Election Day - Veteran's Day Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

Alright, Alright, Alright...I think its time to start a thread for this major system that has already begun to target the west and will slowly track into C Cali/Rockies later on Election Day.  Yet again, we have ourselves a powerhouse "Inside Slider" that will take a few days and track along the PNW coast.  This system will dump anywhere from 4-6 FEET of Snow in the Sierra's!  Eventually, this energy will eject out into the Plains and form into a potential Upper MW Blizzard.  What a storm, ay?

  

 

As I mentioned before, I'd LOVE to be in Truckee or Lake Tahoe for this Beast!  Let's discuss...

 

 

@hawkstwelve such a close call for your area...however, our lone member way up in the Arrowhead of MN is looking good!  

 

0z EPS...

[Tom]

0z GEFS...

 

[hawkstwelve]

Yeah some of these modeled snowfall maps would be pretty brutal with my area barely scrounging an inch together while just a couple counties to my NNW will be buried in deep snow. I'm maintaining hope that it will still work out though. Even just a few inches would be great. 

The last couple GFS runs have shown 3-4 inches falling quickly on the tail end of the storm before it moves off to the east. That's probably our best case scenario at this point, besides the possibility of the track being slightly corrected to the SSE at the last minute which I don't find all too promising. Otherwise, most ensembles members keep us between a half inch and 1.5 inch. So close yet so far!

Regardless of how the snow ultimately plays out, I think a more remarkable aspect will be the long-lasting cold this storm ushers in. 06z GEFS doesn't show us breaking out of the 20s until a couple days before Thanksgiving. Even the latest EPS is showing highs barely able to crack 30 during that time period.

Ultimately a very prolonged bout of much below normal temps will probably be what this event will be most remembered for, at least in the Sioux Falls area.

[Clinton]

Some severe weather possible with this one also.

[hawkstwelve]

Dang, 12z GFS moved the storm just a notch to the NW. With that move we have said sayonara to the last model showing more than a couple inches for Sioux Falls. Barring a last minute surprise, looks like we will get a little bit of rain and maybe a half inch of snow but mostly be dry-slotted the entire storm. Tantalizingly close to a major winter storm but not going to cut it.

95% of the state gets solid snow while we barely get an inch. Just my luck.

[CentralNebWeather]

14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Dang, 12z GFS moved the storm just a notch to the NW. With that move we have said sayonara to the last model showing more than a couple inches for Sioux Falls. Barring a last minute surprise, looks like we will get a little bit of rain and maybe a half inch of snow but mostly be dry-slotted the entire storm. Tantalizingly close to a major winter storm but not going to cut it.

95% of the state gets solid snow while we barely get an inch. Just my luck.

I've gotten numb to the dry slot.  It happens so frequently around here, you forget that we used to get these storms in November.  Another Dakotas special.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Dang, 12z GFS moved the storm just a notch to the NW. With that move we have said sayonara to the last model showing more than a couple inches for Sioux Falls. Barring a last minute surprise, looks like we will get a little bit of rain and maybe a half inch of snow but mostly be dry-slotted the entire storm. Tantalizingly close to a major winter storm but not going to cut it.

95% of the state gets solid snow while we barely get an inch. Just my luck.

Had to dbl check your locale. Didn't realize SF was so far SESD. A zoom-up shows how the city limits practically touch NW Iowa border.

[hawkstwelve]

Kind of surprised to see this many GEFS members showing a more favorable, slightly SE track. Appears the operational is now near the northern third of these solutions. 

I guess it ain't over until you can see the whites of the eyes of the storm...

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I've gotten numb to the dry slot.  It happens so frequently around here, you forget that we used to get these storms in November.  Another Dakotas special.

I sympathize but it is the first real snowstorm east of the Rockies N or S. You're no less side-lined than the rest of us not in the Dakotas.

[jaster220]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Kind of surprised to see this many GEFS members showing a more favorable, slightly SE track. Appears the operational is now near the northern third of these solutions. 

I guess it ain't over until you can see the whites of the eyes of the storm...

Still time. Would be nice if some SE adjustments were part of this season's bias.

[hawkstwelve]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Had to dbl check your locale. Didn't realize SF was so far SESD. A zoom-up shows how the city limits practically touch NW Iowa border.

Yup. We lived on the extreme SE side of Sioux Falls when we first moved here and it took only about 10-15 minutes through back country roads to get to Iowa. Super close.

[hawkstwelve]

18z NAM made a slight correction to the SE vs. it's 12z run.

Not quite enough to get us back in the picture but just a couple more of these slight adjustments and we could get somewhere!

 

[jaster220]

More or less a Bliz Watch for ND hardest hit areas:

234 PM CST Mon Nov 7 2022 /134 PM MST Mon Nov 7 2022/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations
  between 6 and 12 inches possible, with the potential for locally
  higher amounts. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Southwest and south central North Dakota and the James
  River Valley.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Strong
  winds may cause widespread blowing snow, significantly reducing
  visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty remains for the areas that could
  receive the heaviest snow. The track of the storm could still
  shift slightly.

