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November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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0z ECMWF

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Hoping we see similar 500mb progression as previous runs/GEM solutions and timing moved ahead. We do not want to see any reverting or drifting towards the GFS. I want to see less amplitude of offshore ridge and a strongly amplified Aleutian ridge/with kona/anchor low H/L Rex.
 
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Dancing outside in pure exuberance! I got a pic of him... The Man is going ape crazy!!    

He's in January.

Did I mention this winter is going to be epic for our Canadian friends?

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Now we get to weed out the weenies. Anyone who didn't expect a few "bad" runs between now and the time-frame we are watching must not follow the models much in the winter months or doesn't want to focus on reality. The fact we have such good agreement among GFS, ECMWF, GEM, etc. should be even more of a clue that the other shoe has to drop at some point.

 

Models always flip-flop before a major pattern change. Only time will tell which solution ends up right. Until then, expect more of the same roller-coaster for the next week or so. As well as more weenies saying, "I knew this would happen! Always does! #Wintercancel".

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Now we get to weed out the weenies. Anyone who didn't expect a few "bad" runs between now and the time-frame we are watching must not follow the models much in the winter months or doesn't want to focus on reality. The fact we have such good agreement among GFS, ECMWF, GEM, etc. should be even more of a clue that the other shoe has to drop at some point.

 

Models always flip-flop before a major pattern change. Only time will tell which solution ends up right. Until then, expect more of the same roller-coaster for the next week or so. As well as more weenies saying, "I knew this would happen! Always does! #Wintercancel".

Exactly. It's like I said the other night. We usually see far more flopping than flipping, or a combination of flopping, flipping compared to flippity, floppy, flopping, and definitely it's far more often to see flop, flopping, floppity flips, floppity, flopping where the cold air slides east than anything at all. Ultimately I want to see less flopping, flipping, floppity, flopping, than just straight up floppy, flopped, flopping. In 2008 we saw I believe flipping, flippity, flipping, flips, flippered, flippety consistently with maybe 1 or 2 runs featuring a mix of flip, flippity, floppity flops, then reverting back to pure flip, flippity, flipping which ended up just magical for all of us.

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00z Ensembles notably worse.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The operational is pretty much in line with the ensembles for the most part. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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As of now the 0z GFS is an outlier showing the blocking so far east. Even at that it gets cold.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Jeez. it's as quiet as a fart in church in here now.......

It's like watching a team that's had no recent success fumbling the ball within their own 40. There's still 3 min left on the clock but a big stop is needed to overcome the 7 point deficit.

 

Can we win? The die hards say yes while the others are leaving the building.

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It's like watching a team that's had no recent success fumbling the ball within their own 40. There's still 3 min left on the clock but a big stop is needed to overcome the 7 point deficit

What the hell?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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It's like watching a team that's had no recent success fumbling the ball within their own 40. There's still 3 min left on the clock but a big stop is needed to overcome the 7 point deficit

The GFS is the Mark Sanchez of models. The "Butt Fumble" of models.

 

http://cdn.inquisitr.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Mark-Sanchez-Jameis-Winston.jpg

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Winter cancel?

 

So quick to pull the winter cancel card, with a week left in November. ;)

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 07.50"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 02.90"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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So quick to pull the winter cancel card, with a week left in November. ;)

 

Tim, you can never pull the winter cancel card to early. Mark Nelsen is somewhere this evening polishing his fork. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It is getting even quieter in here...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Day 7 offshore ridge suppressed a bit and Aleutian ridge stronger.



 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_8.png


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Don't we all wish the EURO went to 384 hours like the GFS!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Euro is looking okay. Everyone take one step back away from the winter cancel fork.

 

My heart is pounding! 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Dec. 1972 there again.

 

Are you thinking of a Dec 1972 repeat? That was mighty cold, more so than 2013. More prolonged and a bit colder as well on a few of the days. Within a 3 year period it would be really surprising to have another super cold December.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 07.50"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 02.90"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Looking good...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Nice to see timing moved ahead some.

 

Now we just have to get the CFS back on board. How is that JMA looking. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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