November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

It's called pride, and respect for the values I was taught. Laugh all you want.

Will do!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS ENS surface temp anomaly coldest yet, especially Gorge east/Columbia Basin

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Will do!

 

Good lord...

[IbrChris]

Where do they live in Idaho, if you don't mind me asking? My wife and I are seriously considering moving to Idaho in about a year and a half and can't decide if we want to go to the panhandle area or Boise.

About 3 miles south of Rexburg and about a mile north of the Snake River. The elevation there is about 4,860'. Both Boise and the panhandle are much warmer in winter.

 

The 00z GFS would easily give them highs around 20 and lows flirting with zero assuming some clearing.

[MossMan]

Who has more time off in December? Hard working people work the same 12 months a year with maybe holidays off.

I save up a portion of my 5 weeks of vacation each year to take extra time off around the holidays now that I have a wife and daughter. When I was still single and worked as a full time landscaper for a senior community back in 2008 I worked almost every single day from about the 13th thru the end of the year including Christmas doing snow removal. I spent a lot of time in that machine pictured! Was a blast but I would rather relax and truly enjoy it this time! Between tracking 2008 and working 12-16hr days for weeks straight I was quite exhausted by New Years!

[Bryant]

I love what I do, and the hard work it takes.

Mind if I ask what you do for a living?

[GHweatherChris]

Will do!

I know I shouldn't, but I feel sorry for you.

[MossMan]

Good lord...

Not a shocking response from him.

[BLI snowman]

00z GFS 500mb Composite Analogs

I was awaiting these. Nice improvements here too.

 

Days 6-10 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif

Days 8-14 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

Lots of good but not great patterns there that nonetheless managed to produce widespread lowland snowfall. Good trajectory to be heading towards.

[MossMan]

Lots of good but not great patterns there that nonetheless managed to produce widespread lowland snowfall. Good trajectory to be heading towards.

Indeed and what I like is that the models keep slowly improving for the most part.

[Gradient Keeper]

Lots of good but not great patterns there that nonetheless managed to produce widespread lowland snowfall. Good trajectory to be heading towards.

Yep. Move the positive anomaly further N and we're in serious business.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 00z ensembles are not quite as good. The 00z was close to an outlier, but not quite a few members as cold or slightly colder. 

[Phil]

I did landscaping in college. I loved it. If I hadn't graduated around the time the recession hit I might have tried to start my own business. I did house painting too, hated that.

Funny, I currently work for a landscaping/tree care company, and I also love it. Pays my tuition and keeps me in shape.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

Here we gooo! I would love to see some move towards the GFS solution.

 

Feel free to play along

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

[IbrChris]

Interesting. Definitely something to keep in mind. Something we (OK, really just me) want is to have more snow than here, but not frigidly cold day after day. Somewhere right in the middle. I've looked at the Sandpoint area in the panhandle and from what I can see, it gets pretty good snow without being buried/endless cold.

 

Appreciate the insight!

Yeah N Idaho gets some good snow, most areas north of 90 are 5+ feet a winter. Rexburg averages around 55", a half hour north at Ashton the average is 100" due mostly to orographics (Ashton is 5200').

[GHweatherChris]

Mind if I ask what you do for a living?

Well, I started as a install technician for DirecTV 6 years ago, 3 years ago I became a field trainer for them and now I am a manager of Network Services for ATT (who DirecTV is a part of now) with my own team of 16 install technicians that I am in charge of between Long Beach and Port Townsend, nothing better than helping my team succeed and achieve their goals like I did, next step is something regional, which I am working towards and who knows, even higher. The regional step is the key to retiring early, but I may decide to go on more either way when that time comes, depends on life.

[Jesse]

I know I shouldn't, but I feel sorry for you.

Why? I have a pretty good life. I'm sure you do too. You're what, only like an hour from Lake Quinault? When we went up there in September I had forgotten how quickly you get there from Aberdeen.

[MossMan]

Lots of landscapers in here! I worked full time at a golf course for nearly 10yrs and then another 7yrs as a full time landscaper/grounds person at a very large senior community. Now I sit behind a cozy Mercedes Sprinter van and drive all around the state transferring dogs and cats from over crowded shelters to the animal adoption facility I work at to be spayed/neutered and then adopted out. So I get to enjoy the winter view from inside the van each week as I travel over the pass. My body was just starting to breakdown from the daily manual labor (and I didn't take care of my back in my 20's) but I truly loved all my jobs but this current one is my dream job.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lots of landscapers in here! I worked full time at a golf course for nearly 10yrs and then another 7yrs as a full time landscaper/grounds person at a very large senior community. Now I sit behind a cozy Mercedes Sprinter van and drive all around the state transferring dogs and cats from over crowded shelters to the animal adoption facility I work at to be spayed/neutered and then adopted out. So I get to enjoy the winter view from inside the van each week as I travel over the pass. My body was just starting to breakdown from the daily manual labor (and I didn't take care of my back in my 20's) but I truly loved all my jobs but this current one is my dream job.

 

That sounds awesome!

 

Yeah the one thing I realized when I was thinking about staying in manual labor...Even though I was in very good shape in my 20s, there was no way I could do it once I got into my 40s/50s. People that age either own/run the companies or they look like absolutely hell. 

[Deweydog]

I mow my yard frequently. Even rented an aerator last spring.

