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November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


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Dancing outside in pure exuberance! I got a pic of him... The Man is going ape crazy!!    

He's in January.

Did I mention this winter is going to be epic for our Canadian friends?

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To give you an idea how much progression we've see the past 24hrs which really proves nothing more than timing is moving ahead as it should. I would love to see that continue, and it should tomorrow.

 

Day 10 last night's 00z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112500/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_11.png

 

Tonight's 00z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_11.png

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Now we just have to get the CFS back on board. How is that JMA looking.

I found a site that has the JMA to day 8 and it looks fine there. I thought somebody posted an image from that model 10 days out yesterday. Can't seem to find that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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One thing that gives me some confidence in this thing working out is the amount of anomalous surface high pressure being shown over an ENORMOUS area as we get into week two. A lot to work with to say the least.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I found a site that has the JMA to day 8 and it looks fine there. I thought somebody posted an image from that model 10 days out yesterday. Can't seem to find that.

 

Only day 8, and only runs 12z updates, but looks good

 

http://i.imgur.com/t1m8NCO.png

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Looks like a little storm pulling together off the coast. The GFS shows it splitting in an unusual way with an area of heavier precipitation hitting southern BC tonight and another darting down into California. It seems nearly the entirety of California will get in on this rain; this year has been a nice turn around from the last several years down there.

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I found a site that has the JMA to day 8 and it looks fine there. I thought somebody posted an image from that model 10 days out yesterday. Can't seem to find that.

 

That was me. The 12z JMA runs out to Day 10, the 00z, 06z and 18z only run out to Day 3.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=jma

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f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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I think there's a reasonable chance the trough around day 7 might dig back a little putting cold air in eastern Washington/Columbia Basin. The GEM suggested this possibility too. It would be nice to see a chilly/warning shot before the goods arrive.

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6z through day 10 better than 00z, but not ideal. The ridge was amplified a bit more. There is a healthy Rex Block, but it's just a bit too far east. Timing did move forward. It did feature a nice backdoor cold shot/modified blast into eastern WA, Columbia Basin and it was very close to a massive blast. Studying the past few GFS runs from HR 102-144 I see the key differences compared to the GEM/ECMWF and thus why we're seeing disagreement, lack of continuity. The ridge moving off Asia with the GFS is further south, amplification takes longer to occur/delayed, and energy moving off Kamchatka into the Aleutians is stronger. Overall however the 500mb pattern is really not that different and offers incredible potential. The possibilities are there for a long duration cold spell. Onto the 12z !!!!

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CPC Northern Hemisphere Blocking Forecast

Days 10-14
 
This looks pretty good. Might want the block just a tad further west, and the arctic trough to continue to dig further southwest, but not complaining.
 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/forecast_3_nh.gif
 
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6z GFS Day 8-14 Composite Analog

 

JACKPOT! Now we're talking! :) :o The #1 Analog match is 2008! Correlation score is improving now just under 92%. A lot of cold years showing up.
 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs814.gif
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6z GFS Day 8-14 Composite Analog

 

 

JACKPOT! Now we're talking! :) :o The #1 Analog match is 2008! Correlation score is improving now just under 92%. A lot of cold years showing up.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_06gfs814.gif

Wow! That definitely means the GFS should trend better and look more like the EURO/GEM/JMA.

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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Continue to be uninspired by the GFS

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Continue to be uninspired by the GFS

 

06Z is very decent in the fantasy range. It does seem to have a very complicated pattern around hour 200 or so. The model seems to have issues resolving the complexity of the pattern in the north Pacific, hence its flip flopping. A lot going on there and fairly typical during such a dramatic polar transition. I wouldn't count the GFS out though, it's not a bad model and I've seen it lead the way many times on a pattern I was rooting against.

 

But, given the Euro is showing a pattern that seems more typical, I'd put more weight in it. I just wish the Canadian model wasn't in its camp... it has been terrible this year. It was doing so well after the upgrade in 2013... such a shame.

