November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Bryant]

Hi Tundra

What about Blizzard?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Day 9-10 North Pacific 500mb pattern

Model comparison 12z *Key features. Ridge/block further offshore, colder air digging into eastern Washington. Aleutian low much further northwest into Bering Sea. Heights rising over southern plains shifting into southeast US.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112212/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_38.png

 

and now 00z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112300/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_36.png

 

Not enough amplification for a true arctic blast. But looks good. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Not enough amplification for a true arctic blast. But looks good. 

Right. Big improvements days 5-10. Several steps in the right direction tonight however.

[The Swamp]

That Bastardi, always preaching the truth!

 

He's an arrogant guy but he knows his stuff.

[Phil]

Clown range might actually try something. Weird looking progression though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Right. Several steps in the right direction tonight however.

 

Yes and then probably cold air settling in at the lower levels. 

[westcoastexpat]

Clown range might actually try something. Weird looking progression though.

 

In hour 384 we trust.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yes and then probably cold air settling in at the lower levels. 

Oh, yeah without a doubt we see a solid backdoor cold shot and perhaps very persistent Columbia Basin cold pool.

[stuffradio]

Clown range might actually try something. Weird looking progression though.

As long as it doesn't run around with a knife or anything.

[Phil]

Doesn't quite get there..Alaskan vorticity about to return as a big anticyclone sets up in the NWPAC. #flatridging

[Gradient Keeper]

Profound improvement on 500mb anomalies

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112300/gfs_z500a_npac_36.png

[Jesse]

No, you miss the point. December is better for many because it's the holiday season. Many of us have the time off work and can actually enjoy the winter feel. It really sets the mood. I couldn't have asked for more in 2008. After December, I was pretty checked out and felt totally satisfied.

 

And honestly, 24.9 in January sounds pretty crappy to me. I'd much rather a warmer month but with lots of snow. Not that interested in extreme cold.

 

I find cold to be kind of boring. I much prefer winter storm tracking. It's a lot more exciting.

These are all nice opinions. People are free to think otherwise too of course. I disagree with every single of of them, for starters.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 300 brings me another shot of snow. lol

[Gradient Keeper]

Pattern still a bit too progressive west of 160 W, but big improvements. Wait until the Pacific shuts down into December. Then we'll be golden. Huge fan of 00z

[GHweatherChris]

No, you miss the point. December is better for many because it's the holiday season. Many of us have the time off work and can actually enjoy the winter feel. It really sets the mood. I couldn't have asked for more in 2008. After December, I was pretty checked out and felt totally satisfied.

 

And honestly, 24.9 in January sounds pretty crappy to me. I'd much rather a warmer month but with lots of snow. Not that interested in extreme cold.

 

I find cold to be kind of boring. I much prefer winter storm tracking. It's a lot more exciting.

Who has more time off in December? Hard working people work the same 12 months a year with maybe holidays off.

[Gradient Keeper]

Onto the 00z ECMWF !!! Begins in 45 minutes

[Phil]

End of this run shows how a broad/flat NPAC anticyclone is the ideal conduit to an Alaskan vortex/+EPO. Any "Pacific shutdown" is a pipe dream under such a scenario.

 

Need to maintain a poleward displacement of mass to shut down the jet/manage a proper -U wind anomaly.

[MossMan]

This would be my first snow of the year...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112300/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_33.png

Am I seeing dark blue over my house? I would be ok with that.

[BLI snowman]

At least looks troughy for the foreseeable future after Thanksgiving. Could certainly be worse.

[Gradient Keeper]

Eager to see the 00z GFS ENS and Day 6-10/8-14 500mb composite analogs

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Am I seeing dark blue over my house? I would be ok with that.

