2016-17 Winter Outlook

[Front Ranger]

For the first time in 3 years, I'm making a winter outlook. This should come as a great relief to everyone, as the last two winters were absolutely sucktastic for the PNW (except for southern OR in 2015-16).

 

The factors included in this outlook: ENSO, solar, QBO, PDO, and the fall pattern.

 

MEI is weighted heavier than ONI for ENSO analogs.

 

ENSO analogs: 2008, 2005, 2001, 2000, 1996, 1995, 1989, 1985, 1983, 1981, 1978, 1967, 1966, 1962, 1961, 1960, 1959, 1950

 

Solar analogs (based mainly on TSI): 2010, 2007, 2006, 2005, 1997, 1996, 1995, 1994, 1986, 1985, 1984, 1977, 1976, 1975, 1974, 1965, 1964, 1963, 1955, 1954

 

QBO analogs: 2015, 2013, 2010, 2008, 2006, 2004, 2002, 1999, 1997, 1990, 1987, 1985, 1980, 1978, 1975, 1973, 1971, 1969, 1966, 1963, 1961, 1959, 1957, 1955

 

PDO analogs: 2009, 2006, 2004, 2003, 2002, 1996, 1995, 1992, 1991, 1990, 1989, 1985, 1984, 1981, 1980, 1978, 1974, 1972, 1968, 1965, 1963, 1959, 1958, 1954

 

Fall pattern (based mainly on NH heights): 2007, 2000, 1984, 1981, 1961, 1959, 1953, 1951, 1950

 

Overall best matches: 1950, 1959, 1961, 1963, 1966, 1974, 1978, 1981, 1984, 1985, 1990, 1995, 1996, 2000, 2006, 2008, 2010

 

My top 5 analogs: 1959, 1961, 1966, 1984, 1995

 

 

Rolling forward the "best match analogs": 

 

DEC

 

 

 

JAN

 

 

 

FEB

 

 

 

 

Rolling forward my top 5 analogs:

 

DEC

 

 

 

JAN

 

 

 

FEB

 

 

 

 

Summary:

 

DECEMBER -

 

Overall, the analogs (both the broader and more narrow sets) paint a pretty clear picture. There is a strong signal for upper latitude blocking to continue on the Euro-Asian side of the globe in December. Much of Asia should remain colder than normal, and western Europe will likely turn stormy and cooler. There is a weaker signal for west based -NAO in North America, leading to much more seasonable conditions in the lower 48, and a good chance of below normal temps over parts of the country. Interior Alaska should turn colder, as a Bering Sea/Siberian high funnels some of the cold air from Asia into northern North America.

 

JANUARY -

 

There is a decent signal for -EPO to develop this month, along with a suppressed Pacific jet. In addition, the -NAO shifts further east and north, while the Asian side blocking fades. Overall, a very blocky look to the far northern latitudes. Most of Europe is likely in the freezer, and below normal temps are also likely for much of the U.S., with the greatest chance of major cold in the west/central U.S. The coldest anomalies could actually be in the southern half of the country, with deep penetrating Arctic air masses much more likely than normal.

 

FEBRUARY -

 

To finish out met winter, the analogs insist on -PNA/-NAO. The entire lower 48 is once again at risk for significant Arctic intrusions, with an increased chance for the Midwest and East Coast. The coldest anomalies will likely be found in the northern plains/upper Midwest. Western Europe likely sees some moderation, but eastern Europe may see their coldest temps of the winter this month.

 

All signs continue to point to a very blocky winter for the Northern Hemisphere: +QBO, relatively low solar, weak ENSO, and strong Arctic blocking this fall. We've seen Asia get very cold this autumn, and I believe it's quite likely the main cold shifts to Europe and North America over the winter, especially in Jan/Feb.

[Parksvillewx]

Great outlook! I definitely think this winter will be quite different then the last couple.

[Phil]

Fantastic work. Hope you're on the money.

 

I really like how both of your analog aggregates are similar (from a macroscale standpoint). I always like to see that sort of homogeneity between splicing/timeseries.

