OttumwaSnomow Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Is this complete model failure? Just unbelievable terrible forecast.. im at 1.10 rain. Temp has fallen from 75 to 33 in 6 hrs! More precip to come. We have no plows on. No spreaders ready, etc. We trusted the models and that has possibly put my business in terrible predicament? 1192688387_KDMX-Super-ResReflectivityTilt111_03PM.mp4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 21 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said: Is this complete model failure? Just unbelievable terrible forecast.. im at 1.10 rain. Temp has fallen from 75 to 33 in 6 hrs! More precip to come. We have no plows on. No spreaders ready, etc. We trusted the models and that has possibly put my business in terrible predicament? 1192688387_KDMX-Super-ResReflectivityTilt111_03PM.mp4 Are you saying it’s snowing where you are? What is the model failure you are referring to? The radar appears to be very similar to what the HRRR was showing today and the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Precip here held on longer than models were showing 24 hours ago. I ended up with another good 0.84" soaking. The last 0.09" came from sleet. A couple flakes mixed in, but it was 99% sleet. The deck is icy. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 I have just over 1.3” of now frozen rain in my gauge. There may have been a brief transition to freezing rain or sleet here as I saw one car with a little ice on their hood. But that’s it. Driveway is clean. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 6 hours ago, bud2380 said: Are you saying it’s snowing where you are? What is the model failure you are referring to? The radar appears to be very similar to what the HRRR was showing today and the Euro. Did the hrrr have 1.43 or precip? Or up to 2 inches? If it did I must have missed. Ice on lots of surfaces this am.. maybe I was caught off guard but. I didnt not expect 8 hours of moderate to heavy precip??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 I picked up .80 inches last night. The cold air is firmly here this morning as the temp has dropped to 28. Over the last 3 weeks I have received 5 inches of rain, what a nice change. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 11, 2022 Report Share Posted November 11, 2022 Rainfall totals from around my area, some scored over an inch. The heaviest was just to my NW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 Happy Birthday to me! Currently 27 with light snow and a trace on the ground up here at the MN home! Fiancée's dad said they got 23 inches in Bismarck. Crazy! 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 ^^ Hope your B-day was a good one James! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: I know it all blows into massive drifts separated by bare ground, but still it's nice to see a major metro area get Jack-zoned. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 9 hours ago, james1976 said: Happy Birthday to me! Currently 27 with light snow and a trace on the ground up here at the MN home! Fiancée's dad said they got 23 inches in Bismarck. Crazy! Happy belated B-Day my friend! Glad to hear Mother Nature delivered you some white gold on your B-day. Bonus! This was definitely a Bismack Blizzard magnet...they upped it to 24"! Not a bad way to start off winter, right??? 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 3 hours ago, Tom said: Happy belated B-Day my friend! Glad to hear Mother Nature delivered you some white gold on your B-day. Bonus! This was definitely a Bismack Blizzard magnet...they upped it to 24"! Not a bad way to start off winter, right??? Models did a great job forecasting this storm. The gfs was perfect showing the amounts and track 5+ days out. Something to remember when tracking the next system! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 1 hour ago, gabel23 said: Models did a great job forecasting this storm. The gfs was perfect showing the amounts and track 5+ days out. Something to remember when tracking the next system! They always get it right - elsewhere. Laughable that even the NWS maps had 12-18" here last Feb. Wasn't. Even. Close. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 12, 2022 Report Share Posted November 12, 2022 4 hours ago, jaster220 said: They always get it right - elsewhere. Laughable that even the NWS maps had 12-18" here last Feb. Wasn't. Even. Close. That was so disappointing. Very bad judgement on their end. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 Finished with a total of approximately .25 inches of snow on that event. Just glad it's snowed. Glad real winter is back. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 10 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said: Finished with a total of approximately .25 inches of snow on that event. Just glad it's snowed. Glad real winter is back. Radar said that my area got .4 inches, and I have a video of the snow! 1 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Radar said that my area got .4 inches, and I have a video of the snow! I love it. I'm excited for us this year! I think 11/11/2022 will be remembered as the day winter came back to our era. A new era, if you will. It's been so long since seeing something like this. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said: I love it. I'm excited for us this year! I think 11/11/2022 will be remembered as the day winter came back to our era. A new era, if you will. It's been so long since seeing something like this. I always thought that the 2020 October Ice Storm was the one that kicked off a new era of more winter weather. 1 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 13, 2022 Report Share Posted November 13, 2022 3 hours ago, Iceresistance said: I always thought that the 2020 October Ice Storm was the one that kicked off a new era of more winter weather. You're actually right. I'm just a little bitter over getting left out so many times. If there was a marker event, that's it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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