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November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Gradient Keeper

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1983/84 and 1995/96 analogs continue to run wild in winter outlooks.

 

ECMWF really hammering teleconnections for December. Coast to coast would get blasted with arctic air.

 

One fairly reputable eastern met is big on the 1950/51 analog.

Yea. Bastardi was big on the 50-51 analog.
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That recent geomagnetic storm is getting some attention now in the scientific community, given the unexpected flip in the NAO forecasts in addition to the observed increase in the rate of O^3 photodissociation. Not exactly a good thing, but likely temporary if the solar wind doesn't remain elevated in this manner for a prolonged period of time.

 

Got some good auroras out of that one. Saw more Auroras this fall than I've seen in the last couple years in Juneau. Helps when it's so clear out a lot of the time!

"There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku

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Got some good auroras out of that one. Saw more Auroras this fall than I've seen in the last couple years in Juneau. Helps when it's so clear out a lot of the time!

Yeah, it was a strong geomagnetic storm. It's no coincidence that modeling tends to swing wildly after these events, sometimes within just 4-5 days.

 

In this case, the strong polar blocking that was being modeled has largely vanished from most guidance, and when looking at the stratospheric temperatures, the impact is obvious. Lots of O^3 was destroyed, hence the cooling. Hopefully temporary.

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Here's 2016 so far, with model forecasts. Similar. Can also see last winter's raging PV on there, which was a major player in the nationwide warmth (in addition to the super niño/+PNA).

 

Looks like we'll be challenging 2009's record in regards to the zonal winds.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/77343D54-42D1-4E84-A937-7FF4360227F5_zpsnaqidzcg.jpeg

Interesting. 

 

I'm assuming 60* North zonal winds have a pretty strong correlation to the strength of the PV?

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Looks like we may be setting up for:

 

1st half November = nationwide torch

End of November = transition period, highly variable

Early December = arctic air floods nationwide

.... arctic air just missing us and sliding into eastern Washington giving us a dry glancing blow as we watch everyone else get hammered... Just so we can hold out until January for Snowiz ;)

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Yeah, it was a strong geomagnetic storm. It's no coincidence that modeling tends to swing wildly after these events, sometimes within just 4-5 days.

 

In this case, the strong polar blocking that was being modeled has largely vanished from most guidance, and when looking at the stratospheric temperatures, the impact is obvious. Lots of O^3 was destroyed, hence the cooling. Hopefully temporary.

Thanks for the explanation. It's nice reading here and getting a well rounded series of replies. So cool having people here talking about what is happening at the surface, or at 500mb, or... way higher than that. 

 

 

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"There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku

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.... arctic air just missing us and sliding into eastern Washington giving us a dry glancing blow as we watch everyone else get hammered... Just so we can hold out until January for Snowiz ;)

 

Sadly I could see this happening. Florida with 12+ inches, while Seattle basks in cold dry air or 33 degree rain in Bonney Lake =)

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Interesting.

 

I'm assuming 60* North zonal winds have a pretty strong inverse correlation to the strength of the PV?

Weak zonal winds @ 60N are associated with weak PV, while stronger zonal winds are associated with a stronger PV.

 

Think of the PV as a giant chemical tornado, extending from the tropopause into the mesosphere, with "multiple vortices" that extend into the polar troposphere in a coupled manner. That's the most simplistic way I can think to describe it.

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Weak zonal winds @ 60N are associated with weak PV, while stronger zonal winds are associated with a stronger PV.

 

Think of the PV as a giant chemical tornado, extending from the tropopause into the mesosphere, with "multiple vortices" that extend into the polar troposphere in a coupled manner. That's the most simplistic way I can think to describe it.

Exactly what I meant but was typing quickly. Not an inverse relationship but a positive one.

 

I certainly wouldn't complain about a weak PV continuing into the Winter.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Good job WRF... once again proving your model superiority.    Its dumping rain here now.      ECMWF just absolutely owns the WRF on surface details.

 

pcp3_15_0000.gif

 

ATX_0_2.png

 

 

At least the 12Z ECMWF said it would be raining this evening.

 

ecmwf_slp_precip_seattle_4.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Quite the drought in SE US. I recall Fall 2007 having a bad drought there and the SE ridge was pretty persistent all winter. I wonder if there is a correlation.

