November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[DJ Droppin 8213]

0z ECMWF

Begins in.... 16 minutes

Hoping we see similar 500mb progression as previous runs/GEM solutions and timing moved ahead. We do not want to see any reverting or drifting towards the GFS. I want to see less amplitude of offshore ridge and a strongly amplified Aleutian ridge/with kona/anchor low H/L Rex.

 

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

[Cold front 3]

Dec. 1972 there again.

[Weather101 174]

[hawkstwelve 5459]

Now we get to weed out the weenies. Anyone who didn't expect a few "bad" runs between now and the time-frame we are watching must not follow the models much in the winter months or doesn't want to focus on reality. The fact we have such good agreement among GFS, ECMWF, GEM, etc. should be even more of a clue that the other shoe has to drop at some point.

 

Models always flip-flop before a major pattern change. Only time will tell which solution ends up right. Until then, expect more of the same roller-coaster for the next week or so. As well as more weenies saying, "I knew this would happen! Always does! #Wintercancel".

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Crossing my fingers for a good 0z ECMWF run, and toes, and the very rare, yet ever popular finger/toe crossing combo.

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Now we get to weed out the weenies. Anyone who didn't expect a few "bad" runs between now and the time-frame we are watching must not follow the models much in the winter months or doesn't want to focus on reality. The fact we have such good agreement among GFS, ECMWF, GEM, etc. should be even more of a clue that the other shoe has to drop at some point.

 

Models always flip-flop before a major pattern change. Only time will tell which solution ends up right. Until then, expect more of the same roller-coaster for the next week or so. As well as more weenies saying, "I knew this would happen! Always does! #Wintercancel".

Exactly. It's like I said the other night. We usually see far more flopping than flipping, or a combination of flopping, flipping compared to flippity, floppy, flopping, and definitely it's far more often to see flop, flopping, floppity flips, floppity, flopping where the cold air slides east than anything at all. Ultimately I want to see less flopping, flipping, floppity, flopping, than just straight up floppy, flopped, flopping. In 2008 we saw I believe flipping, flippity, flipping, flips, flippered, flippety consistently with maybe 1 or 2 runs featuring a mix of flip, flippity, floppity flops, then reverting back to pure flip, flippity, flipping which ended up just magical for all of us.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

00z Ensembles notably worse.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

The operational is pretty much in line with the ensembles for the most part. 

[DJ Droppin 8213]

I'm having her take back the long johns.

LOL ! :lol:

[hawkstwelve 5459]

On another note, the 00z GFS ensembles aren't too bad. A lot of members between -5 and -10c. Also like how they aren't all showing bone-dry conditions either.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[DJ Droppin 8213]

00z Ensembles notably worse.

Fairly similar to previous. Still plenty of -5c or colder members. Certainly nothing great.

 

http://i.imgur.com/yEL9pl8.png

[Brennan 807]

 

 

 

Teleconnection Indices forecast

 

-PNA, -EPO tanking as we head into December. Looks great.

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/iNVfer3.png

This not mean anything Phil?

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Jeez. it's as quiet as a fart in church in here now.......

[DJ Droppin 8213]

0z ECMWF - 500mb Day 3

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_4.png

[chopper 918 57]

Looks the same as the 12Z.  Slightly further East.

[snow_wizard 10189]

As of now the 0z GFS is an outlier showing the blocking so far east. Even at that it gets cold.

[chopper 918 57]

It's amazing how much more consistent the Euro is than the GFS...it latched onto this idea 3-4 days ago for the Nov. 29 time period.

[liquidsnow 126]

Jeez. it's as quiet as a fart in church in here now.......

It's like watching a team that's had no recent success fumbling the ball within their own 40. There's still 3 min left on the clock but a big stop is needed to overcome the 7 point deficit.

 

Can we win? The die hards say yes while the others are leaving the building.

[Deweydog 13278]

It's like watching a team that's had no recent success fumbling the ball within their own 40. There's still 3 min left on the clock but a big stop is needed to overcome the 7 point deficit

What the hell?

[DJ Droppin 8213]

It's like watching a team that's had no recent success fumbling the ball within their own 40. There's still 3 min left on the clock but a big stop is needed to overcome the 7 point deficit

The GFS is the Mark Sanchez of models. The "Butt Fumble" of models.

 

http://cdn.inquisitr.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Mark-Sanchez-Jameis-Winston.jpg

[MossMan 9295]

Its raining!!!

[Timmy_Supercell 2023]

Winter cancel?

 

So quick to pull the winter cancel card, with a week left in November.

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Day 5

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_6.png

[Deweydog 13278]

Looks like PDX snuck down into the 40's this evening.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

So quick to pull the winter cancel card, with a week left in November.

 

Tim, you can never pull the winter cancel card to early. Mark Nelsen is somewhere this evening polishing his fork. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

It is getting even quieter in here...

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Day 7 offshore ridge suppressed a bit and Aleutian ridge stronger.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_8.png

[Front Ranger 7373]

Looks loads better than the GFS.

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Looks loads better than the GFS.

Unquestionably

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Day 8

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_9.png

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Day 8

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112600/192/500h_anom.na.png

[Jesse 7705]

Watch it pump up a huge ridge just inland with raging SW flow into the PNW.

Black Friday beatings?

[Front Ranger 7373]

Black Friday beatings?

 

Black and Blue Friday.

[Front Ranger 7373]

Day 8

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112600/192/500h_anom.na.png

 

This is going to end well.

[Jesse 7705]

Of all the posts you respond to, you have to respond to that one, psychopath.

: /

[Deweydog 13278]

This is going to end well.

We're definitely getting good at predicting prediction models.

[ShawniganLake 5259]

Euro is looking okay. Everyone take one step back away from the winter cancel fork.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Don't we all wish the EURO went to 384 hours like the GFS!

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Euro is looking okay. Everyone take one step back away from the winter cancel fork.

 

My heart is pounding! 

[Timmy_Supercell 2023]

Dec. 1972 there again.

 

Are you thinking of a Dec 1972 repeat? That was mighty cold, more so than 2013. More prolonged and a bit colder as well on a few of the days. Within a 3 year period it would be really surprising to have another super cold December.

[Front Ranger 7373]

That is one strong, robust ridge at day 9. The GFS ridge is downright flaccid in comparison.

[DJ Droppin 8213]

6z in 2 hours 33 minutes!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Looking good...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png

[ShawniganLake 5259]

Day 10 is beautiful. Guys and girls we still have the euro.

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Wow. 1057mb Arctic High in Yukon. Major upper level support

Day 9-10

Bitter air sliding south quickly into BC/AB

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_T850_ak_11.png

[Heavy Snow 250]

Looking good...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png

 

[primetime 25]

Days 9-10 on Euro looks like a money setup for lowland snow, right?  Not my area

[DJ Droppin 8213]

Nice to see timing moved ahead some.

[ShawniganLake 5259]

Raining pretty heavy here. WRF shows close to 1" by morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Nice to see timing moved ahead some.

 

Now we just have to get the CFS back on board. How is that JMA looking.