November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 12z EURO is fantastic. We start to see the ridge retrograde at around Day 8 and morph with another ridge forming in the North Pacific. I'm highly confident now that an Arctic Blast is coming for the PNW.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112412/192/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112412/216/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112412/240/500h_anom.na.png

[Jesse]

Since 2010 we have seen a top 10 warm month in every month except December (records back to 1872)

 

Portland downtown 1872-1939

Portland airport 1940-present

 

Jan: 2010 was 6th warmest on record

Feb: 2015 was 2nd warmest

Mar: 2015 was 6th warmest

Apr: 2016 was 3rd warmest

May: 2016 was 7th warmest

Jun: 2015 was warmest

Jul: 2015 was 2nd warmest

Aug: 2014 was warmest

Sep: 2014 was warmest

Oct: 2015 was warmest, 2014 was 2nd warmest

Nov: 2016 was 2nd warmest tentatively

Dec: last top 10 warm was in 1950. We're due!

 

Are you basing these rankings off of PDX, or downtown, or an aggregate of the two?

 

For instance, August 1967 (average of 75.0) and September 1974 (average of 69.0) beat anything PDX has seen for those months in recent years.

 

Same with October 1952 (average of 62 compared with 60.1 in 2014).

 

June 2015 is the only recent month that beats anything both in the downtown period of record and PDX period of record.

[IbrChris]

For sake of comparison, here are occurrences of a top 10 cold month since 2010:

Apr: 2011 was 7th coldest on record

May: 2011 was 7th coldest on record

 

That's it. In fact nothing else since Nov 1993 (8th coldest) and July 1993 (8th coldest).

[snow_wizard]

There has not been a below normal day this month yet.  

 

SEA is running about +4 since last weekend.

There has still been a considerable drop from earlier in the month and further cooling coming...probably below normal. I just get frustrated by people being obtuse about it.

[MossMan]

Love the latest PNA forecast!! Love that dip!!

[Jesse]

You're being kind of impossible here.  The drop has been pretty sharp.

 

Just trying to keep it real. Living in delusion only leads to painful awakenings when things don't work out later.

[snow_wizard]

The updated run of the 12z EURO is fantastic. We start to see the ridge retrograde at around Day 8 and morph with another ridge forming in the North Pacific. I'm highly confident now that an Arctic Blast is coming for the PNW.

Must be wrong according to most on here.

[snow_wizard]

Just trying to keep it real. Living in delusion only leads to painful awakenings when things don't work out later.

You're totally ignoring the unmistakable model trends right now. You're going to feel foolish a week from now.

[IbrChris]

 

Are you sure about December?  Up here 2014 was the warmest ever. Were you saying there hasn't been a top 10 warm December since 1950?

Dec 2014 was 44.7 which would be just below the 10th warmest (1900) at 44.9.

 

Top 10 warmest Dec:

 

1917: 48.4

1875: 47.7

1882: 46.8

1933: 46.7

1950: 46.4

1925: 45.8

1939: 45.6

1886: 45.5

1929: 45.3

1900: 44.9

[snow_wizard]

Love the latest PNA forecast!! Love that dip!!

You're seeing things dude. Nothing good coming.

[snow_wizard]

Dec 2014 was 44.7 which would be just below the 10th warmest (1900) at 44.9.

 

Top 10 warmest Dec:

 

1917: 48.4

1875: 47.7

1882: 46.8

1933: 46.7

1950: 46.4

1925: 45.8

1939: 45.6

1886: 45.5

1929: 45.3

1900: 44.9

Seems a little bit suspect. Looking at records since 1950...2014 was certainly a torch.

[IbrChris]

Are you basing these rankings off of PDX, or downtown, or an aggregate of the two?

 

For instance, August 1967 (average of 75.0) and September 1974 (average of 69.0) beat anything PDX has seen for those months in recent years.

 

Same with October 1952 (average of 62 compared with 60.1 in 2014).

 

June 2015 is the only recent month that beats anything both in the downtown period of record and PDX period of record.

