November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Insanely wet, my driveway is underwater. 43F. Sure hope we get handsomely rewarded for two straight months of rain almost every single day. Today reminds me of 1990 for some reason.

Indeed. As I've stated before extremely wet Oct / Nov combinations almost always lead to good things later on. Quite a correlation there.

[snow_wizard]

What a mild week so far.

It has been considerably cooler here than earlier in the month. We're going the right way. SEA actually had a high below 50 yesterday.

[crf450ish]

Goodmorning. Happy thanksgiving. Let's all stuff ourselves silly today and watch football.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, my temp peaked at 47 a couple hours ago and is now down to 45. Probably my first back to back highs below 50. Which is crazy because my average high is now down to 47. 

[IbrChris]

It looks great. The updated run of the 12z GFS shows a Mammoth North Pacific Block at Day 15. It might be a little too far west but the exact placement will surely change. The most important thing is the Block.

 

Yeah that's not a great pattern at face value...too far west

[MossMan]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z Ensembles aren't bad IMO

[Jesse]

It has been considerably cooler here than earlier in the month. We're going the right way. SEA actually had a high below 50 yesterday.

 

Well I would hope. If we remained as warm as the first half of the month we would be looking at monthly temps 10-15 degrees above average.

 

As it stands now 5-7 is looking like a good bet. PDX is a lock for warmest November on record now with every day basically overachieving by 2-3 degrees over the past week.

[Jesse]

Those parallel lines of thunderstorms hitting the coast overnight and this morning are interesting. Pretty dynamic front.

[Heavy Snow]

Yeah that's not a great pattern at face value...too far west

 

Yeah, move the Block right a little bit and we are in business.

[TT-SEA]

Those parallel lines of thunderstorms hitting the coast overnight and this morning are interesting. Pretty dynamic front.

 

 

Front seems to be focused on SW WA and NW OR.   Heavy looks like its moving this way but it never gets here.

 

Barely sprinkling here all morning... I think weak offshore flow is in place.

[Jesse]

I was just thinking, the only month that we have failed to see top 5 warmth or better in during this three year warmthstravaganza is January.

 

#we'redue

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only 0.05" so far today. Heavy rain just to my NW. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was just thinking, the only month that we have failed to see top 5 warmth or better in during this three year warmthstravaganza is January.

 

#we'redue

 

January 2015 was pretty torchy. 51/37 for the average at SLE. 

[Jesse]

January 2015 was pretty torchy. 51/37 for the average at SLE. 

 

I don't think it was top 5 warmest though. Anything but that is weak sauce in our new climate.

[Deweydog]

I don't think it was top 5 warmest though. Anything but that is weak sauce in our new climate.

Too bad we abandoned the prevalence of warmth several months ago. A bunch of people told me that.

 

January will have to wait for the next warm bubble.

 

#+7in2021

[Jesse]

Too bad we abandoned the prevalence of warmth several months ago. A bunch of people told me that.

 

January will have to wait for the next warm bubble.

 

#+7in2021

Those people were deluding themselves.

[MossMan]

Front seems to be focused on SW WA and NW OR. Heavy looks like its moving this way but it never gets here.

 

Barely sprinkling here all morning... I think weak offshore flow is in place.

We are slowly drowning up here.

[Jesse]

That is an insanely heavy area of rain over Washington County.

[BLI snowman]

I was just thinking, the only month that we have failed to see top 5 warmth or better in during this three year warmthstravaganza is January.

 

#we'redue

 

From an upper level perspective, 2014 and 2015 were both pretty historically mild across the entire West.

[Kayla]

Absolutely pouring here in the West Hills and down to 43º. Could easily approach 3" today. If this front stalls over the area as the Euro forecasted last night things could get a bit concerning later this afternoon.

[Jesse]

From an upper level perspective, 2014 and 2015 were both pretty historically mild across the entire West.

We need something mild enough to scour out the low levels too. Have to appease the warmth gods.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt we are being shadowed here.  I haven't even had a tenth of an inch so far.

[BLI snowman]

We need something mild enough to scour out the low levels too. Have to appease the warmth gods.

 

Something like 1998 would be nice. Appeased the warm gods and got a ton of snow. Takes a lot of pressure off us.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is pretty nippy next week.  One day it shows upper 30s in the afternoon for the East Puget Sound lowlands.  It also indicates lows in the 20s for some places.  Overall though highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s.

[snow_wizard]

We need something mild enough to scour out the low levels too. Have to appease the warmth gods.

