Tom Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Is this the first, of many, wintry systems to track this Winter??? Parts of the northern Rockies and Upper Midwest are about to get a significant snowstorm where climo usually tracks these type of beasts. Might this be the pattern shift we have all been waiting for??? Let's discuss. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111406/gfs_asnow_ncus_23.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016111400/gem_asnow_ncus_23.png This baby is going to be potent! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111406/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Interested to see how much actually stays with this assuming a good amount falls. Hoping to see a southeast trend so I can get my holiday spirits up, but either way someone is going to get crushed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Really tight isobars. What are winds expexted to be? Looks like blizzard for those folks. Local met is saying some flurries might make it down into IA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Really tight isobars. What are winds expexted to be? Looks like blizzard for those folks. Local met is saying some flurries might make it down into IA.Wind gusts appear to be in the 40-50 mph in the Dakotas. Certainly blowing and drifting will be a problem. It may be close to Blizzard Warning criteria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Interested to see how much actually stays with this assuming a good amount falls. Hoping to see a southeast trend so I can get my holiday spirits up, but either way someone is going to get crushed.The stronger the storm, it'll pull NW IMO. Not enough blocking yet up north to shift this storm SE. I think maybe some wrap around snow/snow showers will be enough to get into the holiday spirits! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Here in my area this will be a “warm” system with highs on Thursday and Friday well into the 60’s. There is a chance that West Michigan will see some snow this weekend with a NW flow. I would look for any snow if it does fall to be more inland away from the lake shore as the lakes are too warm for snow right at the lake. Yesterday was yet another sunny day here so now GRR has had 8 clear days 3 partly cloudy day and only 2 cloudy days. With the high clouds, we have today it should end up in the partly cloudy side. (or maybe cloudy) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Just talking windy and colder as we will be dry slotted in Central Nebraska according to local mets. Really hoping for a stormy time during the Thanksgiving Holiday, though not great for those that must travel. I am taking my 11 year old son to the Nebraska vs. Maryland game in Lincoln this Saturday. Current forecast says low 40's with a North wind blowing in our faces as we sit in the south stadium. Warm weather gear will be needed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 NOAA saids.....Yes, it will snow here in SEMI, but not amounting to anything, maybe a little bit. Cold air advection will then allow anylingering showers within wrap-around moisture and with lakeenhancement to change to snow by Saturday night and Sunday. Amountswould be light (little to no accumulation) as deeper moisture plumewill precede the cold front. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 We may (or may not) catch some LEMood flakes Sun/Monday, but man is this taste of cold going to feel worse with any winds at all Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 We may (or may not) catch some LEMood flakes Sun/Monday, but man is this taste of cold going to feel worse with any winds at all 12z Euro is real chilly in your area. I bet you see flakes fly! Both Sat/Sun am 850's are near -8C/-10C.. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016111412/ecmwf_T850_ncus_7.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 12z Euro is real chilly in your area. I bet you see flakes fly! Both Sat/Sun am 850's are near -8C/-10C.. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016111412/ecmwf_T850_ncus_7.png All about wind direction and/or residual moisture in these set-ups. We'll see. Was so close already last month to flakes Cyclone77 posted: Wow, the Euro shows 70-75kts at 900mb immediately behind the departing low over eastern MN from MSP up to Mcgregor at 18z Friday. Apparently, the Euro's even more robust on this system than the GFS...there goes my theory that the GFS over-amplifies everything lately Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Yeah it's the GGEM-- but the Cubs won the WS and Trump the presidency!! 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 trending E and slightly S. Morning run of Euro. 00Z GFS--trends with Euro from it's previous runs Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 trending E and slightly S. Morning run of Euro. graphic.aspx.png 00Z GFS--trends with Euro from it's previous runs snku_acc.us_nc.pngWay southeast and a tad weaker. Not sure what to think, if it's mid winter I'm thinking this goes from kc to Des Moines; this run goes over Omaha. Just a day ago it was up by Valentine.......that's a 200+ mile shift. I would think since it's November that sounds more realistic......somewhere in north central nebraska. I'm just glad we are finally tracking a storm......its been too long!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Wow to the GGEM. I like the fact we have a storm to track finally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Euro-- this is getting interesting for some on the board. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Euro winds. Too bad its the first snow and likely wet and heavy with warm ground temps and that the ditches are not all ready full of snow. But its a D**n good start. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 How was GGEM? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 How was GGEM?Pretty close to the GFS and EURO. This afternoon's model runs will be very interesting to say the least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Euro winds. Too bad its the first snow and likely wet and heavy with warm ground temps and that the ditches are not all ready full of snow. But its a D**n good start. ecmwfued---usnc-96-A-10mgustarrows.png Gonna see a LOT of wind headlines if that's anything close to reality. Finally, our windy autumn transition system. A flurry and/or SHSN would be plenty of mood flakes for me personally. Not even Turkey Day, plenty of time over here.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 00z EPS digs this storm a little farther SE and is a tad slower from 24 hours ago... Yesterday's 00z run vs 11/14 00z.. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016111500/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_4.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016111400/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_5.