November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

-24 to -26C 850s building into AK by day 4.

[stuffradio]

It looks like it's also trying to progress sooner to me.

Like 6 hours sooner?

[Gradient Keeper]

Like 6 hours sooner?

12-16

[Phil]

Yikes..only 96hrs in but can already tell the precursorsory anticyclonic wavebreaking in the NWPAC is much weaker on the 00z GFS. Could be a +EPO or poorly placed ridge scenario if the misalignment continues.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yikes..only 96hrs in but can already tell the precursorsory anticyclonic wavebreaking in the NWPAC is much weaker on the 00z GFS. Could be a +EPO or poorly placed ridge scenario if the misalignment continues.

It'll probably be a stinker of a run through day 9-11.

[luminen]

-32F in Tok, Alaska right now. 

[Gradient Keeper]

-32F in Tok, Alaska right now. 

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, way too much energy being held back in western AK on this run. Anything good will be delayed if it comes at all.

 

On to the superior model!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

High of 49 at PDX! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, way too much energy being held back in western AK on this run. Anything good will be delayed if it comes at all.

 

On to the superior model!

 

Hour 156-180 is 1000-1500' snow levels.

[Gradient Keeper]

Through day 7 a bit chillier than 18z/12z.

[Deweydog]

High of 49 at PDX!

I was about to post that!

 

Late October shocker!!!

[Front Ranger]

Hour 156-180 is 1000-1500' snow levels.

 

Awesome. But you know what we're looking for.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8-9 Much colder in Yukon, Northwest Territories

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Awesome. But you know what we're looking for.

 

And you know what I am looking for.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112400/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_37.png

 

Look how deep that trough digs into the SW!

[Gradient Keeper]

There we go. Big improvements after day 9

[Phil]

Anticyclonic breaking does occur in the GOA, however I don't see anything supplementary wavebreaking downstream or poleward of the ongoing break. So, will be tough.

 

Still a better look than anything we've seen since..August?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Glancing blow at hour 276!

[Front Ranger]

There we go. Big improvements after day 9

 

Ridge is too close and is never able to fully amplify like it would need to deliver an Arctic intrusion. Does deliver some decently cool weather, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_RAIN_NWOREGON.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge is too close and is never able to fully amplify like it would need to deliver an Arctic intrusion. Does deliver some decently cool weather, though.

It was starting to retrograde...I thought it would be a bit cooler than what is shown through day 12.. Not a blast, but cold. Onto the ECMWF! in 49 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

00z wasn't real shabby, but it's only one run. Perhaps the ensembles will be better or the day 6-10/8-14 500mb composite analogs.

[The Swamp]

It looks to be drier and cooler but hell guys, that ridge is bellied up right to the coast line and it's too flat to push the goods into our neck of the woods.  The good stuff will slide east.  Cascades will make sure of that.

 

Let's hope for more amplification and retrogression.

[Bryant]

Hour 156-180 is 1000-1500' snow levels.

Which benefits only a very small group of members

[Phil]

The 00z looks very 1983/84 esque. Under the modeled global progression, most of the country would plunge into the freezer from mid-December right through New Years.

 

Regardless of the current modeling, I think a significant and widespread Arctic blast is likely in late December and/or early January over much of the nation. Exactly where remains to be seen, however.

[Gradient Keeper]

Well, for what it's worth, 00z was certainly colder than 12z/18z through day 7-12..

[liquidsnow]

Well, for what it's worth, 00z was certainly colder than 12z/18z through day 7-12..

 

 

The 500mb pattern stinks though.

 

I say we commence on "Project Ice Cold" which involves dumping a giant cube of dry ice into the Pacific Ocean.

[Gradient Keeper]

The 500mb pattern stinks though.

Yeah, like frosty cow diarrhea

[stuffradio]

Looks like flurries close to sea level for Vancouver next week. Lots of things can change to be more favourable (or worse) for a bigger snow for us and further south.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah, like frosty cow diarrhea

Or frozen cow farts...

[snow_wizard]

Pretty decent 0z. Solid -PNA and certainly chilly. Should be a good PDO dropper. This run emphasizes the -PNA more than the -EPO as compared to previous runs.

[Weather101]

Looks like flurries close to sea level for Vancouver next week. Lots of things can change to be more favourable (or worse) for a bigger snow for us and further south.

I like the sound of that

[snow_wizard]

FWIW I think we are clearly on the right track.

[Deweydog]

FWIW I think we are clearly on the right track.

 

Bye bye, January.  

[stuffradio]

Bye bye, January.

January will still be here the day after December 31, unless there is something I'm not aware of!?

[Deweydog]

January will still be here the day after December 31, unless there is something I'm not aware of!?

 

Enough wave breakers in December and we'll skip right to February.

 

Science.  

[snow_wizard]

Bye bye, January.

Not necessarily. As long as things don't go too crazy in December January will still be on the table. 1949, 1956, and 1968 all had solid warning shots in early to mid December. All went on to have great Januaries.

[Jesse]

Looks like Tokyo received their first November snowfall in 54 years today.

 

I'm guessing the sprawling cold airmass over Eurasia had something to do with it.

[Gradient Keeper]

Well, 00z GFS Day 8-14 Composite Analog isn't bad at all. I expected worse.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif