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11/17 - 11/19 Upper Midwest Autumn Winter Storm

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Is this the first, of many, wintry systems to track this Winter???  Parts of the northern Rockies and Upper Midwest are about to get a significant snowstorm where climo usually tracks these type of beasts.  Might this be the pattern shift we have all been waiting for???  Let's discuss.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111406/gfs_asnow_ncus_23.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016111400/gem_asnow_ncus_23.png

 

 

 

This baby is going to be potent!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111406/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

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gabel23
gabel23

Wasn't going to say anything but now I will. I noticed last night it started to drift a little more south and east. The 12z run is now the furthest it has been yet!! I might be in line for 1-3" of sno

Grizzcoat
Grizzcoat

Yeah it's the GGEM-- but the Cubs won the WS and Trump the presidency!!  

Niko
Niko

What a beautiful storm shaping up to be. I would like a storm like this right after Thanksgiving, towards the end of the month. Although, putting up the lights will be kinda hard. Speaking of lights,

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Really tight isobars. What are winds expexted to be? Looks like blizzard for those folks. Local met is saying some flurries might make it down into IA.

Wind gusts appear to be in the 40-50 mph in the Dakotas.  Certainly blowing and drifting will be a problem.  It may be close to Blizzard Warning criteria.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Interested to see how much actually stays with this assuming a good amount falls. Hoping to see a southeast trend so I can get my holiday spirits up, but either way someone is going to get crushed.

The stronger the storm, it'll pull NW IMO.  Not enough blocking yet up north to shift this storm SE.  I think maybe some wrap around snow/snow showers will be enough to get into the holiday spirits!

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westMJim Veteran

westMJim

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Here in my area this will be a “warm” system with highs on Thursday and Friday well into the 60’s.  There is a chance that West Michigan will see some snow this weekend with a NW flow. I would look for any snow if it does fall to be more inland away from the lake shore as the lakes are too warm for snow right at the lake. Yesterday was yet another sunny day here so now GRR has had 8 clear days 3 partly cloudy day and only 2 cloudy days.  With the high clouds, we have today it should end up in the partly cloudy side. (or maybe cloudy) 

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

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Just talking windy and colder as we will be dry slotted in Central Nebraska according to local mets.  Really hoping for a stormy time during the Thanksgiving Holiday, though not great for those that must travel.  I am taking my 11 year old son to the Nebraska vs. Maryland game in Lincoln this Saturday.  Current forecast says low 40's with a North wind blowing in our faces as we sit in the south stadium.  Warm weather gear will be needed.

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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NOAA saids.....Yes, it will snow here in SEMI, but not amounting to anything, maybe a little bit.

 

Cold air advection will then allow any
lingering showers within wrap-around moisture and with lake
enhancement to change to snow by Saturday night and Sunday. Amounts
would be light (little to no accumulation) as deeper moisture plume
will precede the cold front.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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We may (or may not) catch some LEMood flakes Sun/Monday, but man is this taste of cold going to feel worse with any winds at all  :o

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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We may (or may not) catch some LEMood flakes Sun/Monday, but man is this taste of cold going to feel worse with any winds at all  :o

12z Euro is real chilly in your area.  I bet you see flakes fly!  Both Sat/Sun am 850's are near -8C/-10C..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016111412/ecmwf_T850_ncus_7.png

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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12z Euro is real chilly in your area.  I bet you see flakes fly!  Both Sat/Sun am 850's are near -8C/-10C..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016111412/ecmwf_T850_ncus_7.png

 

All about wind direction and/or residual moisture in these set-ups. We'll see. Was so close already last month to flakes  ;)

 

 

Cyclone77 posted: 

 

Wow, the Euro shows 70-75kts at 900mb immediately behind the departing low over eastern MN from MSP up to Mcgregor at 18z Friday. 

 

Apparently, the Euro's even more robust on this system than the GFS...there goes my theory that the GFS over-amplifies everything lately  :rolleyes:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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gabel23 Experienced

gabel23

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trending E and slightly S. Morning run of Euro.

 

attachicon.gifgraphic.aspx.png

 

00Z GFS--trends with Euro from it's previous runs

 

attachicon.gifsnku_acc.us_nc.png

Way southeast and a tad weaker. Not sure what to think, if it's mid winter I'm thinking this goes from kc to Des Moines; this run goes over Omaha. Just a day ago it was up by Valentine.......that's a 200+ mile shift. I would think since it's November that sounds more realistic......somewhere in north central nebraska. I'm just glad we are finally tracking a storm......its been too long!!

