Pre-Thanksgiving & Thanksgiving/Black Friday Wintry Systems

[Tom]

The pattern remains active as yet another system is poised to target the Upper Midwest with a decent snow storm for parts of MN/WI/U.P.  Looks like Stormgeek is in line for a high end advisory event.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112012/gfs_asnow_ncus_17.png

 

 

Another weaker system track a bit farther south and paints some snow for SD/IA/S WI/S MN..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112012/gfs_asnow_ncus_26.png

[Tom]

12z GGEM...colder solution and bringing more snow...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016112012/gem_asnow_ncus_23.png

[Stormgeek]

Definitely looking to be a fun week! Once the energy comes on shore we should hopefully get a better/more consistent idea of what will happen. Looks like the 0C 850's may come close to splitting the twin cities again. However, I should be on the cold side for a change!

[james1976]

Yesterday it was looking like the black Friday system was falling apart. Now its staying together. Could be first snows for some of us. Too bad Ill be out of state.

[Tom]

12z Euro with the 850 0C line down to S WI...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112012/ecmwf_T850_us_4.png

[Niko]

As of now, rain is looking likely for me for Thanksgiving, along with snowshowers mixing in.

[jaster220]

Y'all know where I'll be Thursday, so there's a better chance up there of seeing at least some light snow to add to the festive mood!

[Niko]

A few friends called me up from New York and told me that snow was flying all over the place there yesterday. Even NYC saw flakes. Some in higher terrain saw 6"+.

[Stormgeek]

18z GFS drove the low south a good amount into Iowa. I'm liking that idea as cold air wraps in earlier. It also looks the NAM went south as well.

[james1976]

Snow maps from 18z run?

[james1976]

0z GFS north from 18z

[Tom]

GFS still showing a pretty healthy snow for the Northwoods of Wisco and near MSP/GoSaints area...

.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112106/gfs_asnow_ncus_21.png

[Tom]

12z NAM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016112112/namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png

[jaster220]

@ 12km NAM   Huge diff in Nebraska from GFS 

[Tom]

@ 12km NAM   Huge diff in Nebraska from GFS 

Hopefully this is a year when the models trend snowier/colder instead of vise/versa like last year!

[Jaycee]

Heading up to Red Wing (near Rochester) on the 23rd for Thanksgiving. Looks like I'll miss the snow itself  looking forward to seeing it on the ground though!

[Tom]

Heading up to Red Wing (near Rochester) on the 23rd for Thanksgiving. Looks like I'll miss the snow itself  looking forward to seeing it on the ground though!

If there is snow OTG when I get back on the 30th, won't be to disappointed also.  The beauty of the landscape is what gets me this time of year.    

[Tom]

12z GFS tracking the first SLP south this run through C IL/C IN...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112112/gfs_asnow_ncus_12.png

[Niko]

12z GFS tracking the first SLP south this run through C IL/C IN...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112112/gfs_asnow_ncus_12.png

That is 3" IMBY!

[gosaints]

12z GFS tracking the first SLP south this run through C IL/C IN...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112112/gfs_asnow_ncus_12.png

Would  be a decent storm if we didnt switch to rain tomorrow night

[Tom]

Would be a decent storm if we didnt switch to rain tomorrow night

Hopefully the 0C boundary layer can trend south. Southerly winds won't help though.

[gosaints]

Hopefully the 0C boundary layer can trend south. Southerly winds won't help though.

Ya this time of year I would lean towards a sloppy dusting on the ground at the end if that.

[jaster220]

That is 3" IMBY!

 

Or more??  

 

GFS is letting you and I get in the game during the next few weeks. Power-up that shovel buddy 

 

 

[Niko]

Or more??  

 

GFS is letting you and I get in the game during the next few weeks. Power-up that shovel buddy 

 

20161121 GFS 6z 15day snowfall.PNG

Will do, indeed. Impressive stuff.  

[Tom]

This is one potent system coming out of AZ and heading towards the central Plains.  I got pounded by heavy downpours, hail and high winds out here!  Crazy system.  The central Rockies are finally getting a pretty good back to back dumping of snow.

 

They need it bad, it has been a slow start to the ski season out there.  When I drove through in the beginning of November, the trails were bare brown, some spots were making their own snow.

 

18z NAM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016112118/namconus_asnow_ncus_29.png

[Tom]

If this snowfall can stick around for parts of the Upper Midwest that don't have any snow OTG right now, it would be a good heavy/wet snow to start a good base.  That powder stuff settles way to much.

[Tom]

Looks like Stormgeek is under a low end advisory...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/mpx/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=14247

[Tom]

How's the snow in MSP??  Gosaints getting any action???

[gosaints]

How's the snow in MSP??  Gosaints getting any action???

Wet....

[gosaints]

Rain in minneapolis as well

[Niko]

So far, overcast weather IMBY for Thanksgiving and chilly readings. Rain/Snow mix for Thanksgiving Eve, although, roads will remain wet, not white.

[Stormgeek]

No snow here yet.