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November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Gradient Keeper

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I'd have to dig it up again.

 

Looks like -14.1c on the 12z sounding Dec 7, 2013.

 

Okay, that is what I was thinking. That was on the Saturday morning. I think I had a high of 23 that day under sunny skies. Hit 2 that night and a high of 21 the following day under high clouds. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18z in 1 hour 10 minutes!!!!

 

12z runs, yeah, not so good. I was a bit surprised the ensembles weren't worse. Short-mid term worsened, but long range improved. Some chilly/cold members beyond day 10. Both 12z GFS/CMC ENS 500mb anomalies are unchanged from previous days showing the positive anomaly/ridging retrograding towards 160 W after day 10. That's what we'd want to see. I've been impressive with the remarkable run to run consistency for this. On the operational runs there are a few problems with the 500mb pattern/evolution. The main issue I see is energy moving off Asia is way too strong with one deep low after another racing towards the Aleutians/western AK. They serve to smash down the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska as it tries to build as well as shoves it eastward quickly. However, PNA, EPO look very favorable as we head into December for the east Asian jet to relax and blocking to take over the north Pacific. That's the plan anyways! This is a large scale pattern change with many features, so it is a lot for models to resolve and handle. We may not see any good/cold model runs for awhile. Patience.

Ensembles were actually pretty interesting. Most of the members have a fairly strong cold front on Dec 5th, rare to see such an abrupt shift that far out.

 

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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The CFS has a Christmas gift...

 

http://www.wxcaster4.com/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_131HR.gif

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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January is pretty decent too. But the CFS is definitely below average for December. December 5-8 and 11-13th look cool. Then of course what I posted. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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http://www.wxcaster4.com/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_79HR.gif

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Oh check it out guys!!!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_44.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Thought I should do a dry run of these new chains for the work van, I have a feeling I might be using them this winter! And it's cold today, my hands were freezing doing that, time to dust off and put the gloves back in the van.

IMG_5805.JPG

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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18z ALERT ALERT ALERT 18zzzzz

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_46.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Oh check it out guys!!!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_44.png

Now I see blue over my house!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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18z ALERT ALERT ALERT 18zzzzz

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_46.png

The drunk uncle didn't even wait for thanksgiving to show us all his glory!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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It will be fun to see the meteostar on this one...Good times guys. Nice AR starting to set up at hour 384 too...lol

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Carrots!

 

Yum

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I see "arctic blast" is reading this topic...Just waiting to chime in!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yeah, the drunk Uncle really is on the wagon today! Crazy. Watch the Ensembles take a nose dive just to mess with us!

 

Based on the Ensembles, PNA/EPO forecast, and CFS Monthly outlook/ECMWF weeklies my best guess would be cold arriving somewhere around December 3th-7th lasting through Christmas. Some restructuring of NPAC pattern afterwards, then more blasts in January.

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Based on the Ensembles, PNA/EPO forecast, and CFS Monthly outlook/ECMWF weeklies my best guess would be cold arriving somewhere around December 3th-7th lasting through Christmas. Some restructuring of NPAC pattern afterwards, then more blasts in January.

 

Works for me!

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Yeah, the drunk Uncle really is on the wagon today! Crazy. Watch the Ensembles take a nose dive just to mess with us!

 

Based on the Ensembles, PNA/EPO forecast, and CFS Monthly outlook/ECMWF weeklies my best guess would be cold arriving somewhere around December 3th-7th lasting through Christmas. Some restructuring of NPAC pattern afterwards, then more blasts in January.

I really need to learn to space out my "likes" as I have reached my quota for the day.
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Yeah, the drunk Uncle really is on the wagon today! Crazy. Watch the Ensembles take a nose dive just to mess with us!

 

Based on the Ensembles, PNA/EPO forecast, and CFS Monthly outlook/ECMWF weeklies my best guess would be cold arriving somewhere around December 3th-7th lasting through Christmas. Some restructuring of NPAC pattern afterwards, then more blasts in January.

 

Does that  mean just cold or snowy cold? 

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Isn't the first week of December sort of oddly unfavorable time for lowland snow for some reason?   I thought we talked about that a few years back.

 

An unexplained climate anomaly?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18z Ensembles surface temp anomaly at HR 300 surprisingly is in pretty good agreement for a very cold southern BC.

 

The model riding fun has JUST BEGUN. 00z tonight very well could squash any of our hopeful enthusiasm and I think we all realize that. We hope it doesn't, but we also live in reality.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112318/gfs-ens_T2ma_us_52.png

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The 18z is a bit of an outlier on the ensembles lol

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Guest Winterdog

Looking at the 18z ensembles, I think it's safe to say we have zero idea what will happen beyond Dec 5. Anywhere from +9c to -13c. Usually happens when a big pattern change is ahead. My bet is models will continue to flip/flop for the next five/six days.

 

Kind of Trumplike you might say.
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18z Ensembles not as nice as the 12z.

 

It's actually better. 18z control run is an outlier but there are many more cold members than the 12z ensembles.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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