 

Fun Fact: DTX's CWA is the least storm prone of any place with such a northern latitude. The current "number of days since issuance of Bliz Warning" is like 3X as long as any other office, lol. Dates back to GHD-1 (11 yrs ago). 

Fun Fact 2: While Chicago is known for its much greater frequency of CAT-5 Big Dog storms, Detroit's #1 is bigger than Chicago's #1 and cleared the 2 footer benchmark. It also featured huge winds resulting in 12 foot drifts in the city! That's almost unimaginable to anyone who's familiar with Motown's lame #winter climo. 

[gabel23]

That’s a screaming jet right over central Nebraska. Might as well get LP supercells and hope for something interesting. 

[Iceresistance]

The GFS still has 40 inches of snow for parts of the Dakotas.  

[Tom]

8 hours ago, gabel23 said:

That’s a screaming jet right over central Nebraska. Might as well get LP supercells and hope for something interesting. 

This line looks very similar to the set up that happened back home in Chicago a few days ago.  You may experience some very strong winds and hopefully some beneficial rain.

 

[Tom]

The picture quality isn’t the best but the Blood Moon looks pretty cool this morning…just a sliver of the Moon was visible.  

[Tom]

Hold onto your Hats!  100mph wind gusts???  Wowza...Love to be there right now in Truckee or Tahoe!

Quote

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
1245 PM PST Mon Nov 7 2022

CAZ072-NVZ002-082300-
/O.CON.KREV.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-221109T1200Z/
Greater Lake Tahoe Area-
Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Stateline,
and Incline Village
1245 PM PST Mon Nov 7 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Additional snow accumulations of 10
  to 20 inches, except 1 to 3 feet above 7000 feet. Winds gusting
  in the lower elevations as high as 55 mph and gusts above 100
  mph along Sierra ridge lines through Tuesday evening.

* WHERE...Greater Lake Tahoe Area.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions will impact commute times over mountain
  passes. Strong winds may damage trees and power lines.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for whiteout conditions and
  subzero wind chills along the foothills and ridgelines of the
  Sierra.

 

[Clinton]

SPC has shifted the risk area further east, it now includes KC and Des Moines.

 

[hawkstwelve]

Well every model has gotten worse for the snow department here, many of them showing us not receiving anything now. Guess we will have to wait until the next round.

Speaking of which the 00z Euro helped fill in the snow gaps a little bit with two systems moving through, one on Monday and one mid next week. At least with the cold hanging around for a while we should hopefully sneak in a way to score a couple inches over the next two weeks or so. 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

Hold onto your Hats!  100mph wind gusts???  Wowza...Love to be there right now in Truckee or Tahoe!

 

Roger Smith saying in his winter outlook per his formula strong storm likelihood is in the upper 10 percentile. And the GL's region will be targeted. Considering Lake Michigan had two full Storm Warning events inside a 3 wk period I would say the trends are a friend to his outlook. 

[Tom]

"Here Blizzard, Blizzard, Blizzard"...the 1st Blitz of the Season where you typically see them this time of year.  The Dakota's Special is in the works...#BismarkBlizzard. #BuildTheGlacier

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
403 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022

NDZ034>036-042-045-046-091815-
/O.UPG.KBIS.WS.A.0006.221110T0300Z-221111T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBIS.BZ.W.0007.221110T0600Z-221111T0600Z/
Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-
Including the cities of Carson, Tappen, Elgin, Linton, Mandan,
Fort Yates, Strasburg, Solen, Selfridge, New Leipzig, Steele, and
Bismarck
403 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 /303 AM MST Wed Nov 9 2022/

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
TO MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
  between 10 and 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Much of south central North Dakota.

* WHEN...From Midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to Midnight CST /11
  PM MST/ Thursday Night.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Widespread
  blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you. Notify a friend or family
member of your travel plans. If you get stranded, stay with your
vehicle. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

[Tom]

Pretty healthy looking winter storm for the Upper MW... @Madtownshould see some backside LES...

 

 

 

[Clinton]

The SPC has adjusted the slight risk area further east.  Most models showing around a 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain for mby.

[Beltrami Island]

I am not sure where these NWS percentages come from, they feel like throwing darts to some degree.  I am at 91% for 6 inches and 58% for 12".  I am guessing what ever falls, in a week it will compact down to 4" or less with no frost in the ground.  If this snow holds through to the heart of the cold season that would be a great base.  

 

[bud2380]

12z GFS.  Super impressive totals in ND.  

 

[Beltrami Island]

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1210 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022

MNZ006-009-120000-
/O.UPG.KFGF.WS.A.0010.221110T1200Z-221112T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KFGF.WS.W.0008.221110T1000Z-221111T1600Z/
Lake Of The Woods-North Beltrami-
Including the cities of Baudette, Red Lake, Redby, and Ponemah
1210 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 6 to 16 inches and ice accumulations of around
  one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Lake Of The Woods and North Beltrami Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Thursday to 10 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of over an inch an hour are
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

[gabel23]

Not good for Aberdeen and the other parts of South Dakota. Such a horrible waste of winterly precip. 
 

