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Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out


hlcater

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Michigan bullseyed in the 500mb map, but ground level looks 1917-18 like!

 

 

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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-EPO to the rescue??

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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That second, stronger piece of energy digging into the 4 corners needs to be watched.  The models have put to much emphasis on the first piece that ejected north into the Upper Midwest over the last few days.  I think this energy will be a player as well.  Might have to wait until better sampling is done.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112312/gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png

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???? Explain please

The map Tom posted is the best explanation of what I'm saying that you can get. EPO and -PNA dump the cold off into the west but it's not sustainable to produce the effect it would have with a neutral or slightly positive pna. Also if the AO spikes positive during this time frame the cold source gets further shut off. Need the indices in their opposite states to feed/properly suppress the pattern.

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See that massive block near the Aleutians? As long as its there, the pattern is screwed.

 

 

ecmwf_mslp_sig_noram_41.png

It's transient though. As long as storms come off of East Asia and track through the Bearing Sea, the storms will keep coming. Euro holds that energy in the West way to long Day 9/10 and it gets cut off. There should be a "kicker" storm on its heels.
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It's transient though. As long as storms come off of East Asia and track through the Bearing Sea, the storms will keep coming. Euro holds that energy in the West way to long Day 9/10 and it gets cut off. There should be a "kicker" storm on its heels.

My fear is that even if it does get kicked out, it just cuts and or has no relevant cold to work with. Some more recent runs of the GFS are trying to show a different look down the road but it isn't worth much at 14 days out and the Euro is still crap at 10 days. Not trying to be negative but I just think we're in a pattern delay. Kinda mutes the flip we were expecting.

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That sneaky second piece has been on my radar...

 

Really has no cold air to work with right now though. Need that 1st system to move out faster to get colder air down, but most models are pretty meh on snowfall with it. 

 

GFS bringing the cold down at the end of the run:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112400/384/sfct.conus.png

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Really has no cold air to work with right now though. Need that 1st system to move out faster to get colder air down, but most models are pretty meh on snowfall with it. 

 

GFS bringing the cold down at the end of the run:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112400/384/sfct.conus.png

 

True that, if the first one doesn't move out fast enough, it'll be a waste of a storm for the second piece.  

 

The arctic air starting to fill up in Canada is starting to cycle and a piece of the PV will come on over this side of the Pole.  My target period was December 8th.  Looking good for now.  Hope we can get a snow cover in place.

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True that, if the first one doesn't move out fast enough, it'll be a waste of a storm for the second piece.

 

The arctic air starting to fill up in Canada is starting to cycle and a piece of the PV will come on over this side of the Pole. My target period was December 8th. Looking good for now. Hope we can get a snow cover in place.

December 8th is probably a fair call. Old weather lore in the south says thunder in winter, snow in a week. I guess we'll see if it works. There will definitely be some thunder with that system on the 29th.

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Happy Thanksgiving to everyone here!

 

6z GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112406/126/prateptype_cat.conus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112406/138/prateptype_cat.conus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112406/162/snku_acc.conus.png

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Slight shift east in the main trough over N.A....penetrates farther south into southern Plains towards Okwx....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20161124.201612.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20161124.201612.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20161124.201612.gif

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Wasnt it last year at this time that the CFS was getting ripped?

I confess, it does have a tendency to run warm, but it has been doing very well this year.  In fact, it's been beating the Euro Weeklies with the overall pattern.  I remember in 2013-14 it saw the cold coming long before any other model.  Maybe the upgrade last year or was it the year prior did the model good.

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I confess, it does have a tendency to run warm, but it has been doing very well this year. In fact, it's been beating the Euro Weeklies with the overall pattern. I remember in 2013-14 it saw the cold coming long before any other model. Maybe the upgrade last year or was it the year prior did the model good.

Who knows...... Last winter it ended up being pretty spot on in the upper midwest at least

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JMA Weeklies lining up almost exactly like the CFSv2 weeklies...this would be a winter lovers dream...both models see the trough diving into the west, blocking near Hudson bay and Greenland, jet under cutting the NE PAC ridge during Week's 1 & 2...then Week 3 & 4 it continues with the Greenland Block, but the entire pattern over N.A. may really amplify to the extreme it can go to.

 

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