[Front Ranger]

Fantastic work. Hope you're on the money.

 

I really like how both of your analog aggregates are similar (from a macroscale standpoint). I always like to see that sort of homogeneity between splicing/timeseries.

 

Yeah, that was reassuring to me as well. It just worked out that way...I had no idea how similar they would be until I picked out the analogs and ran the composites.

[snow_wizard]

Looks really good. A lot of the same years I've been seeing as well. Looks like Jan and Feb are both in play for some decent cold.

[Front Ranger]

Looks really good. A lot of the same years I've been seeing as well. Looks like Jan and Feb are both in play for some decent cold.

 

Yeah, December is as well, just looks like a higher chance of greater cold in Jan/Feb overall. 

 

FWIW, breaking down my top 5 analogs for the PNW...2 got cold in December (1961, 1984), 3 got cold in January (1960, 1962, 1996), and 4 had cold in February or early March (1960, 1962, 1985, 1996).

[BLI snowman]

I do like the midwinter period for our coldest temperature anomalies. Then a break followed by a wet, crappy La Nina March/April.

[OKwx2k4]

Not too sure how you could be missing 1983-84 in so much of all that but definitely can always spot a forecast written in the west vs one written in the east. Overall I like the maps it produced for my area.

[Front Ranger]

Not too sure how you could be missing 1983-84 in so much of all that but definitely can always spot a forecast written in the west vs one written in the east. Overall I like the maps it produced for my area.

 

I did forget to add 1983 to the list of ENSO analogs. However, it's not a good match to QBO, solar, PDO, or the fall pattern.

 

Trust me, I would love a 1983-84 repeat here. 

[OKwx2k4]

I did forget to add 1983 to the list of ENSO analogs. However, it's not a good match to QBO, solar, PDO, or the fall pattern.

 

Trust me, I would love a 1983-84 repeat here.

Sorry. I don't want anyone to think I'm just going to be critical of anything anyone else says just for the sake of doing so. You did good work on that.

[Phil]

I did forget to add 1983 to the list of ENSO analogs. However, it's not a good match to QBO, solar, PDO, or the fall pattern.

 

Trust me, I would love a 1983-84 repeat here.

Yeah, that was also a volcanic year. Great tropical convective match, but a terrible stratospheric match.

[westcoastexpat]

This is a well-reasoned outlook. Great work.

 

Definitely not a slam dunk for the PNW, as that ridge placement offshore could easily snuff us. But it at least opens the door of opportunity.

[westcoastexpat]

I do think that 83-84 and 95-96 ought to be there, though.

[Phil]

I do think that 83-84 and 95-96 ought to be there, though.

Looks like he did include 1995/96.

 

I also don't like 1983/84 as a stratospheric analog. Raging geomag and volcanic forcing there, though the tropics are a decent match IMO.

[Front Ranger]

This is a well-reasoned outlook. Great work.

 

Definitely not a slam dunk for the PNW, as that ridge placement offshore could easily snuff us. But it at least opens the door of opportunity.

 

Thanks. Yep, never a slam dunk, but I will be shocked if we don't see way more Arctic air in the CONUS this winter compared to the last few.

[Phil]

Thanks. Yep, never a slam dunk, but I will be shocked if we don't see way more Arctic air in the CONUS this winter compared to the last few.

Yeah, I think it'd be difficult to do worse than last winter.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, I think it'd be difficult to do worse than last winter.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if the flip in winter anomalies is similar to what we saw from 1999-2000 (then the warmest winter on record, I believe) to 2000-01.

[Black Hole]

So based on all of this, do you have any specific comments for our area?

[Phil]

Tacoman?

Haha, what?

[Jesse]

Haha, what?

Flatiron's name on American Wx I believe.

[Front Ranger]

Tacoman?

 

Yep, posted the outlook there as well. If I bust, I want it to be known as widely as possible.

[Front Ranger]

So based on all of this, do you have any specific comments for our area?

 

Can't speak for yours as much, but I think the odds favor average to below average snowfall here, with near average temps in December, cold to very cold in January and February.