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 GEFS are similar as well...not as strong of a storm now which allow it to trend a bit SE. Takes the SLP towards Euclaire, WI http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111506/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_12.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111506/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_15.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 That might put some in Nebraska back in the game Tom. Local mets. this morning also mentioned a southeast shift. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 That might put some in Nebraska back in the game Tom. Local mets. this morning also mentioned a southeast shift. You corn belt peeps, feel free to quote your local NWS disco on this one, k? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Definitely too far east for this but i'd love to see the flakes fly. I really hope I see these graphics a month from now! I haven't really looked, but it's a Colorado low right? Looks like it to me but I can't tell. I just hope we don't get dry slotted, things have been dry for awhile out here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 You corn belt peeps, feel free to quote your local NWS disco on this one, k? It was my local ABC meteorologist on the early weather. He now says the Northwest part of the viewing area of Central Nebraska stands a chance at 2-4 inches which would not include me. Sorry I wasn't more specific, but I usually will quote NWS Hastings or NWS North Platte. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Definitely too far east for this but i'd love to see the flakes fly. I really hope I see these graphics a month from now! I haven't really looked, but it's a Colorado low right? Looks like it to me but I can't tell. I just hope we don't get dry slotted, things have been dry for awhile out here.It's certainly a CO Low, we will see plenty of these this season. Guidance in the longer range looks great. 12z GGEM... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016111512/gem_asnow_ncus_18.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Interested to see how this comes to be. It seems models usually have a period where they show a different solution, but then revert back to the original as the time comes. Mets here also mentioned the possibility of some snow showers late Friday into Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 NWS North Platte NE just issued a Winter Storm Watch. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Arrowhead of MN is going to get crushed by this storm... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111518/gfs_asnow_ncus_26.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 18z GEFS takes SLP just SE from OMA/LNK... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111518/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Im loving the cloudy cold windy forecast. A few snowflakes would be amazing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2016 The first storm we track this season ends up becoming a possible Blizzard! Blizzard Watch's hoisted for SD/MN and extreme southeast ND... Blizzard Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD339 AM CST WED NOV 16 2016...VERY STRONG WINDS AND SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY....A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING WILLSHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAYMORNING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA THURSDAYAFTERNOON...THAT WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THURSDAYEVENING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BEPOSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OFWEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. EXPECT THE SNOW TO END WEST TO EAST FRIDAYAFTERNOON...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS WISCONSIN.MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-161900-/O.NEW.KABR.BZ.A.0002.161118T0600Z-161119T0000Z/TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...ORTONVILLE...BRITTON...SISSETON...WEBSTER...CLARK...WATERTOWN...MILBANK...HAYTI...CLEAR LAKE339 AM CST WED NOV 16 2016...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON.* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.* WINDS/VISIBILITY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITHGUSTS OF 40 TO 5O MPH MAY PRODUCE VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTERMILE OR LESS IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 16, 2016 Report Share Posted November 16, 2016 What a beautiful storm shaping up to be. I would like a storm like this right after Thanksgiving, towards the end of the month. Although, putting up the lights will be kinda hard. Speaking of lights, I have to see what day will be suitable. This Friday would be perfect with temps being near record high territory. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 16, 2016 Report Share Posted November 16, 2016 Too capped around here for us to get anything near the low. Shame were getting a dry slot, but a good sign that a storm like this is in the area! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 16, 2016 Report Share Posted November 16, 2016 Too capped around here for us to get anything near the low. Shame were getting a dry slot, but a good sign that a storm like this is in the area!I agree with ya! It's too bad this low wasn't further south east, but it's way too early to complain. I'm liking the pattern that is setting up and we should see tons of blocking with a negative AO. I really think everyone will do real good this year. This storm is pretty dynamic, great start to the winter season! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 16, 2016 Report Share Posted November 16, 2016 First snowfall map for my area!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2016 First snowfall map for my area!! You know, I drove along hwy 80 about 2 weeks ago and I envisioned what it would look like to have a snowstorm in this area. I think this season we will all do quite well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 16, 2016 Report Share Posted November 16, 2016 You know, I drove along hwy 80 about 2 weeks ago and I envisioned what it would look like to have a snowstorm in this area. I think this season we will all do quite well.It gets pretty intense around here when we get a storm. There is not much around to stop the snow from blowing around, whiteouts become common place! Enjoy the lovely Arizona weather and have a safe trip back, hopefully you bring us all luck when you fly back!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 16, 2016 Report Share Posted November 16, 2016 Hello gorgeous! Nice to see those words right there.. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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