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November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Gradient Keeper

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Their all-time record low is 0 in January 1950, though there may have been a colder reading in the 19th century (wxstatman or Snow Wizard would know). The record low for today is 27.

Ah Komo 4 just updated their site with a record low of 30 in 2003. Earlier today they had 0 in1939 as the record low today but it must have been a typo.

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As far as I know, there is no official record from the city of Seattle colder than the 0 in 1950. The city records only go back to 1894, I believe.

 

Of course, nearby areas have gotten colder. Kent reached -10 in 1950, as did Bothell. 

Yeah, I've only seen records back to 1894. I thought there might have been some older readings not easily available online or something.

 

The GFS is showing SW flow as far as the eye can see... ugh. At least we'll get some drier and sunnier weather out of it. Hopefully Jim's warm November = epic January theory comes true.

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As far as I know, there is no official record from the city of Seattle colder than the 0 in 1950. The city records only go back to 1894, I believe.

 

Of course, nearby areas have gotten colder. Kent reached -10 in 1950, as did Bothell.

Woodland Park unofficially hit -5 on 1/31/1893. That is the coldest Seattle temp that I know of.

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+1.4F at Abbotsford.

 

I find the BLI number surprising.

 

I'm betting it was due to strong S to SE wind episodes.  That seems to torch them much worse than northern Whatcom County or SW BC.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Woodland Park unofficially hit -5 on 1/31/1893. That is the coldest Seattle temp that I know of.

 

I think one of the founding fathers of Seattle recorded that reading and he was noted for being a very precise person.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yeah, I've only seen records back to 1894. I thought there might have been some older readings not easily available online or something.

 

The GFS is showing SW flow as far as the eye can see... ugh. At least we'll get some drier and sunnier weather out of it. Hopefully Jim's warm November = epic January theory comes true.

 

I'm not sure why those 1890 to 1893 records are so hard to come by.  I have managed to piece most of it together from a number of different sources.  Too bad the records began later in 1890 so it doesn't include the amazing Jan - Feb 1890.  I do have the Port Blakely (Bainbridge Island) records for that though.  All in all the 1887 through 1893 was utterly orgasmic for huge winters or at least huge winter months.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GFS tries to flip the PNA after day 10, but ensemble support looks pretty weak.  I'm betting we get another good round of soaking rains this month and probably a windstorm threat or two along with some serious torching at times before we cool off a bit later on.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The sun appears ready to go into a deep sleep.  Very low flux numbers almost no spots and very few flares for a quite a while now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The sun appears ready to go into a deep sleep. Very low flux numbers almost no spots and very few flares for a quite a while now.

Watch the solar wind/geomagnetic indices. At this stage of the solar cycle, that's where the potential for external perturbation will arise from. UV/TSI are already heading down fast.

 

Solar wind lags TSI/radiation fluxes by a few years, and is probably (by far) the most influential factor on weather and climate, even more-so than UV.

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Pretty interesting how few recent years there have been on the CPC analogs lately.  Many of them are pre 1990. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Pretty interesting how few recent years there have been on the CPC analogs lately. Many of them are pre 1990.

That 2001/02 analog freaks me out. So does 1974/75.

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Mark Nelsen just posted a new Fox12 Blog Update giving his latest thoughts on what might, or might not occur this Winter. This one is very detailed and exceptional.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2016/11/01/16248/

This graph depicting decadal snowfall shocks me. I had no idea how bad things have become out there. Almost a 90% decline in decadal snowfall since the 1870s?

 

snow_downtown.jpg

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Great Mark Nelsen blog post this evening. His money is on wet and mountain snow...lol

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2016/11/01/16248/

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Great Mark Nelsen blog post this evening. His money is on wet and mountain snow...lol

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2016/11/01/16248/

 

Didn't see it had already been posted :)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Great Mark Nelsen blog post this evening. His money is on wet and mountain snow...lol

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2016/11/01/16248/

 

Actually the extreme wetness so early in the season argues for a blockier winter IMO.  Pretty unusual to maintain such a wet regime.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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00z ECMWF
A *possible* pattern change by day 9-10 may be emerging, at least on this run. Where the ridge is redeveloping further offshore sure makes me think of blocking perhaps by mid-November. If that comes to fruition then we look for any signs of retrogression.

 

OR, the ridge flattens and a powerful jet stream consolidates slamming into us with renewed rains, possible flooding, and wind storm threats. Either would be better than ridging overhead and building inversions, fog and a stagnant pattern.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110200/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110200/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

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Both were very snowy winters here locally but without much arctic air. I would assume a lack of blocking.

 

If I recall Feb 1975 was quite chilly up your way.  I remember being pretty shocked looking at the Clearbrook records for that month, because it was pretty much nothing down here.  We did have a big snow in Dec 1974 though.  2001-02 was a good winter from Everett northward, but nothing special down here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Nothing too earthshattering.

Nah, but he finally did release somewhat of a Winter 'forecast' I guess. Higher risk of lowland snow/cold, but not a guarantee. I'll take those odds. Better chances of blocking too.

 

This graph depicting decadal snowfall shocks me. I had no idea how bad things have become out there. Almost a 90% decline in decadal snowfall since the 1870s?

 

snow_downtown.jpg

Yeah, it really declined rapidly. The 1980s really sucked.

 

Didn't see it had already been posted :)

No worries.

