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Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out


hlcater

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Decided to start a new thread for systems beyond 5 days. Currently we are heading into an active storm pattern to open up December and a few of those could be respectable snow producers for areas of the sub. Let's Discuss. (may add maps later, on iPad at the moment)

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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I saw Tom's post, but I actually think this is a good compromise thread between systems that have gotten close enough to warrant their own thread, and those that look promising @ d10+  :)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We'll roll with this thread for systems 5+ days out.  12z EPS came in and they take the first system NW towards MSP...second storm still in the 4 corners on the 1st...

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112200/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_8.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112200/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png

 

 

GEFS same thing, but have the second piece coming up the Apps...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112206/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_29.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112206/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_38.png

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I'm noticing the system that we are tracking into the early part of next week, focusing in on the 28th/29th storm, it's correlating well with the powerful storm that hit WA on Oct 15th which tracked into WA ushering 103mph winds on shore.

 

12z GFS showing the storm targeting WA again...42 days later, but not nearly as potent, nonetheless, it fits the pattern...another piece of energy should follow its heels and hit farther south along the west coast towards Cali.  Not sure how this second piece will interact, if there is any interaction, or if the main show will be with the Upper Midwest bomb.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_wus_15.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

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Within the next 1-2 days, we will more than likely start a storm thread for the 28th/29th system...I'm feeling confident enough that this will be a large impacting storm for the northern tier of the sub-forum.  What happens with the secondary energy down near the Gulf is another story.  Would be nice for it to get "picked up" by the occluding low in the Upper Midwest.

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It's funny how quickly things go downhill. A couple of days ago it looked like a foot or more of snow for a big chunk of my area next week, and now nothing but cold rain and a ton of wind unless you go up to ND. But hey, there's still the storm showing up 2 weeks from now on the GFS!

Touche Jeremy, hoping things can come back around over the next few days, would be awesome to get a nice storm the first part of December.

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12z GEFS showing a strong indication the 28th/29th system will end up becoming a very strong occluding low near the Lakes...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112212/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_26.png

 

 

Sits and spins for 3 days...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112212/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_34.png

 

 

What happens with the GOM energy is still up in the air...ensemble guidance takes the energy up through the Apps...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112212/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_37.png

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Lower Lakes/Midwest snow potential with the second system???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112212/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_37.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112212/gfs-ens_T2m_us_41.png

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So, what is the difference between this thread and the other thread..."Preliminary Discussion for upcoming 2016-17 Fall and Winter  season"? I think too many similar threads will cause a confusion among posters. Lets try to keep it simple folks. Just my 2 cents. Carry on.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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So, what is the difference between this thread and the other thread..."Preliminary Discussion for upcoming 2016-17 Fall and Winter season"? I think too many similar threads will cause a confusion among posters. Lets try to keep it simple folks. Just my 2 cents. Carry on.

That one is more for seasonal/monthly discussions. I figure we won't be using it as much as we get into December as tracking storm systems becomes more frequent.

 

If more ppl decide it's to complicated, I'll take it down and move them into our monthly discussion.

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Not a big fan of this thread. Would rather keep it in the month threads. Just my opinion.

Models are a mess. Lol

No hate toward NWLinn for starting it but I agree with this. It gets too confusing imo. I think we should just stick with the one, just my opinion.

 

That's the rub though. As soon as we pass mid-month, these images and disco peeps start up about the 384hr GFS is for the following month, for which there isn't yet a thread. I'll let Tom sort this out LOL, that's what he's paid for.  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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That's the rub though. As soon as we pass mid-month, these images and disco peeps start up about the 384hr GFS is for the following month, for which there isn't yet a thread. I'll let Tom sort this out LOL, that's what he's paid for.  ;)

I wish, all volunteer work here!  I love it though, the weather is a passion of mine.

 

Meantime, 12z Euro seems to want to spin up a snow system for some NE peeps Day 7???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112212/ecmwf_T850_ncus_7.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112212/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_ncus_7.png

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@ Tom

 

:P was j/k but we all want to get paid to do what we love, right? If only. 

 

@ Euro

 

Holy smoked, Nebraska!  I so love windy systems - totally jealous, even if it's just a model map  :lol:

 

EDIT: It resembles the great Armistice Day Storm of 1940 but a bit west:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940_Armistice_Day_Blizzard

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom said:

 

 

 

Sits and spins for 3 days...