[Kayla]

Lots of landscapers in here! I worked full time at a golf course for nearly 10yrs and then another 7yrs as a full time landscaper/grounds person at a very large senior community. Now I sit behind a cozy Mercedes Sprinter van and drive all around the state transferring dogs and cats from over crowded shelters to the animal adoption facility I work at to be spayed/neutered and then adopted out. So I get to enjoy the winter view from inside the van each week as I travel over the pass. My body was just starting to breakdown from the daily manual labor (and I didn't take care of my back in my 20's) but I truly loved all my jobs but this current one is my dream job.

 

Huge animal lover here so I thank you for all your hard kind work!

[Jesse]

Lots of landscapers in here! I worked full time at a golf course for nearly 10yrs and then another 7yrs as a full time landscaper/grounds person at a very large senior community. Now I sit behind a cozy Mercedes Sprinter van and drive all around the state transferring dogs and cats from over crowded shelters to the animal adoption facility I work at to be spayed/neutered and then adopted out. So I get to enjoy the winter view from inside the van each week as I travel over the pass. My body was just starting to breakdown from the daily manual labor (and I didn't take care of my back in my 20's) but I truly loved all my jobs but this current one is my dream job.

That's a respectable line of work you do, with the animals shelters. Very important service to the community.

[Deweydog]

That sounds awesome!

 

Yeah the one thing I realized when I was thinking about staying in manual labor...Even though I was in very good shape in my 20s, there was no way I could do it once I got into my 40s/50s. People that age either own/run the companies or they look like absolutely hell.

Old man strength. My dad is 70 and he's always been/still is a mechanic. I swear he has the grip strength of a bench vise. His back paid the price, though

[MossMan]

That sounds awesome!

 

Yeah the one thing I realized when I was thinking about staying in manual labor...Even though I was in very good shape in my 20s, there was no way I could do it once I got into my 40s/50s. People that age either own/run the companies or they look like absolutely hell.

Exactly! I actually moved my way all the way to golf course superintendent...but I still did my share of manual labor on top of the very stressful times of having to constantly make sure that 220 acres remained healthy and trying to keep golfers happy. That aged me 10yrs I swear. Also the one time period I didn't like windstorms, it meant weeks of cleanup.

[GHweatherChris]

Why? I have a pretty good life. I'm sure you do too. You're what, only like an hour from Lake Quinault? When we went up there in September I had forgotten how quickly you get there from Aberdeen.

You missed point.

 

But yea, I am only about an hour to hour and a half from Quinault, 2 hours from Ruby Beach area.

[Phil]

Lots of landscapers in here! I worked full time at a golf course for nearly 10yrs and then another 7yrs as a full time landscaper/grounds person at a very large senior community. Now I sit behind a cozy Mercedes Sprinter van and drive all around the state transferring dogs and cats from over crowded shelters to the animal adoption facility I work at to be spayed/neutered and then adopted out. So I get to enjoy the winter view from inside the van each week as I travel over the pass. My body was just starting to breakdown from the daily manual labor (and I didn't take care of my back in my 20's) but I truly loved all my jobs but this current one is my dream job.

I'm with you, perfect job for a weather freak. I'm honestly considering staying in the landscaping and tree care business even after I complete my degree. I enjoy it too much, and if/when my body gives out, I won't be able to go back.

 

Also, being way up in trees cured my fear of heights. Therapy by exposure, I guess.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

Through HR 48 ridge is already a bit further west from previous runs.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_3.png

[MossMan]

That's a respectable line of work you do, with the animals shelters. Very important service to the community.

Thanks, Jesse!

[Jesse]

Old man strength. My dad is 70 and he's always been/still is a mechanic. I swear he has the grip strength of a bench vise. His back paid the price, though

Is he a weather nut too?

[MossMan]

Huge animal lover here so I thank you for all your hard kind work!

Thanks! It's an amazing and fun job! And I get to travel all over the state which is also such fun! (Btw we transferred in cats in from Willamette Humane just this week since they were getting overcrowded and needed some help)

[TT-SEA]

Is he a weather nut too?

 

My dad gets annoyed when I try to tell what is coming... he says he like being surprised.  

 

My mom always wants to know the details.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 - Some differences already compared to 00z last night

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_4.png

[MossMan]

I mow my yard frequently. Even rented an aerator last spring.

Good job! Way to go getting the oxygen levels up in the soil and alleviating compaction, and hydrophobic soils!

[Deweydog]

Good job! Way to go getting the oxygen levels up in the soil and alleviating compaction, and hydrophobic soils!

Made a huge difference, along with a good overseeding.

[MossMan]

Made a huge difference, along with a good overseeding.

One of the best things you can do for your yard, however golfers were always quite pissy during aerification times. I got flipped off more than once while just trying to keep the greens healthy.

[Deweydog]

Is he a weather nut too?

Not really. He fished commercially growing up and crabbed with my uncle when I was growing up so I grew up with NOAA weather radio out of Astoria. I'm sure that's where I got the bug. I soon got to the point where I thought I knew what I was talking about and he was quick to point out I didn't.

 

Me: "that looks like a snow cloud coming!"

 

My dad: "nope."

[Deweydog]

One of the best things you can do for your yard, however golfers were always quite pissy during aerification times. I got flipped off more than once while just trying to keep the greens healthy.

Yeah, sorry. I've cussed up and down a lot of sandy, aerated greens over the years.

[Weather101]

I don't really care if it gets really cold, just cold enough too snow is fine with me

[Deweydog]

I don't really care if it gets really cold, just cold enough too snow is fine with me

Exactly. I don't need 14 degrees with a foot of snow. 18 degrees with 11.5 inches will suffice.

[HighlandExperience]

I don't really care if it gets really cold, just cold enough too snow is fine with me

I'll be happy with 20 inches and 33 degrees