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Election Day - Veteran's Day Major Winter Storm

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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OttumwaSnomow Experienced

OttumwaSnomow

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Is this complete model failure?  Just unbelievable  terrible  forecast.. im at 1.10 rain. Temp has fallen from 75 to 33 in 6 hrs!   More precip  to come. We have no plows on. No spreaders ready, etc. We trusted the models and that has possibly  put my business  in terrible  predicament?

 

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james1976
james1976

Fiancée's parents live in Bismarck. 13 inches of snow and 15° as of a couple hours ago.

james1976
james1976

Happy Birthday to me! Currently 27 with light snow and a trace on the ground up here at the MN home! Fiancée's dad said they got 23 inches in Bismarck. Crazy!

CentralNebWeather
CentralNebWeather

Got 0.11" overnight as the line barreled through.  Over a 40 degree temperature drop from last evening when it was 74, to now at 7:15 am, it is 29 degrees with a wind chill of 18.  Nice.

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bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

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21 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Is this complete model failure?  Just unbelievable  terrible  forecast.. im at 1.10 rain. Temp has fallen from 75 to 33 in 6 hrs!   More precip  to come. We have no plows on. No spreaders ready, etc. We trusted the models and that has possibly  put my business  in terrible  predicament?

 

Are you saying it’s snowing where you are? What is the model failure you are referring to?  The radar appears to be very similar to what the HRRR was showing today and the Euro. 

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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Precip here held on longer than models were showing 24 hours ago.  I ended up with another good 0.84" soaking.  The last 0.09" came from sleet.  A couple flakes mixed in, but it was 99% sleet.  The deck is icy.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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OttumwaSnomow Experienced

OttumwaSnomow

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6 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Are you saying it’s snowing where you are? What is the model failure you are referring to?  The radar appears to be very similar to what the HRRR was showing today and the Euro. 

Did the hrrr have 1.43 or precip? Or up to 2 inches? If it did I must have missed. Ice on lots of surfaces this am.. maybe I was caught  off guard  but. I didnt not expect  8 hours of moderate to heavy precip???

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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^^ Hope your B-day was a good one James!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

I know it all blows into massive drifts separated by bare ground, but still it's nice to see a major metro area get Jack-zoned. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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9 hours ago, james1976 said:

Happy Birthday to me! Currently 27 with light snow and a trace on the ground up here at the MN home!

Fiancée's dad said they got 23 inches in Bismarck. Crazy!

Happy belated B-Day my friend!  Glad to hear Mother Nature delivered you some white gold on your B-day.  Bonus!

This was definitely a Bismack Blizzard magnet...they upped it to 24"!  Not a bad way to start off winter, right???

Screen Shot 2022-11-12 at 4.02.38 AM.png

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gabel23 Experienced

gabel23

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Happy belated B-Day my friend!  Glad to hear Mother Nature delivered you some white gold on your B-day.  Bonus!

This was definitely a Bismack Blizzard magnet...they upped it to 24"!  Not a bad way to start off winter, right???

Screen Shot 2022-11-12 at 4.02.38 AM.png

Models did a great job forecasting this storm. The gfs was perfect showing the amounts and track 5+ days out. Something to remember when tracking the next system!

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

Models did a great job forecasting this storm. The gfs was perfect showing the amounts and track 5+ days out. Something to remember when tracking the next system!

They always get it right - elsewhere. Laughable that even the NWS maps had 12-18" here last Feb. Wasn't. Even. Close.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

They always get it right - elsewhere. Laughable that even the NWS maps had 12-18" here last Feb. Wasn't. Even. Close.

That was so disappointing. Very bad judgement on their end.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Iceresistance Grand Master

Iceresistance

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10 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Finished with a total of approximately .25 inches of snow on that event. Just glad it's snowed. Glad real winter is back.

Radar said that my area got .4 inches, and I have a video of the snow!

 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

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10 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Radar said that my area got .4 inches, and I have a video of the snow!

 

I love it. I'm excited for us this year!

I think 11/11/2022 will be remembered as the day winter came back to our era. A new era, if you will. It's been so long since seeing something like this.

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Iceresistance Grand Master

Iceresistance

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19 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I love it. I'm excited for us this year!

I think 11/11/2022 will be remembered as the day winter came back to our era. A new era, if you will. It's been so long since seeing something like this.

I always thought that the 2020 October Ice Storm was the one that kicked off a new era of more winter weather. 

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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