 

This would be the 2nd lingering spinner inside 2 weeks. I would love to see that be a trend this winter tbh. Our best and perhaps only shot here in SMI to beat bliz of '78 is to get a strong storm come north (like '78 or '99) then stall out just to our N/NE spinning and dumping LES on top of the system snows. The Feb '85 spinner brought Battle Creek 24" of LES only. It didn't originate south of us, more to the west iirc. A 12+ dumping plus twice that in LES from a stalled LP in the right position is the next "Dream Storm" here. I just don't see the miracle merger that was '78 repeating in my lifetime. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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That's the rub though. As soon as we pass mid-month, these images and disco peeps start up about the 384hr GFS is for the following month, for which there isn't yet a thread. I'll let Tom sort this out LOL, that's what he's paid for.  ;)

its to tom whether he wants to keep it or not. I wouldn't be offended either way.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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CPC not biting yet on wind or SN

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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JMA says wassup! (Gotta love it  :)

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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JMA says wassup! (Gotta love it  :)

 

attachicon.gif20161122 JMA 12z 192hr surf & 500mb.png

I've always liked this model, no matter what it shows.

 

Btw: if that map corroborates, then, look-out. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@ Tom

 

Correct me if I'm off here, but it's the HLB causing these to spin? 

 

Posted by grace:

 

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Tom

 

Correct me if I'm off here, but it's the HLB causing these to spin?

 

Posted by grace:

 

20161122 Euro 12z 500mb & Post about block.PNG

HLB??? I believe it's that nasty looking block near or just N/NE of Hudson Bay. Looks to be a dominate feature over the next 2 weeks. Almost looks like a west-based negative NAO. Those scenarios have been great for our region.

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12z EPS close call for E NE folks...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112212/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_7.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112212/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8.png

 

 

 

The storm digging into the 4 corners Day 10, sparks interest as there should be cold infiltrated into the pattern and not just storm induced cold.   To me, it correlates well with the Oct 19-21st stationary boundary that stretched from the TX Pan Handle region up into S IN.  BTW, nice SE ridge building over where the drought has been dominant upstream from the system.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112212/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112212/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11.png

 

 

 

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HLB??? I believe it's that nasty looking block near or just N/NE of Hudson Bay. Looks to be a dominate feature over the next 2 weeks. Almost looks like a west-based negative NAO. Those scenarios have been great for our region.

 

High Latitude Blocking, so yeah, what you said  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18z GEFS shifted a tad SE...it's expected that there will be tons of shifts back and forth...tbh, these type of events are more interesting to track as models don't have a real clue what to do with occluding storms.  It may very well end up where NE/SD get a good storm out of this up towards MN/WI.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112218/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_24.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112218/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_32.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112218/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_30.png

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GEFS and CFSv2 beginning to show consistency of what will be a piece of the PV coming into N Canada and substantially cooling N.A. after the 8th of December...we're going to start seeing more and more runs of Canada getting filled with plenty of sub-zero cold!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112218/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_61.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112218/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_61.png

 

 

 

 

CFSv2...curious to see, to what extreme, the pattern will look like beyond December 10th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112212/cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_4.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112212/cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_5.png

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112212/cfs-avg_T2maMean_namer_5.png

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@ Tom

 

I want some eye candy for my holiday LOL

 

Can you snag the (old) Euro by any chance and post?

 

 

 

FYI im ignoring the regular ECM run because as of yesterday it should be no longer in production. Not sure when that change takes place on model sites. But if you lived N IN or SEMI youd wish the old 00z ECM was true 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Tom

 

I want some eye candy for my holiday LOL

 

Can you snag the (old) Euro by any chance and post?

Nothing to write home about on last night's run, maybe Okwx can help you out with that old run.  For now, I don't have access to precip maps yet on the Euro.

 

After a brief "head fake" yesterday, CFSv2 hammering down with cold into the lower 48 in a La Nina-ish fashion.  EC ridging looking likely.  Can you spot the storm track???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201612.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201612.gif

 

Not surprisingly, but CFSv2 starting to see 2013-2014 type of cold brewing in western Canada Week 3-4...hopefully this comes true and we can see some phenomenal temp gradients where storms can form and produce some "fluff"! 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

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