November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Little bit lost in all the extended range talk is the system moving in later tonight into Thanksgiving day. Looking like some pretty big flooding concerns for the North Oregon coastal areas.

 

12z ECMWF is even showing nearly 3" of rainfall for PDX and nearing 4" on the western fridges of the Willamette Valley over the next 48 hours.

 

Edit: Flood Watch just issued by the NWS for the Willamette Valley and Coastal areas.

 

That front just stalls and dumps tons of rain. 

[Kayla]

That front just stalls and dumps tons of rain. 

 

Sure does.

[Jesse]

Well looking at the ensembles we have pretty much lost the mid-range, but the long range is improving. Carrot meet Stick. 

 

What exactly have we been tracking in the mid-range that has been so great and that is now gone? I feel like you are mainly looking for sub-528 thicknesses/snow at your location.

[Jesse]

That front just stalls and dumps tons of rain. 

 

Could be some epic mountain snow totals in spots. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What exactly have we been tracking in the mid-range that has been so great and that is now gone? I feel like you are mainly looking for sub-528 thicknesses/snow at your location.

 

I am. If a model showed 3-5" of snow at your location you would hope it verified. That looks unlikely now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be some epic mountain snow totals in spots. 

 

Not tomorrow. At least not in Oregon. 

[Jesse]

Not tomorrow. At least not in Oregon. 

 

Washington could get hammered.

[Jesse]

I am. If a model showed 3-5" of snow at your location you would hope it verified. That looks unlikely now. 

 

I hear ya. I still think this will be your snowiest winter in 3-4 years. I also think a lot of it will fall January-March, so you will be here for it!

[Farmboy]

We might not even get a warning shot out of this at this rate.

 

So, no warning shot means the mother-lode of arctic air is just going to plunge down into the Pacific Northwest, with no warning, right?    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hear ya. I still think this will be your snowiest winter in 3-4 years. I also think a lot of it will fall January-March, so you will be here for it!

 

Yay. You know how nervous I am about missing some of the goods! 

[BLI snowman]

12z Euro/GEM don't leave much hope for anything worthwhile through the first week of the month. 

[ShawniganLake]

So, no warning shot means the mother-lode of arctic air is just going to plunge down into the Pacific Northwest, with no warning, right?    

Its 2016 so I am not sure if that is allowed without at least a written warning.  I mean I cant even enjoy a cup of coffee without a warning label in my face.  "Contents may be hot".  No s**t, I ordered a ******* coffee!

[Jesse]

12z Euro/GEM don't leave much hope for anything worthwhile through the first week of the month. 

 

I like the 12Z Euro. Chilly with mountain snows and frost potential in the lowlands toward the early part of next week.

 

The pattern at day 10 looks like it could be setting up for something good later on too.

[Jesse]

Today seems like a pretty good candidate for PDX to score their first sub-50 high.

[ShawniganLake]

I like the 12Z Euro. Chilly with mountain snows and frost potential in the lowlands toward the early part of next week.

 

The pattern at day 10 looks like it could be setting up for something good later on too.

Canadian looks very similar.  Its ensembles look pretty promising after day 10.  Seems like things are getting pushed back right now, which is disappointing/ frustrating. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016112312/gem-ens_z500a_namer_58.png

[HighlandExperience]

[bainbridgekid]

Canadian looks very similar.  Its ensembles look pretty promising after day 10.  Seems like things are getting pushed back right now, which is disappointing/ frustrating. 

 

It's also how almost every major pattern change progresses on the models.

[Jesse]

It's also how almost every major pattern change progresses on the models.

Yeah. I was just about to say something similar.

[Bryant]

Canadian looks very similar. Its ensembles look pretty promising after day 10. Seems like things are getting pushed back right now, which is disappointing/ frustrating.