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Wet snow falling down to sea level along east Vancouver island this morning. Nanaimo and north right now. Looks like I may see a change over as cool air is moving south.

 

My wife woke me up, I thought she was just bugging me but nope. Currently sitting @ 33F

 

CyMeqv-UUAAbtr8.jpg large.jpg

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My wife woke me up, I thought she was just bugging me but nope. Currently sitting @ 33F

 

attachicon.gifCyMeqv-UUAAbtr8.jpg large.jpg

 

Wow!   That is amazing.

 

Not even close here... its 49 now.

 

And its not raining either.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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From Michael Ventrice:

 

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 12 hours ago East Patchogue, NY

Does this count as a strong stratospheric polar vortex even though it's displaced off the North Pole? -80 degree temps

 

http://i.imgur.com/1DU5z4d.jpg

 

Yup, also per Michael Ventrice. GARGANTUAN BLOCK is going to set up shop in the North Pacific at the 11-15 day time frame!  :)

 

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
"Big N Pacific block setting up in 11-15d. This is the start of something new and is reason why w Canada goes cold"

 

http://i.imgur.com/pzV35jP.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/o45yLmI.jpg

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/802500491510837248

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Winter Storm watch posted for the Oregon Cascades. 4-9" of snow tonight. 8-16" tomorrow night into Monday!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Good to see some of our Canadian friends getting a little snow. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12z GFS running!

 

 

Similar to previous runs. Looking for less amplitude of offshore ridge, improved amplification of Aleutian ridge with kona/anchor low for H/L Rex block. We definitely want to see timing moved ahead too. Remember, just because we've seen a really good trend with models/ensembles(Especially GEM/ECMWF) we still have a very long ways to go before this starts look like a real possibility. Think SNOW!!!! Keep the dream alive!

Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)
Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197
North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=471
North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6

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The forum is about to get quite busy I have a feeling...weenies and all!!!

Oh and we are slowly drowning up here again.

It's so bizarre how little rain we have had compared to you the last few days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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No changes or improvements on 6z Ensembles. Not surprised. 500mb positive anomaly remains where we want it though.

The 6z ensemble was colder than the 0z for Seattle at least.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Very impressive cold front draped across extreme SW BC this morning. Currently 54 in Bellingham and mid to upper 30s just NW of there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1.57" overnight here.

 

Wow. What are you up to on the month. I had over 17" in October. 9.66" here in November, average for November here is about 10.5"

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Day 5

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112612/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_21.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112612/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_21.png

 

I noticed on the better GFS runs those Aluetian lows were a lot weaker. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I love how gradual the decent into colder weather has been. Normally things that take their time end up being better in the long run. It will be interesting to see whether the GFS or ECMWF end up being right about the pattern progression in early December. Both get very good, but the GFS just takes longer.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 25

Lows 32 or below = 21

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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To hour 144, it looks....SLIGHTLY better than the 06z. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I love how gradual the decent into colder weather has been. Normally things that take their time end up being better in the long run. It will be interesting to see whether the GFS or ECMWF end up being right about the pattern progression in early December. Both get very good, but the GFS just takes longer.

 

We really haven't descended into colder weather at all...This is going to be a top warm November with no real below average weather in the next 5-6 days. Today will be another day of significant warm anomalies. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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We really haven't descended into colder weather at all...This is going to be a top warm November with no real below average weather in the next 5-6 days. Today will be another day of significant warm anomalies.

Yup

2013/2014 Winter season

Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th

Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th

Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th

Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th

Days below freezing: 5

Total Snowfall: 11 inches

Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches

Days With Snow: 3

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Wow. What are you up to on the month. I had over 17" in October. 9.66" here in November, average for November here is about 10.5"

9.5" for November which is pretty close to average, maybe just slightly above. Nearly 13" in October was almost 3x the normal.
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A slight improvement through hour 210, but not much. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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