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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Posted

Euro winds. Too bad its the first snow and likely wet and heavy with warm ground temps and that the ditches are not all ready full of snow. But its a D**n good start.

 

 

ecmwfued---usnc-96-A-10mgustarrows.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Euro winds. Too bad its the first snow and likely wet and heavy with warm ground temps and that the ditches are not all ready full of snow. But its a D**n good start.

 

 

attachicon.gifecmwfued---usnc-96-A-10mgustarrows.png

 

Gonna see a LOT of wind headlines if that's anything close to reality. Finally, our windy autumn transition system. A flurry and/or SHSN would be plenty of mood flakes for me personally. Not even Turkey Day, plenty of time over here.. :)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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00z EPS digs this storm a little farther SE and is a tad slower from 24 hours ago...

 

Yesterday's 00z run vs 11/14 00z..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016111500/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_4.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016111400/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_5.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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GEFS are similar as well...not as strong of a storm now which allow it to trend a bit SE.  Takes the SLP towards Euclaire, WI

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111506/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_12.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111506/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_15.png

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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That might put some in Nebraska back in the game Tom.  Local mets. this morning also mentioned a southeast shift.

 

You corn belt peeps, feel free to quote your local NWS disco on this one, k?  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Jaycee Explorer

Jaycee

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Definitely too far east for this but i'd love to see the flakes fly. I really hope I see these graphics a month from now! I haven't really looked, but it's a Colorado low right? Looks like it to me but I can't tell. I just hope we don't get dry slotted, things have been dry for awhile out here.

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

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You corn belt peeps, feel free to quote your local NWS disco on this one, k?  ;)

It was my local ABC meteorologist on the early weather.  He now says the Northwest part of the viewing area of Central Nebraska stands a chance at 2-4 inches which would not include me. Sorry I wasn't more specific, but I usually will quote NWS Hastings or NWS North Platte.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Definitely too far east for this but i'd love to see the flakes fly. I really hope I see these graphics a month from now! I haven't really looked, but it's a Colorado low right? Looks like it to me but I can't tell. I just hope we don't get dry slotted, things have been dry for awhile out here.

It's certainly a CO Low, we will see plenty of these this season.  Guidance in the longer range looks great.

 

12z GGEM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016111512/gem_asnow_ncus_18.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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The first storm we track this season ends up becoming a possible Blizzard!  Blizzard Watch's hoisted for SD/MN and extreme southeast ND...

 

 

 

Blizzard Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 AM CST WED NOV 16 2016

...VERY STRONG WINDS AND SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THAT WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY
EVENING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. EXPECT THE SNOW TO END WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS WISCONSIN.

MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-161900-
/O.NEW.KABR.BZ.A.0002.161118T0600Z-161119T0000Z/
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-
HAMLIN-DEUEL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...ORTONVILLE...BRITTON...
SISSETON...WEBSTER...CLARK...WATERTOWN...MILBANK...HAYTI...
CLEAR LAKE
339 AM CST WED NOV 16 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 5O MPH MAY PRODUCE VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER
MILE OR LESS IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
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Niko Veteran

Niko

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Posted

What a beautiful storm shaping up to be. I would like a storm like this right after Thanksgiving, towards the end of the month. Although, putting up the lights will be kinda hard. Speaking of lights, I have to see what day will be suitable. This Friday would be perfect with temps being near record high territory.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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gabel23 Experienced

gabel23

Posted
Posted

Too capped around here for us to get anything near the low. Shame were getting a dry slot, but a good sign that a storm like this is in the area!

I agree with ya! It's too bad this low wasn't further south east, but it's way too early to complain. I'm liking the pattern that is setting up and we should see tons of blocking with a negative AO. I really think everyone will do real good this year. This storm is pretty dynamic, great start to the winter season!

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gabel23 Experienced

gabel23

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Posted

You know, I drove along hwy 80 about 2 weeks ago and I envisioned what it would look like to have a snowstorm in this area.  I think this season we will all do quite well.

It gets pretty intense around here when we get a storm. There is not much around to stop the snow from blowing around, whiteouts become common place! Enjoy the lovely Arizona weather and have a safe trip back, hopefully you bring us all luck when you fly back!! 

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Posted

:) Hello gorgeous!  Nice to see those words right there..

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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