Portland downtown 1872-1939

Portland airport 1940-present

 

In 1940 the airport received "official" station status for Portland, prior to that it was downtown. So for anything after 1940 I utilize airport values. For anything before 1940 I use downtown values (because airport values weren't official from 1937-1939 though there was a station there).

[IbrChris]

Seems a little bit suspect. Looking at records since 1950...2014 was certainly a torch.

Just going off the data available which would put 2014 probably in 11th place (I don't keep a tally after top 10).

[Front Ranger]

I was just thinking, the only month that we have failed to see top 5 warmth or better in during this three year warmthstravaganza is January.

 

#we'redue

 

2015 was top 5 warm at SEA. Of course, SEA is a little silly.

[Jesse]

You're totally ignoring the unmistakable model trends right now. You're going to feel foolish a week from now.

 

I'm not arguing that there are no good changes coming up. Just being honest about where we have been leading up to this. It's hard for me to make too much of the last week "only" being 3-5 degrees above normal after the first half of the month was close to 10.

 

Sure it's a big drop I guess, but we still are in the midst of this incredible torch that we have been saying is going to end any month for about a year now.

[Jesse]

Portland downtown 1872-1939

Portland airport 1940-present

 

In 1940 the airport received "official" station status for Portland, prior to that it was downtown. So for anything after 1940 I utilize airport values. For anything before 1940 I use downtown values (because airport values weren't official from 1937-1939 though there was a station there).

 

Gotcha.

 

I would be interested in seeing those 1937-39 values for PDX at some point.

[Front Ranger]

Too bad we abandoned the prevalence of warmth several months ago. A bunch of people told me that.

 

January will have to wait for the next warm bubble.

 

#+7in2021

 

Yeah, but for awhile we've seen cool or close to average Novembers, despite torching most of the rest of the year. November torching is different in a good way.

 

OLM will not see warmest November on record. 1949 will remain king.

[IbrChris]

Gotcha.

 

I would be interested in seeing those 1937-39 values for PDX at some point.

 

They're over at the Utah Climate Center website.

[IbrChris]

2015 was top 5 warm at SEA. Of course, SEA is a little silly.

POR is quite a bit shorter for Seattle (1894-present) so there's no data for known warm months in Portland like Dec 1875, 1882, 1886, 1900. That would easily bump up other years into top 10 which aren't top 10 for Portland.

[HighlandExperience]

Mountain snow looking sexy at least. 

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF sure looks exciting in the 8-10 day period!   

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls14/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls14-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-MTiCAL.png

[Jesse]

Mountain snow looking sexy at least. 

 

 

Very sexy.

 

Early mountain snow is certainly a change from recent years. I am optimistic.

[Heavy Snow]

Must be wrong according to most on here.

 

Give it a few more days and everybody will be on the train by the end of this Thanksgiving Weekend if models continue to show the goods. The EURO is closing in on a solution. Lots of Arctic air ready to slide on down.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112412/240/850t.na.png

[Front Ranger]

For sake of comparison, here are occurrences of a top 10 cold month since 2010:

 

Apr: 2011 was 7th coldest on record

May: 2011 was 7th coldest on record

 

That's it. In fact nothing else since Nov 1993 (8th coldest) and July 1993 (8th coldest).

 

OLM, free of UHI, has seen a bunch of top 10 cold months in the past 10 years.

[IbrChris]

Another noteworthy record:

Assuming we don't see a day with a high below 51 the rest of the month, Nov 2016 will set a new record for the warmest monthly LoMax (coldest daily high temp). The previous record was 50 in Nov 1995.
Also assuming we don't see a low below 39 the rest of the month, Nov 2016 will tie the record for the warmest monthly HiMin (warmest daily low temp). The prior occurrence was in Nov 1934.

[Jesse]

I think we have pretty much seen the end of it.  The only comparable period is the early 1940s.  Nice to know it has happened before.

 

In a weird sort of way this ultra torch November coming after a reasonably cool late June through October (at least from a 500mb / 850mb perspective) is a good sign since November often runs opposite of the other months of the year.