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The snowfall graphic for Portland is pretty surprising to me.  It shows the 1980s being the lowest decade for snow.  Hard to believe considering how many Arctic blasts there were and how much snow occurred up this way.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This graph depicting decadal snowfall shocks me. I had no idea how bad things have become out there. Almost a 90% decline in decadal snowfall since the 1870s?

 

snow_downtown.jpg

 

A decent chance the 2010s could top the 2000s.  The beginning of an up trend?  No doubt the decline has been shocking.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The snowfall graphic for Portland is pretty surprising to me.  It shows the 1980s being the lowest decade for snow.  Hard to believe considering how many Arctic blasts there were and how much snow occurred up this way.

Downtown Portland has missing data for a lot of months in the 80s. PDX had 40" that decade.

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I was equally surprised by that.

 

I presume they must have counted Jan 1980 as part of the 1970s...1979-80.  But then again that would mean Feb 1990 should have been part of the 80s.  It was MUCH snowier than that up here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The snowfall graphic for Portland is pretty surprising to me.  It shows the 1980s being the lowest decade for snow.  Hard to believe considering how many Arctic blasts there were and how much snow occurred up this way.

 

Most of our snow in the 1980s fell in the first ten days of the decade. It was all downhill after that, though 1984-85 and 1985-86 were good.

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Downtown Portland has missing data for a lot of months in the 80s. PDX had 40" that decade.

 

That sounds more like it.  SEA had 64.5.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Most of our snow in the 1980s fell in the first ten days of the decade. It was all downhill after that, though 1984-85 and 1985-86 were good.

 

Jan 82 and 1988-89 were also good up here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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A decent chance the 2010s could top the 2000s.  The beginning of an up trend?  No doubt the decline has been shocking.

Going by their standard of '09-'10 being part of the 00s, PDX would need to average 7.8" over the next 4 winters to match the 00s for snowfall. We got 45.1" in the 00s and so far have gotten 14.1" this decade.

 

It could happen, but we'd probably need a blockbuster winter to do it.

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Jan 82 and 1988-89 were also good up here.

 

1988-89 was interesting of course. The February 1, 1989 storm only delivered light accumulations to the city of Portland thanks to the raging, 60mph east winds. Places just west, north, and south of the city did fine but the wind just wouldn't allow the snow to settle in town. The March 1, 1989 snowstorm was the opposite and the places that got the east wind received a lot of snow while the folks who didn't get the east wind to surface in time barely had a dusting. Gresham, Troutdale, Camas, and Battle Ground had 8-12" while Hillsboro had maybe an inch.

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Going by their standard of '09-'10 being part of the 00s, PDX would need to average 7.8" over the next 4 winters to match the 00s for snowfall. We got 45.1" in the 00s and so far have gotten 14.1" this decade.

 

It could happen, but we'd probably need a blockbuster winter to do it.

 

Oh...I was just going by the graphic.  It could still happen though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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A decent chance the 2010s could top the 2000s. The beginning of an up trend? No doubt the decline has been shocking.

Hard to find any other locations in the US with a downward trend of that magnitude. I'm not sure if it's just bad luck, or more having to do with the nature of your climate? Either way, yikes.

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Here's some good news. During week 2, the GFS weakens the PV to unprecedented levels (this early in the season), with the OP and many ensemble members depicting full scale wind reversals. This will have consequences long term if it verifies/continues..holy smokes:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

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Hard to find any other locations in the US with a downward trend of that magnitude. I'm not sure if it's just bad luck, or more having to do with the nature of your climate? Either way, yikes.

 

It's mostly the nature of our climate. Too borderline to see a lot of

 

Most of the lowlands today average probably 30-40% of what they averaged in the late 1800s, and maybe 50% of what they averaged in the 1948-80 period. 

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At the rate it's going in about 50 years Portland will see no snow, ever per decade.

 

It would be interesting to see snowfall per decade back that far for further north stations... Bellingham, Vancouver Bc etc... i'm sure Seatac is fairly similar to Portland in terms of snowfall decline.

 

It just doesn't seem like Bellingham has taken nearly as much of a hit. In Seattle's snowiest months like Jan/Feb 1916, Jan 1950, Jan 1969 all gave Seattle way more snow, double in some cases and that is with large amounts. I think BLI had like 30" in Jan 50 where Sea had close to 60".. snow line moves farther north, and over the last few decades BLI has owned SEA on most occasions.

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At the rate it's going in about 50 years Portland will see no snow, ever per decade.

 

It would be interesting to see snowfall per decade back that far for further north stations... Bellingham, Vancouver Bc etc... i'm sure Seatac is fairly similar to Portland in terms of snowfall decline.

 

It just doesn't seem like Bellingham has taken nearly as much of a hit. In Seattle's snowiest months like Jan/Feb 1916, Jan 1950, Jan 1969 all gave Seattle way more snow, double in some cases and that is with large amounts. I think BLI had like 30" in Jan 50 where Sea had close to 60".. snow line moves farther north, and over the last few decades BLI has owned SEA on most occasions.

 

 

Maybe not as much of a hit as Portland/Seattle, but Bellingham is currently averaging maybe 7" per winter for the 2009-present period. Four of the last seven winters have essentially been snowless right in town. That's a huge hit from historic norms and an ugly trend for Whatcom County if it continues much longer.

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