Honestly, despite being a torch, I'd take that winter again just because of how dynamic it was here. So many terrific windstorms, including a gust to 78mph in March, which is the highest I've ever measured in a winter event.

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New ECMWF weekly control run depicts four separate Arctic outbreaks from late November into mid December. Fits with the earlier depiction from the ECMWF seasonal, with the big EPO/AO blocks in December.

4 for the nation as a whole, or directed into any particular region?

Into the PNW.

That would be epic.

 

Everything is coming together now. Our long journey is about a month away now, maybe even sooner. December 2008 was special but IMHO I believe this December can be even better.

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I am going to echo SnowWiz here and say I hope we have a solid December and epic January!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I am going to echo SnowWiz here and say I hope we have a solid December and epic January!

 

Good to know!  

 

I thought you were hoping for torching through March and then lots of wet snow in April.   I will update my chart.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm about ready to be done with the rain for a while.  The past week has been nothing but one over achieving rain event after another.  It's been fun trying to get a few last outdoor projects done with it being nearly dark when I get home from work and endless rain.  I think the payoff for this will be good though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I am going to echo SnowWiz here and say I hope we have a solid December and epic January!

 

That is how many of our best winters go.  A minor to moderate event or two in December and then the mother lode Jan / early Feb.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Good to know!  

 

I thought you were hoping for torching through March and then lots of wet snow in April.   I will update my chart.   

 

The CFS tonight leaves much to be desired.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I'm about ready to be done with the rain for a while.  The past week has been nothing but one over achieving rain event after another.  It's been fun trying to get a few last outdoor projects done with it being nearly dark when I get home from work and endless rain.  I think the payoff for this will be good though.

 

Thursday and Friday look great in the afternoon... wet weekend though.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Good job WRF... once again proving your model superiority.    Its dumping rain here now.      ECMWF just absolutely owns the WRF on surface details.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/pcp3.15.0000.gif

 

ATX_0_2.png

 

 

At least the 12Z ECMWF said it would be raining this evening.

 

ecmwf_slp_precip_seattle_4.png

 

Over 0.3" already here in Victoria, the bands seem to be targeting the Saanich Peninsula this evening; leaching all the nutrients from the load of soil I just had delivered.

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Over 0.3" already here in Victoria, the bands seem to be targeting the Saanich Peninsula this evening; leaching all the nutrients from the load of soil I just had delivered.

 

 

Crap... did not host WRF image and now it updated and shows tomorrow morning and looks better in context.

 

I updated my original post now.   Here was the 12Z WRF image for this evening.   ECMWF was much better as usual.  

 

 

pcp3_15_0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Is the record low for today's date in Seattle really 0 degrees in 1939? That seems really early for temps like that.

I don't think so. Wasn't the 0 back in Jan 1950 as an all time low?

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Is the record low for today's date in Seattle really 0 degrees in 1939? That seems really early for temps like that.

Their all-time record low is 0 in January 1950, though there may have been a colder reading in the 19th century (wxstatman or Snow Wizard would know). The record low for today is 27.

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Good thing it sucks! :lol:

I don't even know why money is wasted on that model...completely worthless with its Wild changes from day to day!
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Their all-time record low is 0 in January 1950, though there may have been a colder reading in the 19th century (wxstatman or Snow Wizard would know). The record low for today is 27.

 

As far as I know, there is no official record from the city of Seattle colder than the 0 in 1950. The city records only go back to 1894, I believe.

 

Of course, nearby areas have gotten colder. Kent reached -10 in 1950, as did Bothell. 

A forum for the end of the world.

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As far as I know, there is no official record from the city of Seattle colder than the 0 in 1950. The city records only go back to 1894, I believe.

 

Of course, nearby areas have gotten colder. Kent reached -10 in 1950, as did Bothell. 

 

I have seen a number something like -6 for Seattle in 1861-62.  Far from official data though.  The P-I  paper mentioned it dropped below zero in North Seattle in Jan 1893.

 

BTW there are some semi official records for Seattle for part of 1890 through 1893 which I have.  It dropped to 3 in the city in 1893.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

I don't even know why money is wasted on that model...completely worthless with its Wild changes from day to day!

 

You have to use an average of many runs with that model.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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