Ice Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
203 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022

SDZ006-007-011-100415-
/O.UPG.KABR.WS.W.0004.221110T0000Z-221111T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KABR.IS.W.0001.221110T0000Z-221110T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KABR.WW.Y.0019.221110T1500Z-221111T0000Z/
/O.CON.KABR.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-221110T0000Z/
Brown-Marshall-Day-
Including the cities of Aberdeen, Britton, and Webster
203 PM CST Wed Nov 9 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Ice Storm Warning, significant icing expected.
  Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations
  of one quarter to one half of an inch. Winds gusting as high as
  40 mph. For the first Winter Weather Advisory, freezing rain.
  Additional ice accumulations of a light glaze. For the second
  Winter Weather Advisory, mixed precipitation expected. Total
  snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of
  a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Brown, Marshall and Day Counties.

* WHEN...For the Ice Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 9
  AM CST Thursday. For the first Winter Weather Advisory, until
  6 PM CST this evening. For the second Winter Weather Advisory,
  from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages.

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

[mlgamer]

 

[Clinton]

0z HRRR gives me a nice rain tomorrow evening.  Not much of a chance of severe weather for my area as the thunderstorms look to be behind the cold front.

[gabel23]

Not sure this video does justice but man the low level jet is ripping from the southwest. All that low level moisture is just racing overhead. 65 degrees and 86% humidity in November….

 

 

[Tom]

The models did a great job in terms of snowfall amounts for the mountains out west.  The Sierra's got pummeled with many places reporting 20-40" of Snow and a few locals in the central Sierra's topping out near 50"!  Oh, and Park City, UT got hit with another Big Snow.

 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Got 0.11" overnight as the line barreled through.  Over a 40 degree temperature drop from last evening when it was 74, to now at 7:15 am, it is 29 degrees with a wind chill of 18.  Nice.

[OmahaSnowFan]

68 degrees at 630 and 38 degrees at 10am IMBY.

Dropped 24 degrees in the first 30 minutes.

Had a whopping .01” of rain as the world’s skinniest line of precipitation moved through and that’s it from this one.

[gabel23]

.03" for me on this one. Wohoo. Storm system leaves behind a cold dry air mass and looks like it will be that way for a while. 

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

68 degrees at 630 and 38 degrees at 10am IMBY.

Dropped 24 degrees in the first 30 minutes.

Had a whopping .01” of rain as the world’s skinniest line of precipitation moved through and that’s it from this one.

Mother Nature is just teasing us Nebraskans at this point. Now we have made the sudden move from unseasonably warm and dry, to unseasonably cold and dry... just a lovely weather pattern we are stuck in. 

[Madtown]

43 and scattered thunderstorms so far, today was supposed to be in the 60's

[IMoveALot_Weather]

I wouldn't be super happy in Fargo right now. Whole bunch of ice followed by a whole bunch of dry air.

[james1976]

Fiancée's parents live in Bismarck. 13 inches of snow and 15° as of a couple hours ago.

[Clinton]

Nice band of rain and thunderstorms moving through KC right now.  Models have increased my rainfall totals to 1-1.5 inches tonight.

[Iceresistance]

Cold Front is now through my house, expect a possibility of winter precip for my location tomorrow afternoon!

[jaster220]

Nice.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
618 PM CST THU NOV 10 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HEAVY SNOW       HEBRON                  46.90N 102.05W
11/10/2022  E18.0 INCH       MORTON             ND   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT. SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTED

[Iceresistance]

@Clinton

I briefly thought that you were in Clinton, MO! XD 

[Clinton]

9 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

@Clinton

I briefly thought that you were in Clinton, MO! XD 

Close it's 20 miles south of me lol.

[Madtown]

Still at 42, showers and storms around 

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Close it's 20 miles south of me lol.

Fair enough

[OttumwaSnomow]

Is this complete model failure?  Just unbelievable  terrible  forecast.. im at 1.10 rain. Temp has fallen from 75 to 33 in 6 hrs!   More precip  to come. We have no plows on. No spreaders ready, etc. We trusted the models and that has possibly  put my business  in terrible  predicament?

 

[bud2380]

21 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Is this complete model failure?  Just unbelievable  terrible  forecast.. im at 1.10 rain. Temp has fallen from 75 to 33 in 6 hrs!   More precip  to come. We have no plows on. No spreaders ready, etc. We trusted the models and that has possibly  put my business  in terrible  predicament?

 

Are you saying it’s snowing where you are? What is the model failure you are referring to?  The radar appears to be very similar to what the HRRR was showing today and the Euro. 

[Hawkeye]

Precip here held on longer than models were showing 24 hours ago.  I ended up with another good 0.84" soaking.  The last 0.09" came from sleet.  A couple flakes mixed in, but it was 99% sleet.  The deck is icy.

[bud2380]

I have just over 1.3” of now frozen rain in my gauge. There may have been a brief transition to freezing rain or sleet here as I saw one car with a little ice on their hood. But that’s it. Driveway is clean.