 

Further they get pushed back, the colder they may trend

[Phil]

I know it's completely unscientific, but I'll be in Chicago Dec. 17th-Jan. 2nd it just feels right we'd get hit while I'm gone. Its confirmation bias, but I swear it finds a way to snow here every single time I leave in the Winter.

 

6 day blast Dec. 17th-22nd it is I guess?

The winter weather you experience in Chicago will probably blow away anything you'd experience in the PNW. So, at least there's that.

[liquidsnow]

It's also how almost every major pattern change progresses on the models.

 

And it will end up like most meteorological mirages where we get some bs pattern that produces warm anomalies.

 

It's like spotting an In-N-Out Burger joint in the distance only for it to actually be a Wendy's. May as well be dead...

[stuffradio]

12Z NAEFS thickness on December 5 for NCEP and CMC drops to low 520s, and CMC rises after that, NCEP keeps going down.

[MossMan]

Yeah. I was just about to say something similar.

I don't know if we have ever had something good show up in the models and it has progressed from day one with no push back...I could be wrong though. People tend to loose hope way too quickly around here!

[Timmy]

I like the 12Z Euro. Chilly with mountain snows and frost potential in the lowlands toward the early part of next week.

 

The pattern at day 10 looks like it could be setting up for something good later on too.

as it has the last several runs...

[Jesse]

as it has the last several runs...

 

Yeah and it totally ruined my day

[ShawniganLake]

Further they get pushed back, the colder they may trend

True.  I have always liked our chances for something good coming in December this year.  I also still think there is a good chance December ends up below average here for the month.  My original thoughts for this winter were below average temps for Dec. and Feb. 

 

My snowfall forecast was:        YVR   20"

                                                  YXX  30"

                               Shawnigan Lake  40"

Hopefully these totals are too low. 

[Weather101]

True. I have always liked our chances for something good coming in December this year. I also still think there is a good chance December ends up below average here for the month. My original thoughts for this winter were below average temps for Dec. and Feb.

 

My snowfall forecast was: YVR 20"

YXX 30"

Shawnigan Lake 40"

Hopefully these totals are too low.

Really? You think YVR will get that much ?

[Timmy]

Yeah and it totally ruined my day

 

wow, you are bitter fella.  

 

and hr 240 doesn't even look good btw.  

[ShawniganLake]

Really? You think YVR will get that much ?

Yes, I think above normal is likely.

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro/GEM don't leave much hope for anything worthwhile through the first week of the month. 

 

The slow descent into cooler anomalies is still on track. Blocking in the general area you want it, just not amplified enough yet.

[Front Ranger]

Its 2016 so I am not sure if that is allowed without at least a written warning.  I mean I cant even enjoy a cup of coffee without a warning label in my face.  "Contents may be hot".  No s**t, I ordered a ******* coffee!

 

Soon weather models will have the following message across the top of the page:

 

WARNING: The model depiction below is not guaranteed to be even close to accurate. Put your hopes and dreams on this model run at your own risk, they may be crushed.

[Front Ranger]

Further they get pushed back, the colder they may trend

 

Closer to January!

[MossMan]

A few members of my family have asked me what I would like for Christmas...I sent them this and told them I want a repeat. Oh and a LazyBoy!

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

758 AM PST THU DEC 25 2008

EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-EVERETT AND VICINITY-

SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-

758 AM PST THU DEC 25 2008

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR WESTERN SNOHOMISH COUNTY...NORTH SEATTLE...AND THE

NORTH PART OF THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS NORTH OF BELLEVUE...WHICH IS

IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

 

A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE NORTH PUGET

SOUND AREA THROUGH ABOUT 1 PM TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES

OF WET SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. THE WARNING AREA EXTENDS

FROM ABOUT ARLINGTON SOUTHWARD TO NORTH SEATTLE...INCLUDING

EVERETT...AND EASTWARD TO THE CASCADES...INCLUDING THE NORTH

BELLEVUE TO REDMOND AREA...UP THROUGH SNOHOMISH AND BACK TO

ARLINGTON.

