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To be fair October wasn't really a torch.  The extreme cloudiness of the month is the main reason it ended up above normal due to lack of radiational cooling.  The 850mb temps were actually below normal.

 

I would say that most Octobers that end up warmer than normal are probably fairly cloudy.    And October is a pretty cloudy month normally... its baked into the averages.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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As we close October on this Halloween night and head into November, I can't be anymore happy with what the newest edition of the 00z GFS shows. It looks promising in the long range as a Block starts to form in Southern Alaska. What I think will happen going forward is Blocking starting to appear around the middle of November. Initially it will be too far East but as we head into December it should retrograde West and amplify even more giving us a better chance of getting an Arctic Blast here in the PNW. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/LY7gfRh.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/LdqcEqP.png

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Just for fun...

 

DEN just had a very dry Sep/Oct combo, recording only .33" of precip the two months (average is 2.32"). I decided to look at all years that were very dry in Sep/Oct, drawing the line at .80".

 

Here's those years: 2010, 2003, 1992, 1983, 1980, 1977, 1975, 1964, 1962, 1956, 1953, 1952, and 1948. Common theme for most those winters was a lot of blockiness, and most had at least one major blast.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Just for fun...

 

DEN just had a very dry Sep/Oct combo, recording only .33" of precip the two months (average is 2.32"). I decided to look at all years that were very dry in Sep/Oct, drawing the line at .80".

 

Here's those years: 2010, 2003, 1992, 1983, 1980, 1977, 1975, 1964, 1962, 1956, 1953, 1952, and 1948. Common theme for most those winters was a lot of blockiness, and most had at least one major blast.

 

The thing that's amazing to me is all of these extreme anomalies happening everywhere and if you roll the years forward they are almost all good.  Same thing with years that were extremely dry in SE AK and the years that were extremely wet here.  I'll bet some years had all three places make the list.

 

Another notable anomaly is the strong positive height anomaly over the GOA Jun - Sep and even parts of this month.  Very good signal for a cold winter there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11:52 PM Radar Update

It's STILL raining in Seattle

http://i.imgur.com/onxOFv6.jpg

 

 

Yeah... completely parked over us as usual.

 

Been a little ridiculous.  

 

But its been wetter than normal here for years now.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Meanwhile the PDX radar is showing...Ummm yeah....Time for a dry spell.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I ended up with a ridiculous 10.33" of rain for October.  Not sure where all of the rain came from to finish out the month.  Way wetter than it was supposed to be.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I know it's the CFS and it's way out in the long range but wow if this verifies.  :o

 

 

That's the magic setup.  That would be both cold and snowy.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

Why should be worried?  Warm Novembers are historically a good sign for winter.  A short cold snap would be nice to see though.

 

Or the winter doesn't pan out and we missed out on even November. There are other ways at looking at this November. January could be a total dud. I don't think it's fair to naysay anyone worried about November being very warm just because you are certain warm November = epic January. Warm Novembers have lead to some terrible Januarys for the region before. I personally am rooting for cold and snow AS SOON AS IT CAN.

 

Until then, I've got my eye on December...

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You'd think this was a moderate Nino looking at this map:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016110106/264/850t_anom.na.png

 

What a mess. If I were to extrapolate this out to FCST HR 2460 it shows a Winter Cancel. Thankfully this is only FCST HR 264, so we're good. Plenty of time to turn things around. Yeah, that's sarcasm. The good thing is the CFS flip-flops more than flip-flops. I just made that up literally right now.

 

12z GFS in 3 hours 8 minutes!

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