 

I think we have pretty much seen the end of it.  The only comparable period is the early 1940s.  Nice to know it has happened before.

 

In a weird sort of way this ultra torch November coming after a reasonably cool late June through October (at least from a 500mb / 850mb perspective) is a good sign since November often runs opposite of the other months of the year.

[Jesse]

The WRF is pretty nippy next week. One day it shows upper 30s in the afternoon for the East Puget Sound lowlands. It also indicates lows in the 20s for some places. Overall though highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s.

I feel like this week was looking cool last week too.

[IbrChris]

Based on the first 23 days of the month as well as the forecast for today through Nov 30th it looks like November should come in right around 51.9 at PDX, which would put it as 2nd warmest behind 52.5 in Nov 1899 and 1st place ahead of Nov 1995 (51.7) in the airport era.

[Jesse]

Based on the first 23 days of the month as well as the forecast for today through Nov 30th it looks like November should come in right around 51.9 at PDX, which would put it as 2nd warmest behind 52.5 in Nov 1899 and 1st place ahead of Nov 1995 (51.7) in the airport era.

Are you using NWS numbers for the rest of the month or raw model output?

[snow_wizard]

I feel like this week was looking cool last week too.

 

It has been reasonably cool here.

[Jesse]

It has been reasonably cool here.

Only 3-5 above average?

[snow_wizard]

Based on the first 23 days of the month as well as the forecast for today through Nov 30th it looks like November should come in right around 51.9 at PDX, which would put it as 2nd warmest behind 52.5 in Nov 1899 and 1st place ahead of Nov 1995 (51.7) in the airport era.

 

I'm reasonably confident SEA will come in below the warmest.

[IbrChris]

Since 2010 we have seen a top 10 warm month in every month except December (records back to 1872)

Portland downtown 1872-1939
Portland airport 1940-present

Jan: 2010 was 6th warmest on record

Feb: 2015 was 2nd warmest

Mar: 2015 was 6th warmest

Apr: 2016 was 3rd warmest

May: 2016 was 7th warmest

Jun: 2015 was warmest

Jul: 2015 was 2nd warmest

Aug: 2014 was warmest

Sep: 2014 was warmest

Oct: 2015 was warmest, 2014 was 2nd warmest

Nov: 2016 was 2nd warmest tentatively
Dec: last top 10 warm was in 1950. We're due!

[snow_wizard]

Only 3-5 above average?

 

If you look at the month on a graph the drop has been considerable.  The WRF is spitting out colder numbers than I've seen so far this season so another good drop coming.  As I've said torching early in the season with cold ENSO is a fabulous sign for the winter.

[IbrChris]

Are you using NWS numbers for the rest of the month or raw model output?

Consensus which averages 45.9.  NWS forecast averages 46.1 tomorrow through Nov 30th. Ensemble mean also averages 46.1

[Jesse]

If you look at the month on a graph the drop has been considerable.  The WRF is spitting out colder numbers than I've seen so far this season so another good drop coming.  As I've said torching early in the season with cold ENSO is a fabulous sign for the winter.

 

Temperatures are supposed to drop in November. It would be weird if they didn't as the month wore on, even in a very warm month like this one.

[TT-SEA]

It has been reasonably cool here.

 

 

There has not been a below normal day this month yet.  

 

SEA is running about +4 since last weekend.   

[snow_wizard]

Since 2010 we have seen a top 10 warm month in every month except December (records back to 1872)

 

Jan: 2010 was 6th warmest on record

Feb: 2015 was 2nd warmest

Mar: 2015 was 6th warmest

Apr: 2016 was 3rd warmest

May: 2016 was 7th warmest

Jun: 2015 was warmest

Jul: 2015 was 2nd warmest

Aug: 2014 was warmest

Sep: 2014 was warmest

Oct: 2015 was warmest, 2014 was 2nd warmest

Nov: 2016 was 2nd warmest tentatively

Dec: last top 10 warm was in 1950. We're due!

 

Are you sure about December?  Up here 2014 was the warmest ever. Were you saying there hasn't been a top 10 warm December since 1950?

[MossMan]

No doubt we are being shadowed here. I haven't even had a tenth of an inch so far.

Still drowning up here.

[snow_wizard]

Temperatures are supposed to drop in November. It would be weird if they didn't as the month wore on, even in a very warm month like this one.

 

You're being kind of impossible here.  The drop has been pretty sharp.