 

ABOUT 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW HAD FALLEN IN THE BOTHELL TO LAKE CITY

CORRIDOR AS OF 7 AM. THERE WILL BE LULLS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE

INDIVIDUAL SNOW BANDS WEAKEN AND ARE THEN REPLACED WITH A NEW BAND

OF SHOWERS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER 1 PM.

 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THE REST OF TODAY...BUT ARE

NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS INTENSE OR PERSISTENT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX

WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS...BUT THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE ALL SNOW.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

THE HEAVY WET SNOW FALLING ON ALREADY SLOWLY MELTING SNOW WILL

MAKE SLUSHY MIX THAT CAN BE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS FOR DRIVERS. THIS

IS A RECIPE FOR HYDROPLANING EVEN FOR MORE SNOW CAPABLE VEHICLES

IF YOU ARE DRIVING TOO FAST. WATER WILL TEND TO ACCUMULATE IN

RUTS ALREADY CARVED OUT BY PREVIOUS DRIVERS...SO UP TO TWO INCHES

OF STANDING WATER CAN MAKE HYDROPLANING MUCH MORE LIKELY. DRIVE

SLOWER AND MORE CAUTIOUSLY...AND BE PATIENT WITH DRIVERS OF LESS

[crf450ish]

Heading west over Snoqualmie pass yesterday, I didn't see a lick of snow at highway level. The peaks had a dusting. Hoping to see some snow on the highway during the drive back after the holiday.

[IbrChris]

I don't know if we have ever had something good show up in the models and it has progressed from day one with no push back...I could be wrong though. People tend to loose hope way too quickly around here!

Dec 2013 event was foreseeable to some degree as early as Nov 24th. For the most part it trended colder until it reached inside 7 days and then it was minor adjustments (mostly warm) as the models better accounted for terrain in the medium range.

[Jesse]

wow, you are bitter fella.  

 

and hr 240 doesn't even look good btw.  

 

That's the last time I'll throw that one back at you, I promise.

 

I find it funny when someone gives another person flack for the triviality of their concerns when theirs are equally trivial at times, that's all.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z in 1 hour 10 minutes!!!!

 

12z runs, yeah, not so good. I was a bit surprised the ensembles weren't worse. Short-mid term worsened, but long range improved. Some chilly/cold members beyond day 10. Both 12z GFS/CMC ENS 500mb anomalies are unchanged from previous days showing the positive anomaly/ridging retrograding towards 160 W after day 10. That's what we'd want to see. I've been impressive with the remarkable run to run consistency for this. On the operational runs there are a few problems with the 500mb pattern/evolution. The main issue I see is energy moving off Asia is way too strong with one deep low after another racing towards the Aleutians/western AK. They serve to smash down the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska as it tries to build as well as shoves it eastward quickly. However, PNA, EPO look very favorable as we head into December for the east Asian jet to relax and blocking to take over the north Pacific. That's the plan anyways! This is a large scale pattern change with many features, so it is a lot for models to resolve and handle. We may not see any good/cold model runs for awhile. Patience.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dec 2013 event was foreseeable to some degree as early as Nov 24th. For the most part it trended colder until it reached inside 7 days and then it was minor adjustments (mostly warm) as the models better accounted for terrain in the medium range.

 

What did SLE end up at for 850mb temps? Was it -14C or -16C

[BLI snowman]

The slow descent into cooler anomalies is still on track. Blocking in the general area you want it, just not amplified enough yet.

 

Potentially favorable fantasyland potential blocking patterns have definitely been on the increase since 2006 or so. 

[bainbridgekid]

Heading west over Snoqualmie pass yesterday, I didn't see a lick of snow at highway level. The peaks had a dusting. Hoping to see some snow on the highway during the drive back after the holiday.

They got a few inches last night. I bet they'll have close to a foot on the ground by the weekend.