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December 2016 Observations and Discussion


OKwx2k4

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With meteorological Winter almost upon us and the holiday season in full gear, tis the season for snow and cold...right???  The last couple Decembers have been lousy for winter weather enthusiasts (like myself), having said that, will this year finally deliver a better outcome???

 

Took a look this morning at the latest CFSv2 run and it has the nation under an ice box. It's been leaning towards a colder west/central CONUS of late, but with the winter pattern transitioning out of an extremely warm fall, and teleconnections supporting blocking...sure looks hopeful that this month could be rocking!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20161126.201612.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20161126.201612.gif

 

 

CFSv2 weeklies look very cold down the road as the NE PAC ridge fires up which has been non existent this entire Fall.  The LRC had a dominant "Pacific Storm Machine" as Gary Lezak outlines, but the seasonal feedback is probably going to flip this pattern in the NE PAC moving forward as Canada fills up with some brutal winter cold.

 

Let's discuss...

 

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.gif

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

 

 

 

 

 

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@ CFS

 

So, now you're flashing the cold signal, but took all our moisture in the OHV away? You're not Grinching us are you??  :huh:

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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CFSv2 10 chunks still advertising a wetter than normal west/central CONUS...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

 

 

That'd be better - thx  Even better if this verifies  :D

 

 

 

WHOOPS, THERE IT IS..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GFS MJO forecast to meander around the cold phases 8/1, not a huge impulse, but holds validity to keep the pattern colder to open December...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif and primarily in Null Phase...

 

 

Euro touches Phase 1, then into Null Phase...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

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I have posted these two Youtube videos  by Charles Russell in the November discussion but there may be some who would like to see a good lake effect snow fall as we head towards the start of meteorological winter.  The two are very typical of a heavy lake effect snows we get here in the Great Lakes area, The videos are from the 11/19/2016 event

Daytime video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_Q0oFmEmZE

 

Nighttime video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkjdaO-8HiI

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That'd be better - thx  Even better if this verifies  :D

 

attachicon.gif20161126 GFS 0z 372hr 2m temps.png

 

WHOOPS, THERE IT IS..

OOooooooo....thats cold! :)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Long way off, but could the PV's main show try to sneak onto this side of the Pole in mid December????

 

Day 15 GEFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016112706/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

 

CFSv2 showing the PV centered north of Hudson Bay just after the Week 2 period...a lot of model volatility expected, esp with the AO...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112700/cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_4.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016112700/cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_5.png

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GFS may be giving us a glimmer of hope in the extended?? Only thing even remotely on tap at this point.

 

USA_PCPPRSTMP_850mb_264.gif

Would be a great west/east CO Low to kick things off in December. Still a ways off but I'm hopeful this will end up something reasonably exciting.

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That storm track looked very familiar.  I took a look back at my notes and on Oct 25th-27th, there was a slow moving SLP that tracked from E NE/N IL/N IN/N OH.  Fits the 42 day cycle and also the cold behind it correlates with the record early split of the PV that started on Oct 27th.  If this storm can lay down the snow, could be looking at some serious cold.

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That's as close to a share the wealth as you can get for everyone north and south of I-80, even down to KC!

Yup....this is a nice looking map for a lot of people on here.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112712/288/snku_acc.us_mw.png

God, I hope this map verifies. :wacko:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The cold after this storm is horrendous. I am at near 5F with near a foot of snow on the ground. If the model can attest to what its showing, then, I am golden. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z JMA...takes a low straight out of the GOM and heads N/NE towards the OV...cold enough for snow on the NW side of the system.  This system is part of the cut-off low that spins near the 4 corners/N Mexico region Day 4-6.

 

If this system does in fact form, IMO, it would correlate with the Oct 19th-21st stationary boundary that lead to a wave of low pressure to form out of the TX Pan Handle and tracked up the OV and bombed out towards NE.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016112712/jma_mslpa_us_8.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016112712/jma_mslpa_us_9.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016112712/jma_T850_us_9.png

 

 

 

12z Euro has the storm but a tad farther east and less amplified...

 

Day 7-8...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112712/ecmwf_mslpa_us_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112712/ecmwf_mslpa_us_9.png

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