 

Yup, the 1939-42 period is the only thing I can find that is even close. 

 

Hopefully it will be another 75 years until the next such stretch. Although I fear it will be sooner than that....

[Bryant]

12Z ECMWF sure looks exciting in the 8-10 day period!

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls14/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls14-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-MTiCAL.png

Still looks good to me

[IbrChris]

OLM, free of UHI, has seen a bunch of top 10 cold months in the past 10 years.

Yep and much shorter POR since Priest Point is not really comparable to the airport location, so your POR is basically 1948-present for Olympia or about half that of Portland.

 

Looking at Portland the only top cold months after 1948 were Jan 1950 and Oct 1949, the other ten were prior to 1948.

[Jesse]

Another noteworthy record:

 

Assuming we don't see a day with a high below 51 the rest of the month, Nov 2016 will set a new record for the warmest monthly LoMax (coldest daily high temp). The previous record was 50 in Nov 1995.

Also assuming we don't see a low below 39 the rest of the month, Nov 2016 will tie the record for the warmest monthly HiMin (warmest daily low temp). The prior occurrence was in Nov 1934.

 

Even pessimistic me thinks we will probably see a high in the 40s and a low in the mid-30s at some point between now and the 30th.

 

It's almost December for Christ's sake.

[westcoastexpat]

I believe that December will be a below average month. A November torch across the continent is almost always followed by a cold December across the continent.

 

Can't say the same for the rest of the winter, though. Wouldn't be surprised to see a West Coast Ridge for the latter half of the season.

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF sure looks exciting in the 8-10 day period!   

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls14/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls14-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-MTiCAL.png

 

Blocking ridge just a little too far west and not as amplified as we'd like. Some of the top analogs did indicate this could be the case for December, for the most part.

[Front Ranger]

Yep and much shorter POR since Priest Point is not really comparable to the airport location, so your POR is basically 1948-present for Olympia or about half that of Portland.

 

Looking at Portland the only top cold months after 1948 were Jan 1950 and Oct 1949, the other ten were prior to 1948.

 

True. But of course, anomaly-wise PDX runs warmer compared to their period of record averages than OLM does.

[IbrChris]

Even pessimistic me thinks we will probably see a high in the 40s and a low in the mid-30s at some point between now and the 30th.

 

It's almost December for Christ's sake.

Yes NWS suggests a high of 48 on Sat/Sun but the coldest low is 41 through the end of the month.

[HighlandExperience]

Very sexy.

 

Early mountain snow is certainly a change from recent years. I am optimistic.

 

Right. At the very least we can hope for a fairly normal winter compared to recent seasons. 

[bainbridgekid]

I'm all about bringing weenies together.

Keep it in the bedroom man.

[TT-SEA]

Blocking ridge just a little too far west and not as amplified as we'd like. Some of the top analogs did indicate this could be the case for December, for the most part.

 

 

As long as the block is in place we can call it good... even if the result is 50-degree rain here all winter.     

[Front Ranger]

As long as the block is in place we can call it good... even if the result is 50-degree rain here all winter.     

 

Happy Thanksgiving!

[Jesse]

Yes NWS suggests a high of 48 on Sat/Sun but the coldest low is 41 through the end of the month.

 

NWS is generally pretty conservative on lows. 

[IbrChris]

True. But of course, anomaly-wise PDX runs warmer compared to their period of record averages than OLM does.

 

Yes...I'm not saying in a scenario absent UHI Portland wouldn't have had a 1st place cold month after 1950, but there's no way to know for certain (it's a hypothetical).

[stuffradio]

For sake of comparison, here are occurrences of a top 10 cold month since 2010:

 

Apr: 2011 was 7th coldest on record

May: 2011 was 7th coldest on record

 

That's it. In fact nothing else since Nov 1993 (8th coldest) and July 1993 (8th coldest).

2011 was the year we got some sort of song made for Vancouver. Let me see if I can find it. haha