 

I think that is Tim's house

[Heavy Snow]

Possible backdoor modified Arctic Blast on Dec. 3 if the updated run of the 00z GFS verifies.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112300/252/850th.us_nw.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112300/252/sfct.us_nw.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112300/264/sfct.us_nw.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 0.60" of rain on the day. Temp down to 41. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Possible backdoor modified Arctic Blast on Dec. 3 if the updated run of the 00z GFS verifies.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112300/252/850th.us_nw.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112300/252/sfct.us_nw.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112300/264/sfct.us_nw.png

 

Not sure a 37/29 day at PDX qualifies as a blast, maybe more of a "warning shot."

 

I would take that verifying though. It would probably be about a 32/24 day at my location. 

[MossMan]

I think that is Tim's house

Tim's house looks high and dry there!

And it's a stupid green color at my place. Just zoomed in. The iPhone 5c just isn't cutting it anymore as the screen is too small...and I'm turning 40 on Thanksgiving so my eyes are shot.

[Jesse]

Am I seeing dark blue over my house? I would be ok with that.

No you aren't. That dark blue patch is in the Cascades east of Everett.

[Gradient Keeper]

I love that H/L ridge in the long range at 155 W. Weak systems off Asia/Kamchatka and riding western periphery of the block. Noticing throughout the run the offshore ridge as it breaks down and redevelops it does so increasingly further west. Great sign. Also, what looks like a possible typhoon north off Japan looks funky. That will buckle/amplfiy the flow incredibly so. Hmmm.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112300/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_53.png

[Bryant]

Who has more time off in December? Hard working people work the same 12 months a year with maybe holidays off.

Exactly. A day or 2 off doesn't make a difference

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Do something you love you never work a day in your life... So they say...

[stuffradio]

Do something you love you never work a day in your life... So they say...

Watch for snow in the west coast they say...

[GHweatherChris]

Do something you love you never work a day in your life... So they say...

I love what I do, and the hard work it takes.

[Jesse]

I love what I do, and the hard work it takes.

I imagine you puffing your chest when saying this for some reason.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 500mb Composite Analogs
I was awaiting these. Nice improvements here too.

Days 6-10 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif

Days 8-14 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I love what I do, and the hard work it takes.

 

I did landscaping in college. I loved it. If I hadn't graduated around the time the recession hit I might have tried to start my own business. I did house painting too, hated that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jim is going to mention that 1968 warning shot keeps showing up. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I imagine you puffing your chest when saying this for some reason.

LOL so did I.

[Gradient Keeper]

Jim is going to mention that 1968 warning shot keeps showing up. 

If 1968 keeps showing up and the way models might be heading, might, we could end up with a repeat. 1968 part 2, The Revenge of Old Man Winter!

[IbrChris]

No, you miss the point. December is better for many because it's the holiday season. Many of us have the time off work and can actually enjoy the winter feel. It really sets the mood. I couldn't have asked for more in 2008. After December, I was pretty checked out and felt totally satisfied.

 

And honestly, 24.9 in January sounds pretty crappy to me. I'd much rather a warmer month but with lots of snow. Not that interested in extreme cold.

 

I find cold to be kind of boring. I much prefer winter storm tracking. It's a lot more exciting.

There's nothing in the cold department that this climate can deliver, at least in terms of what I experience on a garden variety winter day at my folks' in Idaho. Normal Dec-Jan highs are mid-upper 20s there. 2-3 weeks straight below freezing (highs and lows) is the norm. Most winters bottom out around -20 or -25. It was -17 when I was visiting last January. I mean any given Dec or Jan is much colder than Jan 1950 in western WA/OR. The Jan 1862 mean of 21.3 at Ft Vancouver is a warmish Dec or Jan there.

 

But as far as snow...give me a fun 6-12" storm any day and I will take it over below zero temps which lose their novelty after about 5 minutes.

[GHweatherChris]

I imagine you puffing your chest when saying this for some reason.

It's called pride, and respect for the values I was taught. Laugh all you want.

[GHweatherChris]

I did landscaping in college. I loved it. If I hadn't graduated around the time the recession hit I might have tried to start my own business. I did house painting too, hated that.

Painting anything is horrible, for me, but kudos to those that enjoy it.